The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.     

Ice-Core Study of the Link between Sea-Salt Aerosol,Sea-Ice Cover and Climate in the Antarctic Peninsula Area

Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or ¹⁸O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s.     

Investigating the Halogen Chemistry From High-Latitude Nighttime Stratospheric Measurements of OClO and NO2

Two cases of simultaneous nighttime measurements of NO₂ and OClO in the winter polar stratosphere are analyzed in order to test our present knowledge of halogen chemistry in the presence of high amount of NO₂ at low temperature. Comparisons with Lagrangian model calculations using several hypotheses are performed. First simulations, using the admitted constant rates of chemical reaction, strongly underestimate the measured OClO while the NO₂ profiles are correctly reproduced. If uncertainties in actinic fluxes calculations are taken into account, simulation results do not show a significant reduction of the underestimation. A better agreement can be achieved if the formation of unstable isomers of ClONO₂ and of BrONO₂ occurs in the cold conditions of the polar stratosphere. An approximate value of the branching ratios of the channels leading to ClONO₂ and ClOONO, and to BrONO₂ and BrOONO, necessary to reproduce both OClO and NO₂ is given and discussed.     

Geochemistry of Pliocene/Pleistocene basalts along the Central Anatolian Fault Zone (CAFZ), Turkey

Abstract

Pliocene-Pleistocene volcanism accompanied strike-slip-related transtensional deformation along the K?z?l?rmak fault segment of the Central Anatolian fault zone (CAFZ) in the west of ?ark??la (Sivas-central Turkey). These volcanic rocks are represented by alkali olivine basalts. They can be divided into four different sub-groups on the basis of their Zr, Nb, TiO₂ contents. A primitive mantle-normalized incompatible trace element diagram for four subgroups shows close similarity to typical OIB pattern. Some of the incompatible trace element ratios (Ce/Y, Zr/Nb, La/Ba, La/Nb) are also akin to OIB values. Highly fractionated REE patterns (La/Yb_N=24.7–9.2) with no Eu anomaly are the main features of the alkali basalts and are comparable to alkaline volcanism in continental rift zones. On the basis of Al₂O₃/TiO₂, Nb/Y, Zr/Y Zr/Nb ratios, the geochemical differences among four sub-groups can be explained by variable degrees of partial melting of compositionally similar mantle source. Th/Nb, Th/Y, Nb/Y ratios and the primitive mantle-normalized trace element diagram suggests significant amount of crustal involvement for most of the alkali olivine basalts erupted along the CAFZ. Rupture of the continental lithosphere by strike-slip-related transtensional deformation might have caused decompressional partial melting of the asthenospheric mantle and generating alkali olivine basalts in this region. © 2001 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS.     

Late Mesozoic compressional to extensional tectonics in the Yiwulüshan massif,NE China and their bearing on the Yinshan–Yanshan orogenic belt: Part II: Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and gravity modeling

Granitoids play an important role in deciphering both crustal growth and tectonic evolution of Earth. In the eastern end of the Yinshan–Yanshan belt of North China Craton, the Yiwulüshan massif is a typical region that presents the tectonic evolution features of this belt. Our field work on the host rocks has demonstrated two phases of opposite tectonics: compressional and extensional, however, the deformation is almost invisible in the intrusive rocks. To improve the understanding of the tectonic evolution of the Yiwulüshan massif and the Late Mesozoic tectonics of East Asia, a multidisciplinary study has been carried out. In this study, anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and gravity modeling have been applied on these Jurassic plutons (Lüshan, Jishilazi and Guanyindong), which intrude into the Yiwulüshan massif. According to laboratory measurements and microscopic observations on thin sections, the AMS of the Yiwulüshan massif is characterized by secondary fabrics, indicating that the intensive post solidus deformation has reset the (primary) magmatic magnetic fabrics. A relatively gentle NW dipping magnetic foliation has been identified with two distinct groups of magnetic lineations of N34°E and N335°E orientations, namely L_M1 and L_M2, relatively. Gravity modeling reveals a southward thinning of the massif with a possible feeding zone rooted in the northern part of the massif. Integrating all results from structural observation, geochronological investigation, AMS measurement and gravity modeling, two tectonic phases have been identified in the Yiwulüshan massif, posterior to the Jurassic (180–160 Ma) magmatism in the Yinshan–Yanshan area. The early one concerns a Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous (~ 141 Ma) compressional event with a top-to-the-south to southwest sense of shear. The second one shows an Early Cretaceous (~ 126 Ma) NW–SE ductile extensional shearing. At that time, sedimentary basins widened and Jurassic plutons started to be deformed under post solidus conditions. In fact, the NW–SE trend of the maximum stretching direction is a general feature of East Asian continent during Late Mesozoic.     

云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震的完全库仑破裂应力变化与后续地震的动态、静态应力触发

计算和研究了1988年云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震产生的完全库仑破裂应力变化的时空演化图像, 对继澜沧地震13 min后发生的耿马M7.2地震的应力触发问题进行了分析, 同时也对澜沧-耿马地震后24 d内发生的Ms5.0~6.9后续强余震的应力触发问题进行了探讨. 结果显示, 澜沧地震断层破裂产生的完全库仑破裂应力变化空间分布图像具有很强的非对称性, 正值的动态和静态库仑破裂应力变化区域均具有与强余震分布位置吻合较好的现象. 耿马Ms7.2地震受到了澜沧Ms7.6地震产生动态和静态库仑破裂应力的触发作用; 绝大多数后续强余震受到了动、静态库仑破裂应力的综合触发作用.     

Seismic,petrologic, and geodetic analyses of the 1999 dome-forming eruption of Guagua Pichincha volcano,Ecuador

Guagua Pichincha, located 14 km west of Quito, Ecuador, is a stratovolcano bisected by a horseshoe-shaped caldera. In 1999, after some months of phreatic activity, Guagua Pichincha entered into an eruptive period characterized by the extrusion of several dacitic domes, vulcanian eruptions, and pyroclastic flows. We estimated the three-dimensional (3-D) P-wave velocity structure beneath Guagua Pichincha using a tomographic inversion method based on finite-difference calculations of first-arrival times. Hypocenters of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes and long-period (LP) events were relocated using the 3-D P-wave velocity model. A low-velocity anomaly exists beneath the caldera and may represent an active volcanic conduit. Petrologic analysis of eruptive products indicates a magma storage region beneath the caldera, having a vertical extent of 7–8 km with the upper boundary at about sea level. This zone coincides with the source region of deeper VT earthquakes, indicating that a primary magma body exists in this region. LP swarms occurred in a cyclic pattern synchronous with ground deformation during magma extrusions. The correlation between seismicity and ground deformation suggests that both respond to pressure changes caused by the cyclic eruptive behavior of lava domes.