HP–LT Variscan metamorphism in the Cubito-Moura schists (Ossa-Morena Zone, southern Iberia)

Multi-equilibrium thermobarometry shows that low-grade metapelites (Cubito-Moura schists) from the Ossa–Morena Zone underwent HP–LT metamorphism from 340–370 °C at 1.0–0.9 GPa to 400–450 °C at 0.8–0.7 GPa. These HP–LT equilibriums were reached by parageneses including white K mica, chlorite and chloritoid, which define the earliest schistosity (S₁) in these rocks. The main foliation in the schists is a crenulation cleavage (S₂), which developed during decompression from 0.8–0.7 to 0.4–0.3 GPa at increasing temperatures from 400–450 °C to 440–465 °C. Fe³⁺ in chlorite decreased greatly during prograde metamorphism from molar fractions of 0.4 determined in syn-S₁ chlorites down to 0.1 in syn-S₂ chlorites. These new data add to previous findings of eclogites in the Moura schists indicating that a pile of allochtonous rocks situated next to the Beja-Acebuches oceanic amphibolites underwent HP–LT metamorphism during the Variscan orogeny. To cite this article: G. Booth-Rea et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Mais comment s'écoule donc un glacier ? Aperçu historique

Ice and snow have often helped physicists understand the world. On the contrary it has taken them a very long time to understand the flow of the glaciers. Naturalists only began to take an interest in glaciers at the beginning of the 19th century during the last phase of glacier advances. When the glacier flow from the upslope direction became obvious, it was then necessary to understand how it flowed. It was only in 1840, the year of the Antarctica ice sheet discovery by Dumont d'Urville, that two books laid the basis for the future field of glaciology: one by Agassiz on the ice age and glaciers, the other one by canon Rendu on glacier theory. During the 19th century, ice flow theories, adopted by most of the leading scientists, were based on melting/refreezing processes. Even though the word ‘fluid’ was first used in 1773 to describe ice, more the 130 years would have to go by before the laws of fluid mechanics were applied to ice. Even now, the parameter of Glen's law, which is used by glaciologists to model ice deformation, can take a very wide range of values, so that no unique ice flow law has yet been defined. To cite this article: F. Rémy, L. Testut, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Les failles récentes des Grands-Moulins (Savoie) : un Sackung (tassement gravitaire) majeur dans les Alpes françaises

In Savoy, the Grands-Moulins recent fault scarps, previously interpreted as seismic fault ruptures, are in fact part of a major Sackung (deep seated gravitational spreading) of the French Alps (9 km long). We mapped more than 60 sackung scarps, some of them reaching 1330 m long and 30 m high. These antislope scarps stop the active screes and offset relict Dryassic rock glaciers by 16 m. We present geomorphologic observations attesting for their gravitational origin. This Sackung is primarily due to glacial debuttressing, while seismic shaking could be a triggering mechanism. To cite this article: J.-C. Hippolyte et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Enregistrement de la variabilité hydroclimatique au cours des 6500 dernières années sur le littoral de Cabo Frio (Rio de Janeiro,Brésil)

This study concerns a core collected in Brejo do Espinho's lagoon from Cabo Frio littoral (Brazil) submitted to dry influence of local upwelling controlled by north-east trade winds from the South Atlantic and particularly strengthened during El Niño events. Diatoms study supported by sedimentological and isotopic analyses shows dry phases infrequent before 4000 yr, a highly variable climatic phase between 3600 and 2900 yr and from 2400 yr onward a dryness enhancement. To cite this article: B. Laslandes et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Évolution de l'onde semi-diurne M2 de la marée à Brest de 1846 à 2005

The work of searching, recovering and quality control of ancient sea-level measurements at Brest is presented. This work enables us to complete a study carried out by Cartwright in 1972, which showed a decrease in the tidal M2 semi-diurnal amplitude of 1% per century. After including these ancient data, as well as the last four decades of observations in the analysis, our results show an increase of the amplitude of M2 after 1960 and a decrease before 1880, suggesting a long-period oscillation rather than a steady secular trend. To cite this article: N. Pouvreau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico

Significant intrusion of geothermal water into fresh groundwater takes place in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico. The decline in the potentiometric surface due to the overexploitation of the groundwater induces this intrusion. This hydrological system comprises three aquifers located in Plio-Quaternary volcanic sediments and Mesozoic calcareous rocks. The hydraulic balance of the aquifer shows that the annual output exceeds the natural inputs by 12 million m³. Between 1973 and 2002, a drop in the potentiometric surface, with an 80 m cone of depression, was identified in a 5-km-wide area located southwest of the city of Puebla. Chemical analyses performed on water samples since 1990 have shown an increase in total dissolved solids (TDS) of more than 500 mg/L, coinciding with the region showing a cone of depression in the potentiometric surface. A three-dimensional flow and transport model, based on the hydrogeological and geophysical studies, was computed by using the MODFLOW and MT3D software. This model reproduces the evolution of the aquifer system during the last 30 years and predicts for 2010 an additional drawdown in the potentiometric surface of 15 m, and an increase in the geothermal water intrusion.     

Surface temperature differences between minerals in crystalline rocks: Implications for granular disaggregation of granites through thermal fatigue

Thermal expansion differences between minerals within rocks under insolation have previously been assumed to drive breakdown by means of granular disaggregation. However, there have been no definitive demonstrations of the efficacy of this weathering mechanism. Different surface temperatures between minerals should magnify thermal expansion differences, and thus subject adjacent minerals to repeated stresses that might cause breakdown through fatigue failure. This work confirms the existence of surface temperature differences between minerals in granitic rocks under simulated short-term temperature fluctuations so as to discriminate their potential for initiating granular disaggregation. The influence of colour, as a surrogate for albedo, and crystal size, as a function of thermal mass are specifically identified because of their ease of quantification. Four rock types with a range of these properties were examined, and subjected to repeated short-term temperature cycles by radiative heating and cooling under laboratory conditions. Results show that while albedo is the main control for overall and individual maximum temperatures, crystal size is the main factor controlling higher temperature differences between minerals. Thus, stones with large differences of mineral sizes can undergo magnified stresses due to thermal expansion differences.