Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

Problem of the motion of a star inside a layered inhomogeneous elliptical galaxy with a variable mass

The problem of the motion of a star inside a layered inhomogeneous rotating elliptical galaxy with a variable mass is considered. We have found an analogue of the Jacobi integral and determined the possible regions of motion. A solution to the equations of perturbed motion has been obtained.     

Contribution to diffuse gamma-rays in the Galactic Centre region from unresolved millisecond pulsars

Diffuse gamma-rays in the Galactic Centre region have been studied. We propose that there exists a population of millisecond pulsars in the Galactic Centre, which emit GeV gamma-rays through synchrotron-curvature radiation as predicted by outer gap models. These GeV gamma-rays from unresolved millisecond pulsars probably contribute to the diffuse gamma-ray spectrum detected by EGRET which displays a break at a few GeV. We have used a Monte Carlo method to obtain simulated samples of millisecond pulsars in the Galactic Centre region covered by EGRET  (∼ 15)  according to the different period and magnetic field distributions from observed millisecond pulsars in the Galactic field and globular clusters, and superposed their synchrotron-curvature spectra to derive the total GeV flux. Our simulated results suggest that there probably exist about 6000 unresolved millisecond pulsars in the region of angular resolution of EGRET, the emissions of which could contribute significantly to the observed diffuse gamma-rays in the Galactic Centre.     

Dynamical and compositional assessment of near‐Earth object mission targets

Abstract— Using an H‐plot analysis, we identify 234 currently known near‐Earth objects that are accessible for rendezvous with a “best case” delta‐V of less than 7 km/s. We provide a preliminary compositional interpretation and assessment of these potential targets by summarizing the taxonomic properties for 44 objects. Results for one‐half (22) of this sample are based on new spectroscopic measurements presented here. Our approach provides an easy‐to‐update method for giving guidelines to both observers and mission analysts for focusing on objects for which actual mission opportunities are most likely to be found. Observing prospects are presented for categorizing the taxonomic properties of the most accessible targets that are not yet measured.     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

A comparative study of the design spectra defined by Eurocode 8, UBC, IBC and Turkish Earthquake Code on R/C sample buildings

Earthquake codes have been revised and updated depending on the improvements in the representation of ground motions, soils and structures. These revisions have been more frequently seen in recent years. One of the key changes in earthquake codes has been performed on the design spectra. In this paper, the design spectra recommended by Turkish Earthquake Code and three other well known codes (Uniform Building Code, Eurocode 8, and International Building Code) are considered for comparison. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the differences caused by the use of different codes in the dynamic analysis and seismic verification of given types of buildings located at code defined different sites. The differences in expressions and some important points for elastic and inelastic spectra defined by the codes are briefly illustrated in tables and figures. Periods, base shears, lateral displacements and interstory drifts for the analyzed buildings located at code defined ground type are comparatively presented.     

Spectroscopic investigation of the chromosphere

The line profile of H as emanating from the interior of supergranular cells was measured at sin = 0, 0.6, 0.8 and 0.9. The measurements are described and the results presented.Mitteilung aus dem Fraunhofer Institut Nr. 117.     

A technique for calculating meteor plasma density and meteoroid mass from radar head echo scattering

Large-aperture radars detect the high-density plasma that forms in the vicinity of a meteoroid and moves approximately at its velocity; reflections from these plasmas are called head echoes. To determine the head plasma density and configuration, we model the interaction of a radar wave with the plasma without using assumptions about plasma density. This paper presents a scattering method that enables us to convert measurements of radar cross-section (RCS) from a head echo into plasma density by applying a spherical scattering model. We use three methods to validate our model. First, we compare the maximum plasma densities determined from the spherical solution using 30 head echoes detected simultaneously at VHF and UHF. Second, we use a head echo detected simultaneously at VHF, UHF and L-band to compare plasma densities at all frequencies. Finally, we apply our spherical solution to 723 VHF head echoes and calculate plasma density, line density and meteoroid mass in order to compare these values with those obtained from a meteoroid ablation and ionization model. In all three comparisons, our results show that the spherical solution produces consistent results across a wide frequency range and agrees well with the single-body ablation model.     

The star-forming content of the W3 giant molecular cloud

We have surveyed a ∼0.9 square degree area of the W3 giant molecular cloud (GMC) and star-forming region in the 850-μm continuum, using the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. A complete sample of 316 dense clumps were detected with a mass range from around 13 to  2500 M_⊙  . Part of the W3 GMC is subject to an interaction with the H  ii region and fast stellar winds generated by the nearby W4 OB association. We find that the fraction of total gas mass in dense, 850-μm traced structures is significantly altered by this interaction, being around 5–13 per cent in the undisturbed cloud but ∼25–37 per cent in the feedback-affected region. The mass distribution in the detected clump sample depends somewhat on assumptions of dust temperature and is not a simple, single power law but contains significant structure at intermediate masses. This structure is likely to be due to crowding of sources near or below the spatial resolution of the observations. There is little evidence of any difference between the index of the high-mass end of the clump mass function in the compressed region and in the unaffected cloud. The consequences of these results are discussed in terms of current models of triggered star formation.