Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.     

Inorganic synthesis of Fe–Ca–Mg carbonates at low temperature

A set of free-drift experiments was undertaken to synthesize carbonates of mixed cation content (Fe, Ca, Mg) from solution at 25 and 70 °C to better understand the relationship between the mineralogy and composition of these phases and the solutions from which they precipitate. Metastable solid solutions formed at 25 °C which are not predicted from the extrapolation of higher temperature equilibrium assemblages; instead, solids formed that were intermediary in chemical composition to known magnesite–siderite and dolomite solid solutions. A calcite–siderite solid solution precipitated at 25 °C, with the percentage of CaCO₃ in the solid being proportional to the aqueous Ca/Fe ratio of the solution, while Mg was excluded from the crystal structure except at relatively high aqueous Mg/Ca and Mg/Fe ratios and a low Ca content. Alternatively, at 70 °C Mg was the predominant cation of the solid solutions. These results are compatible with the hypothesis that the relative dehydration energies of Fe, Ca and Mg play an important role in the formation of mixed cation carbonates in nature.     

Interaction between the interstellar medium and solar wind plasma

The interaction processes governing the penetration of the interstellar gas into the solar neighbourhood are re-examined — as well as photo-ionization and charge-exchange processes, proton elastic collisions and electron ionizations help reduce the nearby gas densities. The total destruction rate varies little during the solar cycle, by perhaps 10%. Particle heating, particularly via the elastic collisions, determines the gas characteristics in the gravitationally focussed tail—enhanced H-density is prevented, while the He-tail is effectively hotter than 10³ K.Termination of the solar wind is rediscussed in the light of both electron heating and the stronger gas/plasma interaction. The spiral interplanetary field is taken to break up and the subsonic plasma flow to be controlled by the pressure of slowly cooling electrons. The terminating collisionless shock is then, if it exists at all, very weak (M ₁<1.4), subcritical, and energetically unimportant. Cosmic rays are little affected by this sonic transition, but at least the electron component should be modulated by plasma turbulence throughout the ionizing flow.

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Spatial‐Scene Similarity Queries

Assessing spatial scenes for similarity is difficult from a cognitive and computational perspective. Solutions to spatial‐scene similarity assessments are sensible only if corresponding elements in the compared scenes are identified correctly. This matching process becomes increasingly complex and error‐prone for large spatial scenes as it is questionable how to choose one set of associations over another or how to account quantitatively for unmatched elements. We develop a comprehensive methodology for similarity queries over spatial scenes that incorporates cognitively motivated approaches about scene comparisons, together with explicit domain knowledge about spatial objects and their relations for the relaxation of spatial query constraints. Along with a sound graph‐theoretical methodology, this approach provides the foundation for plausible reasoning about spatial‐scene similarity queries.     

Sea-floor methane blow-out and global firestorm at the K–T boundary

 A previously unsuspected source of fuel for the global firestorm recorded by soot in the Cretaceous–Tertiary impact layer may have resided in methane gas associated with gas hydrate in the end-Cretaceous seafloor. End-Cretaceous impact-generated shock and megawaves would have had the potential to initiate worldwide oceanic methane gas blow-outs from these deposits. The methane would likely have ignited and incompletely combusted. This large burst of methane would have been followed by longer-term methane release as a part of a positive thermal feedback in the disturbed ocean-atmosphere system. Received: 16 September 1998 / revision received: 11 January 1999     

Precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon,San Andreas fault,earthquakes

The Stone Canyon earthquake sequence started during August 1982 and lasted for about four months. It contained four mainshocks withM _L 4, each with an aftershock zone about 4 km long. These mainshocks, progressing from southeast to northwest, ruptured a segment of the fault approximately 20 km long leaving two gaps, which were later filled by theM _L =4.6 mainshocks of January 14, and May 31, 1986. The equivalent magnitude of the sequence isM _L =5.0.Precursory seismic quiescence could be identified in: (1) the northernmost 10 km of the aftershock zone which contained three of the mainshocks; and (2) the southern gap in the aftershock zone. The fault segment containing the first mainshock and its aftershocks did not show quiescence. This pattern of precursory quiescence is very similar to two cases in Hawaii where the rupture initiation points of the mainshocks (M _S =7.2 and 6.6, respectively) were located in volumes of constant seismicity rate, surrounded by volumes with pronounced precursory quiescence.The precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon earthquakes lasted for 76 weeks, amounted to a reduction in rate of about 60%, and could be recognized without any false alarms. That is, the anomaly was unique within the 60 km study segment of the fault and in the years 1975 through August 1982. Eighteen foreshocks occurred between July 27 and August 7, 1982. We conclude that the August 1982 mainshocks could have been predicted, based on seismic quiescence and foreshocks.