A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and to compare the results of multivariate (logical regression) and bivariate (landslide susceptibility) methods in Geographical Information System (GIS) based landslide susceptibility assessment procedures. In order to achieve this goal the Asarsuyu catchment in NW Turkey was selected as a test zone because of its well-known landslide occurrences interfering with the E-5 highway mountain pass.Two methods were applied to the test zone and two separate susceptibility maps were produced. Following this a two-fold comparison scheme was implemented. Both methods were compared by the Seed Cell Area Indexes (SCAI) and by the spatial locations of the resultant susceptibility pixels.It was found that both of the methods converge in 80% of the area; however, the weighting algorithm in the bivariate technique (landslide susceptibility method) had some severe deficiencies, as the resultant hazard classes in overweighed areas did not converge with the factual landslide inventory map. The result of the multivariate technique (logical regression) was more sensitive to the different local features of the test zone and it resulted in more accurate and homogeneous susceptibility maps.     

Estimation of relative humidity based on artificial neural network approach in the Aegean Region of Turkey

The aim of this study is to estimate the monthly mean relative humidity (MRH) values in the Aegean Region of Turkey with the help of the topographical and meteorological parameters based on artificial neural network (ANN) approach. The monthly MRH values were calculated from the measurement in the meteorological observing stations established in Izmir, Mugla, Aydin, Denizli, Usak, Manisa, Kutahya and Afyonkarahisar provinces between 2000 and 2006. Latitude, longitude, altitude, precipitation and months of the year were used in the input layer of the ANN network, while the MRH was used in output layer of the network. The ANN model was developed using MATLAB software, and then actual values were compared with those obtained by ANN and multi-linear regression methods. It seemed that the obtained values were in the acceptable error limits. It is concluded that the determination of relative humidity values is possible at any target point of the region where the measurement cannot be performed.     

Modelling and Remote Sensing of Land Surface Temperature in Turkey

This study introduces artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the estimation of land surface temperature (LST) using meteorological and geographical data in Turkey (26?C45°E and 36?C42°N). A generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was used in the network. In order to train the neural network, meteorological and geographical data for the period from January 2002 to December 2002 for 10 stations (Adana, Afyon, Ankara, Eski?ehir, ?stanbul, ?zmir, Konya, Malatya, Rize, Sivas) spread over Turkey were used as training (six stations) and testing (four stations) data. Latitude, longitude, elevation and mean air temperature are used in the input layer of the network. Land surface temperature is the output. However, land surface temperature has been estimated as monthly mean by using NOAA-AVHRR satellite data in the thermal range over 10 stations in Turkey. The RMSE between the estimated and ground values for monthly mean with ANN temperature(LST_ANN) and Becker and Li temperature(LST_B-L) method values have been found as 0.077?K and 0.091?K (training stations), 0.045?K and 0.003?K (testing stations), respectively.     

Climate change in Turkey for the last half century

Climate change and its urban-induced bias in selected Turkish cities is studied with a quality controlled temperature and precipitation data of Turkish stations in the period of 1950–2004. These stations are classified into two groups according to their populations; S1, including rural and suburban stations and S2, including large urban stations. Moving average signals, 365-day, and their digital low pass filtered versions are produced to eliminate the short term fluctuations and examine the possible trends or anomalies in climate data. Furthermore, ‘relative difference’ signals are introduced and applied to temperature and precipitation series to observe the actual local changes in the climate data independent from large-scale effects. Mann–Kendall test statistics are calculated for maximum, minimum, mean temperature and precipitation series and plotted on maps to determine any spatial trend patterns. Signal analysis show a cool period extending from early 1960s till 1993, generally with the lowest temperature values on 1992–1993 owing to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. A last decade significant warming trend is observed in both of the series, S1 and S2, leading to 2000–2002 temperatures to be recorded as maximums in record history. The variability of urban precipitation series is generally larger than the rural ones, suggesting that urban stations can experience more frequent and severe droughts and floods. Though not significant, an increase in the urban precipitation compared to the rural one is also found. Spatial analysis resulted in significant warming in southern and southeastern parts of the country. Particularly, minimum temperature series show significant warming in almost all of the regions indicating the effect of urbanization. Significant decreases of precipitation amounts in the western parts of Turkey, such as Aegean and Trachea regions, are found. On the other hand, some Turkish northern stations show increases in precipitation of which some are significant.     

Measuring the accessibility of critical facilities in the presence of hurricane-related roadway closures and an approach for predicting future roadway disruptions

Natural Hazards - Roadway closures magnify the adverse effects of disasters on people since any type of such disruption increases the emergency response travel time (ERTT), which is of central...     

Groundwater circulation in the allochthonous limestone units between Lake Girdev and Kazanpınarı Spring, Antalya, southwestern Turkey

 The aim of the study is to investigate the interaction between waters of Lake Girdev and groundwater in the allochthonous limestone units exposed in the area between Lake Girdev and Kazanpınarı Spring, southwestern Turkey. The features analyzed include the flow direction and apparent groundwater velocity, their relationship with Lake Girdev, and the effect of lithological and structural features on the groundwater circulation. The results of a fluorescein tracer test indicate that groundwater flows east-northeast and the apparent flow velocity ranges from 26.2 to 35.6 m h^–1 between the injection site and various observation points. Tritium data suggest that the water of Lake Girdev and groundwater are probably similar in age, and oxygen-18 isotope data indicate that water derived from Lake Girdev is the main source of recharge to the aquifer. The aquifer is fed not only by Lake Girdev but also by rainfall percolating through allochthonous limestones; together, these provide the discharge of springs in Elmalı Polje. The permeability of the allochthonous limestone aquifer has been enhanced as a result of jointing and faulting. Received, June 1997 / Revised, June 1998, March 1999 / Accepted, July 1999     

Investigation of trace metals distribution in water,sediments and wetland plants of K(i)z(i)l(i)rmak Delta,Turkey

In this study,accumulation and distribution of Pb,Cu,Zn,Co,Ni,Mn and Fe in water,bottom sediments and four plant species (Myriophyllum verticillatum,Hydrocharis morsus-ranae,Nymphaea alba and Typha latifolia) were investigated in (C)ernek Lake of Kizihrmak Delta.The Kizdirmak Delta is one of the largest natural wetlands of Turkey and it is protected by the Ramsar convention since 1993.Selected physico-chemical parameters such as pH,conductivity and dissolved oxygen and also trace metal concentrations were monitored in water.All the parameters obtained were found higher than that of the national standards for the protected lakes and reserves.The accumulated amounts of various trace metals in bottom sediments and wetland plants were found in the following order of Fe ＞ Mn ＞ Zn ＞ Ni ＞ Co ＞ Cu ＞ Pb and Fe ＞ Mn ＞ Zn ＞ Ni ＞ Co respectively.The historical trace metal intake of Myriophyllum verticillatum,Hydrocharis morsus-ranae,Typha latifolia and Nymphaea alba were obtained higher than that of the toxic metal levels and these plants may be accepted as accumulators for the detected trace metals and also bioindicators in the historically polluted natural areas.     

Replaceable links with direct brace attachments for eccentrically braced frames

This paper reports findings of an experimental study conducted on replaceable links for steel eccentrically braced frames (EBFs). A replaceable link detail which is based on splicing the directly connected braces and the beam outside the link is proposed. This detail eliminates the need to use hydraulic jacks and flame cutting operations for replacement purposes. Performance of this proposed replaceable link was studied by conducting eight nearly full‐scale EBF tests under quasi‐static cyclic loading. The link length ratio, stiffening of the link, loading protocol, connection type, bolt pretension, gap size of splice connections, and demand‐to‐capacity ratios of members were considered as the prime variables. The specimens primarily showed two types of failure modes: link web fracture and fracture of the flange at the link‐to‐brace connection. No failures were observed at the splice connections indicating that the proposed replaceable link detail provides an excellent response. The inelastic rotation capacity provided by the replaceable links satisfied the requirements of the AISC Seismic Provisions for Structural Steel Buildings (AISC341–10). The overstrength factor of the links exceeded 2.0, which is larger than the value assumed for EBF links by design provisions. The high level of overstrength resulted in brace buckling in one of the specimens demonstrating the importance of overstrength factor used for EBF links. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated Radiolaria,benthic foraminifera and conodont biochronology of the pelagic Permian blocks/tectonic slices and geochemistry of associated volcanic rocks from the Mersin Mélange,southern Turkey: Implications for the Permian evolution of the northern Neotethys

Blocks and tectonic slices within the Mersin Mélange (southern Turkey), which are of Northern Neotethyan origin (Izmir–Ankara–Erzincan Ocean (IAE)), were studied in detail by using radiolarian, conodont, and foraminiferal assemblages on six different stratigraphic sections with well‐preserved Permian succesions. The basal part of the Permian sequence, composed of alternating chert and mudstone with basic volcanics, is assigned to the late Asselian (Early Permian) based on radiolarians. The next basaltic interval in the sequence is dated as Kungurian. The highly alkaline basic volcanics in the sequence are extremely enriched, similar to kimberlitic/lamprophyric magmas generated at continental intraplate settings. Trace element systematics suggest that these lavas were generated in a continental margin involving a metasomatized subcontinental lithospheric mantle source (SCLM). The middle part of the Permian sequences, dated by benthic foraminifera and conodont assemblages, includes detrital limestones with chert interlayers and neptunian dykes of middle Wordian to earliest Wuchiapingian age. Higher in the sequence, detrital limestones are overlain by alternating chert and mudstone with intermittent microbrecciated beds of early Wuchiapingian to middle Changhsingian (Late Permian) age based on the radiolarians. A large negative shift at the base of the Lopingian at the upper part of section is correlated to negative shifts at the Guadalupian/Lopingian boundary associated with the end‐Guadalupian mass extinction event. All these findings indicate that a continental rift system associated with a possible mantle plume existed during the late Early to Late Permian period. This event was responsible for the rupturing of the northern Gondwanan margin related to the opening of the IAE Ocean. When the deep basinal features of the Early Permian volcano‐sedimentary sequence are considered, the proto IAE oceanic crust formed possibly before the end of the Permian. This, in turn, suggests that the opening of the IAE Ocean dates back to as early as the Permian.     

Development of detachable replaceable links for eccentrically braced frames

Eccentrically braced frames (EBFs) can be repaired after a major earthquake by replacing the links. The link replacement is not a straightforward process and is influenced by the type of the link and the amount of residual frame deformations. The past decade has witnessed the development of different types of replaceable links such as end-plated links, web connected links, bolted flange and web spliced links, and collector beam and brace spliced links. All of the developed replaceable link details, except the web connected links, are not suitable for link replacement under residual frame drift. In this paper, a detachable replaceable link detail which is based on splicing the link at its mid-length is proposed. The detail is well suited for installation under residual frame drifts. In addition, the weight and size of the members to be transported and erected are reduced significantly, thereby facilitating the replacement procedure. Performance of this proposed replaceable link is studied by conducting six nearly full scale EBF tests under quasi-static cyclic loading. The link length ratio, type of end-plated mid-splice connection, and the amount of residual drift are considered as test variables. The test results revealed that the inelastic rotation capacity of the detachable replaceable links exceeds the requirements of the AISC Seismic Provisions for Structural Steel Buildings. No failures are observed in the end-plated mid-splice connections demonstrating the potential of the proposed details. The detachable replaceable links are investigated by numerical analysis as well to further validate their applicability and to develop design recommendations.