Water-quality trends in White Rock Creek Basin from 1912-1994 identified using sediment cores from White Rock Lake reservoir, Dallas, Texas

Historical trends in selected water-quality variables from 1912 to 1994 in White Rock Creek Basin were identified by dated sediment cores from White Rock Lake. White Rock Lake is a 4.4-km² reservoir filled in 1912 and located on the north side of Dallas, Texas, with a drainage area of 259 km². Agriculture dominated land use in White Rock Creek Basin before about 1950. By 1990, 72% of the basin was urban. Sediment cores were dated using cesium-137 and core lithology. Major element concentrations changed, and sedimentation rates and percentage of clay-sized particles in sediments decreased beginning in about 1952 in response to the change in land use. Lead concentrations, normalized with respect to aluminum, were six times larger in sediment deposited in about 1978 than in pre-1952 sediment. Following the introduction of unleaded gasoline in the 1970s, normalized lead concentrations in sediment declined and stabilized at about two and one-half times the pre-1952 level. Normalized zinc and arsenic concentrations increased 66 and 76%, respectively, from before 1952 to 1994. No organochlorine compounds were detected in sediments deposited prior to about 1940. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and DDE (a metabolite of DDT) increased rapidly beginning in the 1940s and peaked in the 1960s at 21 and 20 µg kg^-1, respectively, which is coincident with their peak use in the United States. Concentrations of both declined about an order of magnitude from the 1960s to the 1990s to 3.0 and 2.0 µg kg^-1, respectively. Chlordane and dieldrin concentrations increased during the 1970s and 1980s. The largest chlordane concentration was 8.0 µg kg^-1 and occurred in a sediment sample deposited in about 1990. The largest dieldrin concentration was 0.7 µg kg^-1 and occurred in the most recent sample deposited in the early 1990s. Agricultural use of chlordane and dieldrin was restricted in the 1970s; however, both were used as termiticides, and urban use of chlordane continued at least until 1990. Recent use of dieldrin and aldrin, which degrades to dieldrin, has not been reported; however, increasing trends in dieldrin since the 1970s suggest recent urban use could have occurred.     

A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Remote sensing techniques for landslide studies and hazard zonation in Europe

An inventory is presented of researches concerning the use of remote sensing for landslide studies and hazard zonation as mainly carried out in the countries belonging to the European Community. An overview is given of the applicability of remote sensing in the following phases of landslide studies:

1. (1) Detection and classification of landslides. Special emphasis is given to the types of imagery required at different scales of analysis.

2. (2) Monitoring the activity of existing landslides using G.P.S., photogrammetrical techniques and radar interferometry.

3. (3) Analysis and prediction in space and time of slope failures. The different factors required in a landslide hazard study are evaluated, and the optimum remote sensing imagery for obtaining each of these factors is indicated.

Examples are given of research work carried out in these three phases from EC countries. Finally an evaluation is given of the aspects of uncertainty associated with the use of remote sensing data, and conclusions are given as to the incorporation of remote sensing techniques within the overall framework of techniques.     

Palaeoecology and Archaeology of the Kärlich–Seeufer Open-Air Site (Middle Pleistocene) in the Central Rhineland, Germany

The Kärlich–Seeufer archaeological site in Germany's central Rhineland was excavated between 1980 and 1992. The site provides evidence for hominid activity during a Middle Pleistocene interglaciation known up to now only from the Kärlich clay pit and therefore defined as the Kärlich Interglaciation, which is considered to be post-Cromer IV and pre-Holstein (sensu stricto) in age. The site is characterized by Acheulean artifacts, a fauna dominated byElephas (Palaeoloxodon) antiquus,and a unique and outstanding preservation of wooden and other palaeobotanical remains. Assuming all finds are associated, the site previously was interpreted as an elephant hunting camp with a wooden structure, together with wood and bone implements preservedin situ.Recent analysis of the same features has shown that the site can also be interpreted as a reworked archaeological sample. Hominid occupation occurred in the vicinity of a small lake with prevailing meso-oligotrophic conditions. Expanding boreal forests and fen vegetation characterized the landscape.     

Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.     

Numerical Studies with a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model Based on Changes in the Roughness Length for Momentum and Heat Over Antarctica

A regional atmospheric climate model is used toexamine the effect of changes in the roughnesslengths of momentum (_z0m) and heat (_z0h)on the structure of the lower atmosphere and on thesurface energy fluxes over Antarctica. Fourexperiments were carried out in which _z0mand/or _z0h were altered with respect to acontrol experiment. The changes consisted of (1) alowering of _z0m from a field aggregated froma vegetation map with an orographic correction basedon the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts _z0m field, to a constant value of10^-3 m; and (2) a lowering of _z0h from a valueequal to _z0m to a constant value of 10^-3 mor a value dependent on the wind speed via a surfacerenewal model. A reduction of _z0m results in theexpected increase in near-surface wind speed. It alsoresults in an increase in the depth of the layer in whichsouth-easterly near-surface winds prevail, and in adecrease in the strength of the large-scale flow overthe continent, in particular in summer. In theescarpment region a decrease of _z0m is foundto result in too high wind speeds. Surface temperatureson average decrease while atmospheric temperaturesincrease, resulting in an increase of near-surfacestatic stability. Changes in roughness lengths donot significantly change the temperature profiles.The surface fluxes, on average found reduced, aremodelled best by using the _z0h based on thesurface renewal method.