Merging eruption datasets: building an integrated Holocene eruptive record for Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

Acquiring detailed eruption frequency datasets for a volcano system is essential for realistic eruption forecasts. However, accurate datasets are inherently difficult to compile, even if one or more well-dated eruption records are available. A single record typically under-represents the eruption frequency, while combining two or more records may result in an overrepresentation. Although glass compositions have proven to be successful in tephrochronological studies of dominantly rhyolitic tephras; microlitic growth and thin glass shards inhibit their application to andesitic tephras. A method consisting of a combination of two techniques for correlating syn-eruptive deposits is demonstrated on data from the typical andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Firstly, tentative matches are identified using the radiocarbon age and associated error of each event. Secondly, the compositions of titanomagnetite micro-phenocrysts are used as an independent check, and shown to be a useful correlation tool where age data is available. Using two lake-core records containing tephra layers in an overlapping time-frame, the radiocarbon age-correlation procedure suggested 31 tephra matches. Geochemistry data were available for 15 of these pairs. In three of these cases, the titanomagnetite compositions did not match. Hence, these “paired” tephras were from compositionally distinct magmas and therefore likely represent separate events. An additional three matches were reassigned within the temporal uncertainty limits of the dating procedure, based on better geochemical pairing. The final combined dataset suggests that there have been at least 138 separate ash fall-producing eruptions between 96 and 10 150 years B.P. from Taranaki. Using the combined dataset the mixture of Weibulls renewal model forecasts a probability of 0.52 for an eruption occurring in the next 50 years at this volcano. The present annual eruption probability is estimated at 1.6%. This likelihood is almost double that obtained when relying on a single stratigraphic record.     

Clam community composition and prey shell size impacts moon snail (Gastropod: Naticidae) drilling frequencies in South Carolina,USA

Moon snail predation on clams is a common model system of predator–prey interactions. In this system, the predator bores through the shell of its prey, leaving a distinct and identifiable hole. Some paleoecological and behavioral research on moon snails suggests a trend in predation preference directed toward clams with small shells. Rarely, however, have studies tested relative drilling frequencies across species and size ranges in natural assemblages of clam communities. We examined the clam community composition at two beaches in South Carolina, USA, and we then tested moon snail predator preferences for (a) clam prey species and (b) whether their selection is related to prey shell size. We collected a total of 1,879 clam shells, identified each shell to species and recorded their anteroposterior length. The species composition of clams differed significantly between the two beaches; Anadara ovalis was dominant at both sites, but three of ten total species were only collected at one beach. Folly Beach had nearly a 60% higher the overall drilling frequency (34.6%) versus Edisto Beach (21.8%), and this may be linked to the differences in clam community compositions at the sites. For A. ovalis and Mulinia lateralis, shells with larger lengths have lower probabilities of being bored by a moon snail. Anadara brasiliana, which generally is a thinner‐shelled clam species, had the highest total drilling frequency (77.2%), and Noetia ponderosa, a thicker‐shelled clam, had a considerably lower drilling frequency (12.0%). We conclude that both community level factors (species composition) and population characteristics (shell size distributions) may influence the local drilling frequency by moon snails.     

Hydrogen and carbon isotopic ratios of the cellulose nitrate and saponifiable lipid fractions prepared from annual growth rings of a California redwood

The $\text{D}\text{H}$ and ${}^{13}\text{C}{}^{12}$C ratios of the cellulose nitrate and saponifiable lipid fractions prepared from eleven annual growth rings of a California redwood were determined. The $\text{D}\text{H}$ ratios of the two fractions are related to one another for the annual rings in the sapwood portion of the tree, but not for those in the heartwood or in the wood undergoing the transition from sapwood to heartwood. No relationship was observed between the ${}^{13}\text{C}{}^{12}$ ratios of the two fractions. These results suggest that analysis of the hydrogen isotopic composition of the saponifiable lipid fractions in plants will provide information useful for climatic reconstruction provided the initial isotopic record has not been changed by subsequent physiological or diagenetic processes.     

Effect of leaf litter degradation and seasonality on D/H isotope ratios of n-alkane biomarkers

During the last decade, compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis of plant leaf-wax and sedimentary n-alkyl lipids has become a promising tool for paleohydrological reconstructions. However, with the exception of several previous studies, there is a lack of knowledge regarding possible effects of early diagenesis on the δD values of n-alkanes. We therefore investigated the n-alkane patterns and δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from three different C3 higher plant species (Acer pseudoplatanus L., Fagus sylvatica L. and Sorbus aucuparia L.) that have been degraded in a field leaf litterbag experiment for 27 months.We found that after an initial increase of long-chain n-alkane masses (up to ∼50%), decomposition took place with mean turnover times of 11.7 months. Intermittently, the masses of mid-chain n-alkanes increased significantly during periods of highest total mass losses. Furthermore, initially high odd-over-even predominances (OEP) declined and long-chain n-alkane ratios like n-C₃₁/C₂₇ and n-C₃₁/C₂₉ started to converge to the value of 1. While bulk leaf litter became systematically D-enriched especially during summer seasons (by ∼8‰ on average over 27 months), the δD values of long-chain n-alkanes reveal no systematic overall shifts, but seasonal variations of up to 25‰ (Fagus, n-C₂₇, average ∼13‰).Although a partly contribution by leaf-wax n-alkanes by throughfall cannot be excluded, these findings suggest that a microbial n-alkane pool sensitive to seasonal variations of soil water δD rapidly builds up. We propose a conceptual model based on an isotope mass balance calculation that accounts for the decomposition of plant-derived n-alkanes and the build-up of microbial n-alkanes. Model results are in good agreement with measured n-alkane δD results. Since microbial ‘contamination’ is not necessarily discernible from n-alkane concentration patterns alone, care may have to be taken not to over-interpret δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Furthermore, since leaf-water is generally D-enriched compared to soil and lake waters, soil and water microbial n-alkane pools may help explain why soil and sediment n-alkanes are D-depleted compared to leaves.     

Assimilation of thermal emission spectrometer atmospheric data during the Mars Global Surveyor aerobraking period

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft has produced an extensive atmospheric data set, beginning during aerobraking and continuing throughout the extended scientific mapping phase. Temperature profiles for the atmosphere below about 40 km, surface temperatures and total dust and water ice opacities, can be retrieved from infrared spectra in nadir viewing mode. This paper describes assimilation of nadir retrievals from the spacecraft aerobraking period, L_S=190°–260°, northern hemisphere autumn to winter, into a Mars general circulation model. The assimilation scheme is able to combine information from temperature and dust optical depth retrievals, making use of a model forecast containing information from the assimilation of earlier observations, to obtain a global, time-dependent analysis. Given sufficient temperature retrievals, the assimilation procedure indicates errors in the a priori dust distribution assumptions even when lacking dust observations; in this case there are relatively cold regions above the poles compared to a model which assumes a horizontally-uniform dust distribution. One major reason for using assimilation techniques is in order to investigate the transient wave behavior on Mars. Whilst the data from the 2-h spacecraft mapping orbit phase is much more suitable for assimilation, even the longer (45–24 h) period aerobraking orbit data contain useful information about the three-dimensional synoptic-scale martian circulation which the assimilation procedure can reconstruct in a consistent way. Assimilations from the period of the Noachis regional dust storm demonstrate that the combined assimilation of temperature and dust retrievals has a beneficial impact on the atmospheric analysis.     

Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations.     

Characterisation of organic matter and microbial communities in contrasting arsenic-rich Holocene and arsenic-poor Pleistocene aquifers,Red River Delta,Vietnam

High concentrations of geogenic As in the groundwaters of south and SE Asia, which are used as drinking waters, are causing severe health impacts to the exposed human populations. It is widely accepted that As mobilisation from sediments into these shallow reducing groundwaters requires active metal-reducing microbes and electron donors such as organic matter (OM). Although OM in such Holocene aquifers has been characterised, there is a dearth of data on Pleistocene aquifers from the same areas. Reported here are preliminary studies of OM and microbial communities present in two aquifers, one of Pleistocene and one of Holocene age, with contrasting concentrations of As (viz. Pleistocene: low As <10 μg/L; Holocene: high As up to 600 μg/L) from Van Phuc village in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Results revealed OM inputs from multiple sources, including potential contributions from naturally occurring petroleum seeping into the shallow aquifer sediments from deeper thermally mature source rocks. Although concentrations vary, no noticeable systematic differences in biomarker distribution patterns within the OM were observed between the two sites. Microbial analyses did not show a presence of microbial communities previously associated with As mobilisation. All clone libraries were dominated by α-, β-, and γ-Proteobacteria not known to be able to reduce Fe(III) or sorbed As(V). Furthermore, representatives of the Fe(III)-reducing genus Geobacter could only be detected at very low abundance by PCR, using highly selective 16S rRNA gene primers, supporting the hypothesis that metal reduction is not a dominant in situ process in these sediments. No correlation between As concentration in groundwater and OM composition nor microbial community in the host sediments was found. This suggests that either (i) As is not being significantly mobilised in situ in these sediments, instead As appears to be mobilised elsewhere and transported by groundwater flow to the sites or (ii) sorption/desorption processes, as implicated by geochemical data from the cores, play a critical role in controlling As concentrations at these sites.     

Systematic differences between VTEC obtained by different space-geodetic techniques during CONT08

The ionosphere is a dispersive medium for microwaves, and most space-geodetic techniques using two or more signal frequencies can be applied to extract information on ionospheric parameters, including terrestrial as well as satellite-based GNSS, DORIS, altimetry, and VLBI. Because of their different sensitivity regarding ionization, their different spatial and temporal data distribution, and their different signal paths, a joint analysis of all observation types seems reasonable and promises the best results for ionosphere modeling. However, it has turned out that there exist offsets between ionospheric observations of the diverse techniques mainly caused by calibration uncertainties or model errors. Direct comparisons of the information from different data types are difficult because of the inhomogeneous measurement epochs and locations. In the approach presented here, all measurements are combined into one ionosphere model of vertical total electron content (VTEC). A variance component estimation is applied to take into account the different accuracy levels of the observations. In order to consider systematic offsets, a constant bias term is allowed for each observation group. The investigations have been performed for the time interval of the CONT08 campaign (2 weeks in August 2008) in a region around the Hawaiian Islands. Almost all analyzed observation techniques show good data sensitivity and are suitable for VTEC modeling in case the systematic offsets which can reach up to 5 TECU are taken into account. Only the Envisat DORIS data cannot provide reliable results.