Distributed snow process modelling: An image processing approach

An approach to spatially distribute a snow process model by segmenting images of land cover, terrain and snow properties is reported. A small 1.7 ha study area with an existing database was selected for this preliminary evaluation. The methodology was carried out over a relatively flat valley bottom at Camp Grayling, Michigan. Meteorological measurements on two sides of the area showed only small differences, so uniform meteorological variables were assumed over the site. Initial snow cover conditions were reconstructed and were distributed over the area using snow maps and sparse snow pit measurements. One metre resolution terrain, soil, vegetation and snow type maps were individually processed into class maps. These layers were then combined to produce a segmented class map, where the attributes from the data layers were known for each class. A one-dimensional model of snow processes was run for each class, then the results were mapped back into images. Shallow snow conditions provided high sensitivity of ablation patterns to meteorological conditions over a 72 h period. The model performance was assessed by comparing predicted and observed ablation patterns. The error in total snow-covered area was less than 9%. However, the location errors were greater (predicted snow where no snow was observed and observed snow where no snow was predicted). Extensive error analysis was not justified because of the lack of multiple point measurements of snow properties.     

A two-dimensional kinematic model for predicting muckpile shape in bench blasting

Summary Most existing models of blasting are stress-based and involve many fundamental parameters difficult or impossible to measure in practice. Even a single prediction with such models takes large quantities of computer time, so that calibration becomes a major impediment to their practical use.The model in this paper is based on a simple kinematic approach to modelling muckpile formation. This has the advantage of relative simplicity, while still reflecting the essence of the blasting displacement process. Because of the simple implementation, the model can be calibrated against field data in a straightforward manner and then used for predictions at the same site. The inputs to the model are simply the blast design parameters. The output of the model is a muckpile cross-section, within which contours of diggability or distribution of materials can also be calculated. Case studies have shown that, provided the model is calibrated to the site condition, it will give accurate predictions for altered blast designs.     

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF?≥?50,000 ac?~?20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p?≤?0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Changes in seasonality and frequency of VLWFs d7epend on changes in the future climate space. For example, flammability-limited areas such as the Pacific Northwest show that (with high model agreement) the frequency of weeks with VLWFs in a given year is 2–2.7 more likely. However, frequency of weeks with at least one VLWF in fuel-limited systems like the Western Great Basin is 1.3 times more likely (with low model agreement). Thus, areas where fire is directly associated with hot and dry climate, as opposed to experiencing lagged effects from previous years, experience more change in the likelihood of VLWF in future projections. The results provide a quantitative foundation for management to mitigate the effects of VLWFs.     

Plate tectonics in ω space

The relative angular velocity vectors of the plates covering the earth form a three-dimensional closed polyhedron, for which we propose the name geohedron. All forms of plate evolution produce simple changes in the geohedron. Corresponding bodies exist for relative angular accelerations and an attempt is made to determine the value of the relative accelerations of the plates forming a single triple junction when they are governed by kinematic effects alone, but the resulting values do not agree with the available observations.     

Wave and stability properties of black holes

In this paper we transform the wave equation governing gravitational perturbations of a Schwarzschild black hole from its standard Schrödinger or Regge-Wheeler form to a Klein-Gordon type wave equation. This latter form reveals immediately that incoming waves with frequencies () _cml , a critical frequency, are completely reflected (transmitted). This process is entirely due to the radial variation of the cut-off frequency inherent in the dispersive nature of the wave propagation properties of gravitational perturbations of the Schwarzschild metric. Moreover, those high-frequency waves ( _cml) which penetrate through the region near the Schwarzschild radiusr _sare, on crossing this event horizon, attenuated by a factor exp (–r _s/c), thereby dumping most of their energy and momentum into the black hole. It is shown that in the vicinity ofr _sthe metric is locally unstable. This feature and the wave absorption process indicate that the neighbourhood aroundr _sis dynamically active, and, as well as acting like a Hawking-type particle creator, will behave as a wave emitter in order to relax the stresses on the metric.     

Finite deformation during fluid flow

Summary. Typical upper mantle circulations obtained by solving Stokes' equation produce finite deformations which differ in important ways from those produced by pure or simple shear. Finite strain, defined by the ratio of the long to the short axis of the deformation ellipse, in most cases shows a steady increase with superimposed oscillations. Similarity solutions for the flow near plate boundaries demonstrate that the observed seismic anisotropy in the oceanic lithosphere can be produced by the finite deformation beneath the ridge axes. The same mechanism should give rise to strong anisotropy in the mantle above sinking slabs. Such anisotropy has not yet been detected, perhaps because the observed high velocities have been attributed to thermal effects. Convection in the mantle remote from plate boundaries produces complicated deformation which varies rapidly with position and will therefore be difficult to map seismically. The fabrics of nodules in lavas and kimberlites suggest that large strains can occur in the mantle under stresses which are too small to produce dislocation movement. The large and complicated finite deformation produced by the convective circulation in the mantle also affects closed geochemical systems, and leads to thorough mixing of any convecting region.