Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.     

Iron-manganese formations in the Baikal region

This work is a review of the modern concepts of the accumulation of Fe and Mn in the Baikal bottom sediments and the regularities of formation of iron-manganese (including phosphate-bearing) nodules in the lake. Special attention is given to the probable participation of hydrothermal water in this process and the genesis of ancient nodules deeply buried in the Baikal sediments. The possible relationship between the shore ores and the nodules in the bottom sediments in the adjacent Baikal regions has been first shown.     

The Role of Groundwater for Lake‐Water Quality and Quantification of N Seepage

The heterogeneous nature of both groundwater discharge to a lake (inflow) and nitrate concentrations in groundwater can lead to significant errors in calculations of nutrient loading. Therefore, an integrated approach, combining groundwater flow and transport modelling with observed nitrate and ammonium groundwater concentrations, was used to estimate nitrate loading from a catchment via groundwater to an oligotrophic flow‐through lake (Lake Hampen, Denmark). The transport model was calibrated against three vertical nitrate profiles from multi‐level wells and 17 shallow wells bordering a crop field near the lake. Nitrate concentrations in groundwater discharging to the lake from the crop field were on average 70 times higher than in groundwater from forested areas. The crop field was responsible for 96% of the total nitrate loading (16.2 t NO₃/year) to the lake even though the field only covered 4.5% of the catchment area. Consequently, a small change in land use in the catchment will have a large effect on the lake nutrient balance and possible lake restoration. The study is the first known attempt to estimate the decrease of nitrate loading via groundwater to a seepage lake when an identified catchment source (a crop field) is removed.     

High-pressure metamorphism and deep-crustal seismicity: evidence from contemporaneous formation of pseudotachylytes and eclogite facies coronas

The metamorphic complex of the Western Gneiss Region (WGR), Norway, constitutes the root of the Caledonian mountain belt and experienced temperatures of 700–800 °C and pressures in excess of 20 kbar during peak metamorphism. Mafic bodies surrounded by strongly banded felsic gneisses commonly exhibit variable reequilibration to granulite and eclogite facies conditions and locally preserve igneous minerals and textures. The Kråkeneset gabbro, located on the island of Vågsøy in the mixed HP/UHP zone of the western WGR, display evidence for extensive metastability through the entire prograde and retrograde P, T histories. Eclogite constitutes less than a few percent of the total volume of the body and high-pressure assemblages typically form thin coronas around magmatic phases or occur along localized zones of brittle deformation and fluid infiltration. The gabbro displays pseudotachylyte vein networks that define subparallel brittle fault zones, <50 cm wide, transecting the gabbro body. The pseudotachylytes contain μm- to mm-scale amoeboid and dendrite-like textures of garnet and plagioclase with inclusions of the eclogite facies minerals orthopyroxene, omphacite, amphibole, and dolomite, suggesting rapid disequilibrium growth of minerals during high-pressure conditions. Textural and petrological evidence from pseudotachylytes and corona structures show that the growth of these unusual textures occurred shortly after pseudotachylyte crystallization by a process of rapid solid-state alteration of a microcrystalline pseudotachylyte matrix. The pseudotachylyte-lined fault zones are in close spatial association with numerous amphibole±carbonate-filled hydrofractures with conspicuous fracture-parallel alteration zones defined by hydrous eclogite facies assemblages. These eclogite facies hydrofractures testify to the existence of high fluid pressures and to fluid infiltration following brittle failure during high-grade metamorphic conditions. Geothermobarometric estimates (ca. T=650–700 °C, P=20 kbar) and petrological data imply that hydrofracturing, pseudotachylyte crystallization, and the subsequent pseudotachylyte alteration process must have occurred during high-pressure metamorphism. Our observations are suggestive of a deep-crustal earthquake scenario where a high-pressurized fluid phase plays a double role by causing both seismic failure through the embrittlement effect and facilitating eclogitization of the metastable anhydrous gabbro. Metamorphic reaction along hydrofractures and fault planes led to the development of eclogite facies foliation fabrics and illustrate the rheological change from brittle to plastic behavior associated with the gabbro to eclogite transition. The formation of weak deep-crustal shear zones following brittle failure represents an arrested initiation of the physical breakup and metamorphic reequilibration of the Kråkeneset gabbro during its residence deep in the former Caledonian collision zone.     

Impact of Ditching in a Small Forested Catchment on Concentrations of Suspended Material, Organic Carbon, Hydrogen Ions and Metals in Stream Water

Stream-water samples were collected during a 4-year-period in twosmall streams, one whose catchment was ditched for forestry halfway through the sampling period and another nearby reference stream whose catchment was not ditched during this period. The main aim was to study the impact of forest ditching on stream-water quality. Whereas the artificial drainage did not change the hydrograph pattern, it had a large effect on stream hydrochemistry: the concentrations of suspended material, Mn, Ca, Mg and Al increased, theconcentrations of total organic carbon decreased, and pH increased by approximately one unit, from an average of 4.4 to 5.4. The increase in suspended material, Mn and Al concentrations is explainedby the physical mobilisation of mineral particulates/colloids from mineral soils (till) exposed on the ditch slopes beneath the peat layer, while the increase in Ca and Mg loads is explained by the release of Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ in exchange reactions in this same soil layer. The increase in pH and decrease in TOC concentrations after ditching are related to changes in hydrological flow paths in the catchments, and most likely to immobilisation of both hydrogen ions and humic substances in the near neutral till horizon exposed beneath the peat layer. Only the aquatic abundance of Fewas not significantly affected by the ditching.     

Solar Image Restoration By Use Of Multi-frame Blind De-convolution With Multiple Objects And Phase Diversity

An extension of Joint Phase Diverse Speckle image restoration is presented. Multiple realizations of multiple objects having known wavefront relations with each other can now be restored jointly. As the alignment of the imaging setup does not change, near-perfect alignment can be achieved between different objects, thus greatly reducing false signals in the determination of derived quantities, such as magnetograms, Dopplergrams, etc. The method was implemented in C++ as an image restoration server, to which worker clients can connect and disconnect randomly, so that a large number of CPUs can be used to speed up the restorations. We present a number of examples of applications of the restoration method to observations obtained with the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope on La Palma.     

Troposphere delays from space geodetic techniques, water vapor radiometers, and numerical weather models over a series of continuous VLBI campaigns

Continuous, very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) campaigns over 2 weeks have been carried out repeatedly, i.e., CONT02 in October 2002, CONT05 in September 2005, CONT08 in August 2008, and CONT11 in September 2011, to demonstrate the highest accuracy the current VLBI was capable at that time. In this study, we have compared zenith total delays (ZTD) and troposphere gradients as consistently estimated from the observations of VLBI, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) at VLBI sites participating in the CONT campaigns. We analyzed the CONT campaigns using the state-of-the-art software following common processing strategies as closely as possible. In parallel, ZTD and gradients were derived from numerical weather models, i.e., from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis fields, the High Resolution Limited Area Model (European sites), the Japan Meteorological Agency-Operational Meso-Analysis Field (MANAL, over Japan), and the Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator (Tsukuba, Japan). Finally, zenith wet delays were estimated from the observations of water vapor radiometers (WVR) at sites where the WVR observables are available during the CONT sessions. The best ZTD agreement, interpreted as the smallest standard deviation, was found between GNSS and VLBI techniques to be about 5–6 mm at most of the co-located sites and CONT campaigns. We did not detect any significant improvement in the ZTD agreement between various techniques over time, except for DORIS and MANAL. On the other hand, the agreement and thus the accuracy of the troposphere parameters mainly depend on the amount of humidity in the atmosphere.     

Complex study of the auroral arc dynamics and ionospheric plasma convection in prenoon hours

The dynamics of auroral arcs, observed in the prenoon sector during the 2-h period, has been studied in the context of ionospheric convection. The appearance of an isolated arc, the poleward drift velocity of which pronouncedly exceeded the plasma drift velocity, accompanied the IMF impulse and could result from the Alfvén resonance oscillations of the magnetosphere. Arcs that appeared after the northward turning of the IMF vertical component drifted poleward at a velocity close to the convection velocity. The mechanism of arc generation is related to the flute instability which develops in the region of the large-scale field-aligned current. Flute instability indications are found out in the POLAR satellite data. The study confirms the previously proposed classification criterion for dayside arcs with the source on closed field lines, based on the character of arc drift as compared to convection.     

Northern landscapes in transition: Evidence,approach and ways forward using the Krycklan Catchment Study

Improving our ability to detect changes in terrestrial and aquatic systems is a grand challenge in the environmental sciences. In a world experiencing increasingly rapid rates of climate change and ecosystem transformation, our ability to understand and predict how, when, where, and why changes occur is essential for adapting and mitigating human behaviours. In this context, long-term field research infrastructures have a fundamentally important role to play. For northern boreal landscapes, the Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) has supported monitoring and research aimed at revealing these changes since it was initiated in 1980. Early studies focused on forest regeneration and microclimatic conditions, nutrient balances and forest hydrology, which included monitoring climate variables, water balance components, and stream water chemistry. The research infrastructure has expanded over the years to encompass a 6790 ha catchment, which currently includes 11 gauged streams, ca. 1000 soil lysimeters, 150 groundwater wells, >500 permanent forest inventory plots, and a 150 m tall tower (a combined ecosystem-atmosphere station of the ICOS, Integrated Carbon Observation System) for measurements of atmospheric gas concentrations and biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, and energy. In addition, the KCS has also been the focus of numerous high resolution multi-spectral LiDAR measurements and large scale experiments. This large collection of equipment and data generation supports a range of disciplinary studies, but more importantly fosters multi-, trans-, and interdisciplinary research opportunities. The KCS attracts a broad collection of scientists, including biogeochemists, ecologists, foresters, geologists, hydrologists, limnologists, soil scientists, and social scientists, all of whom bring their knowledge and experience to the site. The combination of long-term monitoring, shorter-term research projects, and large-scale experiments, including manipulations of climate and various forest management practices, has contributed much to our understanding of boreal landscape functioning, while also supporting the development of models and guidelines for research, policy, and management.     

Theoretical and practical aspects on benthic quality assessment according to the EU-Water Framework Directive – Examples from Swedish waters

A previously presented objective method to calculate each species sensitivity to disturbance is here slightly modified and implemented in the Benthic Quality Index (BQI) for marine benthic invertebrates. A framework for assessment of water bodies based on multi-site BQI-values is also presented, where a certain variation of BQI-values is allowed to cover the heterogeneity within each water body. The 20th percentile, using bootstrapping, from the available sites’ BQI-values is compared with the status boundaries for quality assessment. The reliability of the assessment depends on the background information available for the boundary setting as well as the number of sampling sites included in the assessment. Agreement between time series of quality assessments in areas with known changes in anthropogenic disturbances is encouraging. Problems associated with water body assessment based on few or no samples, as well as multiple sampling occasions during the 6-yr WFD cycle are discussed.