山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。     

CAPPS在太原市本地化过程中的改进和应用

该文针对CAPPS在太原市运行的误差问题，在分析其主要原因的基础上，变换地形背景场，依据不同季节、不同天气形势，在模式中增加对综合误差系数和扬尘系数的调节功能，进行多种数值模拟试验。结果表明:在误差分析基础上确定的模拟试验方案，使主要污染物SO₂、NO_X和PM₁₀的预报值与监测值的相关系数分别提高到0.96、0.91和0.89，最终使CAPPS成为预报准确率稳定在90%以上的业务化数值模式系统。     

幂函数对建筑物沉降的回归分析

通过实例推导幂函数对建筑物沉降进行回归分析，并且得出较为精确的结果，同时也说明在选择回归函数的时候，还会受到很多条件影响。     

A microscale model for air pollutant dispersion simulation in urban areas: Presentation of the model and performance over a single building

A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model's performance, using CEDVAL(Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Dispersion Models) wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios;and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.     

海风雷暴的观测分析和数值模拟研究进展

沿海地区经济相对繁荣,城市化水平较高,对天气和气候的依赖性强,突发性强对流天气所造成的灾害也会更加严重;同时沿海地区的强对流天气又与海风环流密切相关,因此沿海地区海风雷暴的研究受到了日益广泛的关注,成为了气象学和大气科学中的重要研究对象。在过去的半个多世纪中,海风雷暴的观测和模拟研究取得了大量的研究成果。本文通过对这些研究工作进行回顾和总结,系统地分析了国内外的研究现状,重点讨论了海风雷暴的结构和特征、发展演变过程、触发机制及其预报预警。最后对海风雷暴未来的研究方向进行了探讨,提出了一些有待于研究或需深入研究的问题,以利于今后更好的开展有关海风雷暴的工作,加深对其发生发展规律的认识,提高预报预警水平。     

面向应用的航天遥感科学论证研究

为适应中国民用航天遥感从科学试验向业务服务模式转变,更好地探索、了解与解决应用需求与航天遥感系统对接等方面遇到的技术问题,促进航天遥感统筹协调可持续发展,中国适时于2004年成立了国家航天局航天遥感论证中心。10余年来,论证中心以航天遥感系统为研究对象,系统开展了面向应用的航天遥感科学论证概念、理论方法、技术工程与应用研究。本文是论证中心团队长期从事航天遥感科学论证研究与实践的系统总结,介绍了遥感论证初步认知、遥感论证关注问题、遥感论证理论体系与模型方法集、遥感论证能力建设及遥感论证实践等方面内容,给出了遥感论证定义并详细分析了研究范围和内容,提出了由知识维、进程维和逻辑维所组成的遥感论证作用域3维空间结构,指出社会发展加快和信息化水平提高,带动整个航天遥感数据信息链向更大规模、更短响应时间周期、更综合数据集成、更高数据质量、更加智能化方向发展,航天遥感系统将进入新的"智慧遥感"发展阶段。得益于十余年来中国民用航天快速发展,我们经历了风云三号新型载荷校飞、多角度多光谱偏振遥感器论证、环境星应用工程论证等实践,取得了多方面理论方法的突破,并应用到2030民用航天发展规划、高分辨率对地观测系统、国家自然灾害空间信息基础设施、国家民用空间基础设施中长期发展、2030中国综合地球观测系统规划等论证当中。经过不断实践,快速迭代,形成了遥感论证理论体系及相应的十大模型方法,包括遥感信息流模型、遥感信息特征模型、遥感信息应用模型、遥感信息量分析模型、遥感数据工程模型、航天遥感系统结构模型、航天遥感系统状态描述模型、航天遥感系统质量模型、航天遥感系统发展动力模型及能力体系模型。这些模型方法全面反映了航天遥感系统特征、结构、状态、发展动力、条件等,可广泛用于对航天遥感系统进行顶层设计、规划、考察、分析、评价、预测,并开展实践探索。     

Rock Mass Deformation Characteristics in High-Steep Slopes Influenced by Open-Pit to Underground Mining

In Daye Iron Mine, the open-pit mining has ended and the underground mining started in 2003. The present pit slopes are as high as 430 m and the slope angle is up to 43°. During the process of open-pit to underground mining, the high-steep pit slopes would be affected by both open-pit mining and underground mining, and its deformation characteristics would become more complex. So in this paper, the trinity method of numerical simulation, model experiment and field test was adopted to analyze the displacement and stress fields systematically. The results show that: (1) Prominent rebound deformation occurs near the slope foot, which is induced by the unloading in open-pit mining. When it is backfilled to 0 m level, the rebound deformation decreases, which indicate that backfilling mass can restrict the deformation and improve the slope stability; (2) Subsidence dominates the slope deformation in open-pit to underground mining and it increases with an increasing elevation of monitoring point; the maximum horizontal displacement occurs in the lower part of the slopes, because the backfilled part is squeezed by both the north slope and the south slope, and it has a lower elastic modulus than the previous orebody; (3) The stress and its variability near the slope foot are much larger than other places, indicating that the slope foot is most affected by stress redistribution and stress concentration may occur here; the stress at other stress monitoring points changes little, indicating that the influence of open-pit to underground mining is local; (4) The effect of underground mining on the deformation of the faults is not prominent; (5) Mining operations in near-ground part affect more on the variation of deformation and stress of pit slopes than that in deeper part.     

Geochemical Characteristics and Tectonic Significance of Early Carboniferous Volcanic Rocks of Kalamaili,Xinjiang

Shanlianglishi Formation strata volcanic rocks are widely distributed in western fault zone of Kalamaili. Studies show that the rocks are basalt, andesite and basaltic andesite, calc-alkaline series with SiO₂ content of samples ranging from 49.43% to 59.08%, TiO₂ (1.18%~2.49%), P₂O₅ (0.21%~0.92%) and MgO (3.81%~6.28%). Samples have relatively high HFSE content (Ti, Zr, Y) and also high La/Nb (2.98~1.96), Zr/Y (9.36~4.01) ratio. The primitive mantle normalized trace element spider shows samples enriched LILE (Rb, Ba, K, U) and Pb, but relatively depleted Nb, Ta and Ti. Rare earth element distribution of REE shows slightly enriched LREE, (La/Yb)_N=1.93~9.59, and that Eu is weakly negative anomaly (δEu=0.87~0.95). Combined with geochemical characteristics of WPB and VAB. Shanlianglishi Formation strata formed in the stretched after collision environmen. After partial melting of the enriched mantle that was previously metasomatized by the subduction fluid and with participation of the subduction sediment, magma experienced a certain degree of fractional crystallization and contamination by earth crust, and then erupted to form the Shanlianglishi Formation strata volcanic rocks. In eraly Late-Carboniferous, extensional movement was the most intense volcanic activity, which reached its peak in this area.