An Analytical Model For Threshold Crossing Rates Of Concentration Fluctuations In Dispersing Plumes

A simple analytical model is developed for the meanupcrossing rate of plume concentration fluctuations assuming that thisprocess can be well approximated by a lognormal process. The resultingexpression requires only the specification of the in-plume fluctuationintensity and in-plume Taylor micro-time scale and, hence, does notexplicitly involve the joint probability density function of theconcentration and its derivative. The analytical model provides agood fit to some field measurements of the mean upcrossing rate ina dispersing plume.     

The Effect of Sunspot Weighting

Although W. Brunner began to weight sunspot counts (from 1926), using a method whereby larger spots were counted more than once, he compensated for the weighting by not counting enough smaller spots in order to maintain the same reduction factor (0.6) as was used by his predecessor A. Wolfer to reduce the count to R. Wolf’s original scale, so that the weighting did not have any effect on the scale of the sunspot number. In 1947, M. Waldmeier formalized the weighting (on a scale from 1 to 5) of the sunspot count made at Zurich and its auxiliary station Locarno. This explicit counting method, when followed, inflates the relative sunspot number over that which corresponds to the scale set by Wolfer (and matched by Brunner). Recounting some 60,000 sunspots on drawings from the reference station Locarno shows that the number of sunspots reported was “over counted” by \({\approx}\,44~\%\) on average, leading to an inflation (measured by an effective weight factor) in excess of 1.2 for high solar activity. In a double-blind parallel counting by the Locarno observer M. Cagnotti, we determined that Svalgaard’s count closely matches that of Cagnotti, allowing us to determine from direct observation the daily weight factor for spots since 2003 (and sporadically before). The effective total inflation turns out to have two sources: a major one (15?–?18 %) caused by weighting of spots, and a minor source (4?–?5 %) caused by the introduction of the Zürich classification of sunspot groups which increases the group count by 7?–?8 % and the relative sunspot number by about half that. We find that a simple empirical equation (depending on the activity level) fits the observed factors well, and use that fit to estimate the weighting inflation factor for each month back to the introduction of effective inflation in 1947 and thus to be able to correct for the over-counts and to reduce sunspot counting to the Wolfer method in use from 1894 onwards.     

A Quantitative Model of Energy Release and Heating by Time-dependent,Localized Reconnection in a Flare with Thermal Loop-top X-ray Source

We present a quantitative model of the magnetic energy stored and then released through magnetic reconnection for a flare on 26 February 2004. This flare, well observed by RHESSI and TRACE, shows evidence of non-thermal electrons for only a brief, early phase. Throughout the main period of energy release there is a super-hot (T?30 MK) plasma emitting thermal bremsstrahlung atop the flare loops. Our model describes the heating and compression of such a source by localized, transient magnetic reconnection. It is a three-dimensional generalization of the Petschek model, whereby Alfvén-speed retraction following reconnection drives supersonic inflows parallel to the field lines, which form shocks: heating, compressing, and confining a loop-top plasma plug. The confining inflows provide longer life than a freely expanding or conductively cooling plasma of similar size and temperature. Superposition of successive transient episodes of localized reconnection across a current sheet produces an apparently persistent, localized source of high-temperature emission. The temperature of the source decreases smoothly on a time scale consistent with observations, far longer than the cooling time of a single plug. Built from a disordered collection of small plugs, the source need not have the coherent jet-like structure predicted by steady-state reconnection models. This new model predicts temperatures and emission measure consistent with the observations of 26 February 2004. Furthermore, the total energy released by the flare is found to be roughly consistent with that predicted by the model. Only a small fraction of the energy released appears in the super-hot source at any one time, but roughly a quarter of the flare energy is thermalized by the reconnection shocks over the course of the flare. All energy is presumed to ultimately appear in the lower-temperature (T?20 MK) post-flare loops. The number, size, and early appearance of these loops in TRACE’s 171 Å band are consistent with the type of transient reconnection assumed in the model.     

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.     

Hybridization of the probability perturbation method with gradient information

Geostatistically based history-matching methods make it possible to devise history-matching strategies that will honor geologic knowledge about the reservoir. However, the performance of these methods is known to be impeded by slow convergence rates resulting from the stochastic nature of the algorithm. It is the purpose of this paper to introduce a method that integrates qualitative gradient information into the probability perturbation method to improve convergence. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated on a synthetic history-matching example. The results indicate that inclusion of qualitative gradient information improves the performance of the probability perturbation method.     

A level-set corrector to an adaptive multiscale permeability prediction

We consider the inverse problem of permeability estimation for two-phase porous-media flow. The novel approach is based on regularization by zonation, where the geometry and size of the regions are chosen adaptively during the optimization procedure. To achieve this, we have utilized level-set functions to represent the permeability. The available data are sparsely distributed in space; hence, it is reasonable to confine the estimation to coarse-scale structures. The level-set approach is able to alter the boundaries between regions of different permeability without strict restrictions on their shape; however, when the data are sparse, a reasonable initial guess for the permeability is required. For this task, we use adaptive multiscale permeability estimation, which has the potential of identifying main permeability variations. These are described by a piecewise constant function, where the constant values are attained on rectangular zones. In the current work, we develop a level-set corrector strategy, assuming adaptive multiscale permeability estimation as a predictor.     

Types of sedimentary environment in alluvial sediments distinguished on the basis of its chemical constitution: the example of the lower course of the Obra river (Western Poland)

Research concerning chemical constitution of alluvial sediments was done in the lower course of the Obra river (Western Poland). The fragment of vertical profile, which consisted of various alluvial sediments (fine sands, peats, and sandy silts) was chosen for detailed analysis. The main research problem was to determine if lithology and chemical constitution of alluvial deposits are interconnected in a distinct way within studied section of the Obra river valley, and, if changes of chemical elements’ concentration could be used to illustrate depositional processes, which take place in riverbed and floodplain. Concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Ca, Mg, and K were determined in collected sediment samples. Next, geochemical groups of alluvial sediments were distinguished using cluster analysis. Investigated changes of chemical elements’ concentration show that there is a distinct border between the environment of organic sediments, which marks the place of former functioning of the Obra riverbed, and sandy silts, which were deposited within floodplain during floods. Besides, floodplain sediments, riverbed sediments, and reductive environment within peat deposits were singled out on the basis of the analysis.     

Well placement optimization subject to realistic field development constraints

This work considers the well placement problem in reservoir management and field development optimization. In particular, it emphasizes embedding realistic and practical constraints into a mathematical optimization formulation. Such constraints are a prerequisite for the wider use of mathematical optimization techniques in well placement problems, since constraints are a way to incorporate reservoir engineering knowledge into the problem formulation. There are important design limitations that are used by the field development team when treating the well placement problem, and these limitations need to be articulated and eventually formalized within the problem before conducting the search for optimal well placements. In addition, these design limitations may be explicit or implicit. In this work, various design limitations pertaining to well locations have been developed in close collaboration with a field operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Moreover, this work focuses on developing constraint-handling capability to enforce these various considerations during optimization. In particular, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to optimize for the well locations, and various practical well placement constraints are incorporated into the PSO algorithm using two different constraint-handling techniques: a decoder procedure and the penalty method. The decoder procedure maps the feasible search space onto a cube and has the advantage of not requiring parameter tuning. The penalty method converts the constrained optimization problem into an unconstrained one by introducing an additional term, which is called a penalty function, to the objective function. In contrast to the penalty method, only feasible solutions are evaluated in the decoder method. Through numerical simulations, a comparison between the penalty method and the decoder technique is performed for two cases. We show that the decoder technique can easily be implemented for the well placement problem, and furthermore, that it performs better than the penalty method in most of the cases.     

High resolution facies record on late Holocene flood plain sediments from lower reaches of Narmada Valley,Western India

A high resolution quantitative granulometric record for site Uchediya [21°43′2.22″ N, 73° 6′26.22″ E; 10 m a. s. l.] gives understanding towards accretion history of the late Holocene flood plain in the lower reaches of Narmada River. Two sediment facies (sandy and muddy) and seven subfacies (sandy subfacies: St_MS+FS+CS, Sm_FS+MS, Sl_FS+VFS, and St_{MS + CS}; muddy subfacies: Fm_SILT+VFS+FS, Fm_SILT+VFS (O) and Fm_SILT+VFS (T)) are identified based on cluster analysis supplemented with sedimentary structures observed in field and other laboratory data. Changes in hydrodynamics are further deduced based on various sedimentological parameters and their ratios leading to arrive at a depositional model.     

Solar rotation velocity as determined from sunspot drawings of J. Hevelius in the 17th century

Using two original copies of Hevelius' Selenographia and reducing spot positions with two different methods, we found that the solar angular rotation velocity at the beginning of the Maunder minimum was about the same as today. The gradient of the differential rotation was slightly steeper than given in modern reductions, but not significantly different. These findings are in contradiction to those published by Eddy et al. (1976).