两种初始场MM5模式预报效果对比评估

为了解本地MM5模式的预报性能,根据其预报结果,检验了基于NCEP和T213两种初始场MM5模式在河北以及京津地区2007年8月至2008年1月的降水、日极值温度和相对湿度的预报效果。结果表明,MM5晴雨（雪）预报的准确率较高,具有较好的参考价值,而对于降水的分级预报,随着预报时效的延长和降水强度的增加,其可用性逐渐降低,但整体来看基于NCEP初始场的预报均比T213初始场预报效果明显;在日极值温度预报中,最低温度效果优于最高温度,T213初始场的预报对日最高温度预报的准确率较高,NCEP初始场的预报则在日最低温度预报中略胜一筹;对08：00相对湿度的预报,两者的预报效果基本相同,绝对误差都在15％左右。     

清洁发展机制（CDM）造林再造林项目碳汇成本研究——以CDM广西珠江流域治理再造林项目为例

以清洁发展机制（CDM）广西珠江流域治理再造林项目为例,对项目及其5种造林模式临时核证减排量（temporary certified emission reduction,缩写为tCER）和长期核证减排量（long-term certified emission reduction,缩写为lCER）成本的动态变化进行了初步研究。结果表明：从项目期初到期末,整个项目及5种造林模式人工林的tCER成本均逐渐降低,其中项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33 ￥/t CO₂降至最后承诺期末的13.34 ￥/t CO₂;lCER成本先降低后升高,在第一承诺期末均降至最小值,项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33 ￥/t CO₂增加至最后承诺期末的105.27 ￥/t CO₂;各造林模式tCER和lCER成本均以枫香+杉木、枫香+马尾松较高,马尾松+荷木、马尾松+栎类较低,桉树最低;贴现率对项目tCER和lCER、桉树tCER、枫香+杉木lCER成本影响均较大,而对马尾松+栎类tCER和lCER成本影响均较小;对桉树一个轮伐期内的tCER成本进行了敏感性分析,单位面积碳贮量的变化对其影响较大;考虑木材收益时,项目期末tCER净现值为13.11 ￥/t CO₂,从中反映了该CDM项目实施是可行的。     

北方草地生态气象综合监测预测技术及其应

近几十年来中国90%以上的草地出现退化现象,特别是内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆、青海、西藏等地区,草地退化严重,国家急需掌握气象条件对草地植被生长的影响,了解草地生产力、牲畜承载力以及生态质量状况.为此,在实时获取北方草地气温、降水量、日照时数等气象要素和气象卫星植被指数以及产草量观测资料的基础上,应用模糊数学、集合运算、统计分析等多种方法和"3S"手段,建立了北方草地植被生长气象条件优劣评价、产草量和载畜量预测、草地生态质量监测等模型.2005年以来,利用这些模型逐年评价了气象条件对草地植被生长的优劣影响、预测产草量和载畜量、监测草地生态质量优劣,获得了良好的服务效益.北方草地2007年生态气象监测预测结果表明:所建模型综合了多种资料和技术优势,结果符合实际;形成的综合监测预测技术可为国家保护和恢复草地生态环境提供科学依据.     

MODIS地表温度产品与实测资料对比分析

陆面温度是研究地表和大气之间物质交换和能量交换的重要参数。本文通过NASAMODIS地表温度产品与常规资料的分析,发现利用MODIS资料反演的地表温度在山西省分布情况与实测资料基本一致,但应用MODIS资料反演的地表温度要小于实测数据。     

On bridges B(pL, qS) around triangular libration points

When μ is smaller than Routh’s critical value μ ₁ = 0.03852 . . . , two planar Lyapunov families around triangular libration points exist, with the names of long and short period families. There are periodic families which we call bridges connecting these two Lyapunov families. With μ increasing from 0 to 1, how these bridges evolve was studied. The interval (0,1) was divided into six subintervals (0, μ ₅), (μ ₅, μ ₄), (μ ₄, μ ₃), (μ ₃, μ ₂), (μ ₂, μ ₁), (μ ₁, 1), and in each subinterval the families B(pL, qS) were studied, along with the families B(qS, qS′). Especially in the interval (μ ₂, μ ₁), the conclusion that the bridges B(qS, qS′) do not exist was obtained. Connections between the short period family and the bridges B(kS, (k + 1)S) were also studied. With these studies, the structure of the web of periodic families around triangular libration points was enriched.     

Common Pb of UHP metamorphic rocks from the CCSD project (100–5000 m) suggesting decoupling between the slices within subducting continental crust and multiple thin slab exhumation

In order to understand the vertical structure of the Dabie–Sulu ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic (UHPM) belt, common Pb isotopic compositions of omphacites in eclogites and feldspars in gneisses from the Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling (CCSD) project (100–5000 m) have been investigated in this study. Samples from 0 to 800 m (unit 1) in the drilling core have moderately high radiogenic Pb isotopes with small variations of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (16.82–17.38), ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (15.37–15.49), and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (37.21–37.72), indicating either high µ (²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb) or high initial Pb isotope ratios of their protoliths. In contrast, the samples from 1600 to 2040 m (unit 3) and most of samples from 3200 to 5000 m (unit 5) have moderately or very unradiogenic Pb (unit 3: ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 16.05 to 16.46, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 15.22 to 15.29, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 36.68 to 37.48; unit 5: ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 15.52 to 15.69, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 15.15 to 15.27, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 36.48 to 37.20), indicating either low µ or low initial Pb isotope ratios of their protoliths. Pb isotopes of samples from 800 to 1600 m (unit 2) and from 2040 to 3200 m (unit 4) in the drilling core with abundant ductile shear zones are intermediate between those of units 1 and 3 or 5 and display larger variations. Pb isotopes combined with the published oxygen isotope data of the CCSD samples reveal the original positions of the five units before the Triassic continental subduction. Units 1, 3, and 5 as three UHPM rock slabs could be derived from the subducted upper continental crust, upper–middle continental crust and lower–middle continental crust, respectively. The ductile shearing zones in units 2 and 4 could be the interfaces where the detachment and decoupling took place between the upper, upper–middle and lower–middle continental crusts. The detachment between the upper slab and subducting continental lithosphere probably occurred during continental subduction, and the upper slab (unit 1) was uplifted to a shallow depth along the detachment surface by thrusting. Units 3 and 5 may be detached later from the subducted middle and lower crust and uplifted to a shallow level underneath unit 1. The low δ¹⁸O values (? 4.0 to ? 7.4‰) [Xiao, Y.-L., Zhang, Z.-M., Hoefs, J., Kerkhof, A., 2006. Ultrahigh-pressure Metamorphic Rocks from the Chinese Continental Drilling Project-II Oxygen Isotope and Fluid Inclusion Distributions through Vertical Sections. Contribution Mineral Petrology 152, 443–458.; Zhang, Z.-M., Xiao, Y.-L., Zhao, X.-D., Shi, C., 2006. Fluid-rock interaction during the continental deep subduction: oxygen isotopic profile of the main hole of the CCSD project. Acta Petrologica Sinica 22 (7), 1941–1951.] in units 2 and 4 suggest that the detachment interfaces could be developed along an ancient fault zones which were the channels of meteoric water activity during the Neoproterozoic.     

鄂东南铜绿山矿田矽卡岩型铜铁金矿床的辉钼矿Re-Os同位素年龄及其地质意义

鄂东南地区(斑岩-)矽卡岩型铜铁金多金属矿床是长江中下游地区金属成矿带的重要组成部分,铜绿山矿田以成矿类型齐全和矿体规模较大为特点,是鄂东南矿集区最重要的矿田.但目前对不同成矿元素的矽卡岩型铜铁金矿床的成矿时代、成岩成矿时差和构造背景的研究相对较少.本文利用Re-Os同位素定年方法对铜绿山矿田两个典型的大型铜绿山矽卡岩铜(铁金)矿床和大型鸡冠嘴矽卡岩(铜)金矿床进行了成矿时代的研究,获得了辉钼矿的Re-Os同位素年龄范围分别为(1368±19)～(1381±18) Ma和(1371±19)～(1388±19) Ma,等时线年龄分别为(1371±19) Ma和(1382±22) Ma,表明铜绿山矿田不同类型的矿床几乎同时形成;与矿田花岗闪长岩锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年龄[(1403±18) Ma]在误差范围内基本一致,存在较短的成岩成矿时差,该成矿时代与鄂东南地区其他矿田的(斑岩-)矽卡岩型铜钼矿床和矽卡岩型铁矿床,以及长江中下游地区铜陵、安庆、九瑞矿集区(斑岩-)矽卡岩铜多金属矿床的形成时代基本一致.铜绿山矿田矽卡岩铜铁金矿床可能是在太平洋板块俯冲的撕裂或开天窗时,由于玄武质岩浆底侵和岩石圈减薄导致中国东部大规模侵入岩和成矿作用产物的形成.     

黔西南白层超基性岩墙锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年龄和Hf同位素组成研究

文章对黔西南白层地区出露的燕山期超基性岩墙进行了单颗粒锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年龄和Hf同位素组成研究,获得A、B两组不同的锆石年龄.A组锆石呈不规则粒状,具不完整的宽大条带,12颗锆石的 SHRIMP U-Pb年龄加权平均值为(84±1)Ma,代表了超基性岩墙的侵位年龄;锆石Hf原位分析表明,176Hf/177Hf从0.282561到0282719,εHf(84 Ma)平均为-3.61,表明岩浆源区主要以富集地幔为主,并受到部分地壳物质的混染.B组锆石晶形完整,具典型的中酸性岩浆型振荡环带,3颗锆石的SHRIMP U-Pb模式年龄为409～450 Ma.176Hf/177Hf从0282379到0282440,εHf(t)平均为-3.77,均低于A组锆石,属于捕获锆石.据此认为84 Ma左右由于华南岩石圈伸展,软流圈地幔上涌,导致岩石圈富集地幔部分熔融,熔体上升过程中与409～450 Ma左右形成的少量地壳岩石发生混染,随后快速侵位冷凝而形成基性-超基性岩墙.白层地区84 Ma的超基性岩浆活动是整个华南西部燕山晚期(80～90 Ma)岩浆活动的一部分.右江褶皱带周缘的燕山晚期岩浆活动主要与大规模的Sn、W、Ag、Cu、Pb、Zn等矿床有关,但右江褶皱带内部的燕山晚期岩浆活动是否与以卡林型金矿为代表的低温热液矿床有成因上的联系,尚需更多矿床年代学资料的证实.