Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

In accordance with the concept that only full accounting of major greenhouse gases corresponds to the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, this paper considers uncertainties of regional (national) terrestrial biota Full Carbon Accounting (FCA), both those already achieved and those expected. We analyze uncertainties of major components of the FCA of forest ecosystems of a large boreal region in Siberia (~300 × 10⁶ ha). Some estimates for forests of other regions and Russia as a whole are used for comparison. The systems integration of available information sources and different types of models within the landscape-ecosystem approach are shown to have enabled an estimation of the major carbon fluxes (Net Primary Production, NPP, and heterotrophic respiration, HR) for the region for a single year at the level of 7–12% (confidential interval, CI, 0.9), Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) of 35–40%, and Net Biome Production (NBP) of 60–80%. The most uncertain aspect is the assessment of change in the soil carbon pool, which limits practical application of a pool-based approach. Regionalization of global process-based models, introduction of climatic data in empirical models, use of an appropriate time period for accounting and reporting, harmonization and multiple constraints of estimates obtained by different independent methods decrease the above uncertainties of NEP and NBP by about half. The results of this study support the idea that FCA of forest ecosystems is relevant in the post-Kyoto international negotiation process.     

Geographic Patterns of Craft Breweries at the Intraurban Scale

This article examines the intraurban geography of craft breweries in ten cities across the United States. First, through an exhaustive literature review, we outline both supply- and demand-side factors that might cause craft breweries to cluster. Second, we empirically test whether these establishments tend to cluster within cities using spatial statistical techniques. Many communities are attempting to support the establishment of more craft breweries as a way to boost tourism and economic development. The findings from this article aid in this discussion by providing insights into how craft brewers locate and the factors that could influence their location decision behavior. Our findings suggest that craft brewers do in fact cluster. There are both supply and demand factors responsible. On the supply side, the collaborative environment within the industry and the artisan nature of the industry's products allows for benefits of clustering to outweigh the costs associated with this behavior. On the demand side, the emergence of “brewery districts” allows individual brewers to enjoy the reputation benefits associated with the district in terms of increased foot traffic from locals and visitors looking to sample a variety of beers.     

A comparison of annual and seasonal carbon dioxide effluxes between sub-Arctic Sweden and High-Arctic Svalbard

Recent climate change predictions suggest altered patterns of winter precipitation across the Arctic. It has been suggested that the presence, timing and quantity of snow all affect microbial activity, thus influencing CO₂ production in soil. In this study annual and seasonal emissions of CO₂ were estimated in High-Arctic Adventdalen, Svalbard, and sub-Arctic Latnjajaure, Sweden, using a new trace gas-based method to track real-time diffusion rates through the snow. Summer measurements from snow-free soils were made using a chamber-based method. Measurements were obtained from different snow regimes in order to evaluate the effect of snow depth on winter CO₂ effluxes. Total annual emissions of CO₂ from the sub-Arctic site (0.662–1.487 kg CO₂ m^–2 yr^–1) were found to be more than double the emissions from the High-Arctic site (0.369–0.591 kg CO₂ m^–2 yr^–1). There were no significant differences in winter effluxes between snow regimes or vegetation types, indicating that spatial variability in winter soil CO₂ effluxes are not directly linked to snow cover thickness or soil temperatures. Total winter emissions (0.004–0.248 kg CO₂ m^–2) were found to be in the lower range of those previously described in the literature. Winter emissions varied in their contribution to total annual production between 1 and 18%. Artificial snow drifts shortened the snow-free period by 2 weeks and decreased the annual CO₂ emission by up to 20%. This study suggests that future shifts in vegetation zones may increase soil respiration from Arctic tundra regions.     

The formation and evolution of East Australian current warm-core eddies

Data on East Australian Current (EAC) warm-core eddies were obtained over the period 1976–1978 by the Department of Defence and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). In that time we have learned that warm eddies form by pinch-off of poleward EAC meanders, can coalesce with the EAC and appear generally similar to Gulf Stream, Kuroshio and other current system eddies. Two eddies were tracked over 1977–1978 with satellite buoys and one (eddy B) was repeatedly studied over eleven months. A deep winter core formed by winter convective cooling and the following summer a new surface mixed layer formed on top of the core. The seasonal changes have been analysed for heat content and changes in dynamic relief. The eddy decayed with a time constant of 650 ± 150 days, due to upwelling below the seasonal thermocline. Surface cooling had little effect on eddy lifetime. The eddy contracted horizontally, possibly after some interaction with the EAC, giving rise to eddy spin-up with increasing age. Surface currents increased after eleven months to 2.0 m s^?1. The dynamic relief during summer was also apparently boosted by contact with the EAC. Eddy B was observed to coalesce with a new meander of the EAC rather than drift away to the south. It is proposed that the formation of these eddies is governed by the westward propagation of the baroclinic Rossby wave known as the Tasman Front. Pinch-off of eddies adjacent to the coast and the variable flow of the EAC may be caused by the baroclinic wave ‘breaking’ on the coast. The eddy formation rate is about two per year and most eddies coalesce with the EAC and do not escape to the south. Eddies coalesce and re-separate, creating many subsurface isothermal layers from old cores south of 34°S.     

The extension of the parametrization of the radio source coordinates in geodetic VLBI and its impact on the time series analysis

The radio sources within the most recent celestial reference frame (CRF) catalog ICRF2 are represented by a single, time-invariant coordinate pair. The datum sources were chosen mainly according to certain statistical properties of their position time series. Yet, such statistics are not applicable unconditionally, and also ambiguous. However, ignoring systematics in the source positions of the datum sources inevitably leads to a degradation of the quality of the frame and, therefore, also of the derived quantities such as the Earth orientation parameters. One possible approach to overcome these deficiencies is to extend the parametrization of the source positions, similarly to what is done for the station positions. We decided to use the multivariate adaptive regression splines algorithm to parametrize the source coordinates. It allows a great deal of automation, by combining recursive partitioning and spline fitting in an optimal way. The algorithm finds the ideal knot positions for the splines and, thus, the best number of polynomial pieces to fit the data autonomously. With that we can correct the ICRF2 a priori coordinates for our analysis and eliminate the systematics in the position estimates. This allows us to introduce also special handling sources into the datum definition, leading to on average 30 % more sources in the datum. We find that not only the CPO can be improved by more than 10 % due to the improved geometry, but also the station positions, especially in the early years of VLBI, can benefit greatly.     

Biostratigraphic Evidence of the Allerød-Younger Dryas-Preboreal Oscillation in Northern Iceland

Basal sediments of Lake Torfadalsvatn, northern Iceland, record changes in terrestrial and limnic environments in the period 11,300-9000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. These changes were probably forced by climate and connected with displacements of the marine polar front and sea-ice margin. Pollen, spores, green algae (Pediastrum), saturation isothermal remanent magnetization, and carbon content of the basal sediments provide the first detailed biostratigraphic record of the last glacial-interglacial transition in Iceland. During the first pioneer phase, beginning at ca. 11,300 ¹⁴C yr B.P., grasses and fell-field herbs became established, and lake productivity was very low. At ca. 10,900 ¹⁴C yr B.P., climatic and soil conditions became favorable for shrubs and dwarf shrubs. This change, together with increased limnic productivity, clearly indicates long seasons without ice-cover in the sea immediately north of Iceland. A return to a colder climate (Younger Dryas), probably in connection with a southward displacement of the marine polar front, occurred by 10,600 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Shrub and dwarf-shrub vegetation disappeared, and limnic productivity diminished. A second pioneer vegetation phase, dominated by Oxyria/Rumex and grasses, was initiated by a change to longer seasons without sea ice at ca. 9900 ¹⁴C yr B.P. This warming is also evident as a contemporaneous increase in lake productivity. After ca. 9400 ¹⁴C yr B.P. the reestablishment of dwarf-shrub heaths and very high limnic productivity indicate further warming.     

Downscaling a twentieth century global climate simulation to the North Sea

The regional ocean model system (ROMS) is used to downscale a 26-year period of the twentieth century 20C3M experiment from the global coupled Bergen climate model (BCM) for the North Sea. Compared to an observational-based climatology, BCM have good results on the mean temperature, except for too low winter temperature. This is connected to a too weak inflow of Atlantic water. The downscaling gives added value to the BCM results by providing regional details, doubling the Atlantic inflow, and improving the mean winter temperature. For mean salinity, BCM has values very close to the climatology, whereas the downscaling becomes too fresh. The downscaling, however, improves the sea surface salinity, the vertical structure, and the Norwegian Coastal Current. It is concluded that the downscaling procedure as presented here is a suitable tool for assessing the future Atlantic inflow and sea temperature in the North Sea based on a global climate projection.     

Numerical Modeling of Nitrate Removal in Anoxic Groundwater during River Flooding of Riparian Zones

A numerical study demonstrates the effects of flooding on subsurface hydrological flowpaths and nitrate removal in anoxic groundwater in riparian zones with a top peat layer. A series of two-dimensional numerical simulations with changing conditions for flow (steady state or transient with flooding), hydrogeology, denitrification, and duration of flooding demonstrate how flowpaths, residence times, and nitrate removal are affected. In periods with no flooding groundwater flows horizontally and discharges to the river through the riverbed. During periods with flooding, shallow groundwater is forced upwards as discharge through peat layers that often have more optimal conditions for denitrification caused by the presence of highly reactive organic matter. The contrast in hydraulic conductivity between the sand aquifer and the overlying peat layer, as well as the flooding duration, have a significant role in determining the degree of nitrate removal.     

Seagrass ecophysiology meets ecological genomics: are we ready?

In March 2011, the Ecophysiology and Genetics Working Groups of the European Science Foundation COST Action ES 0906, entitled Seagrass Productivity: From Genes to Ecosystem Management, organized an exploratory workshop entitled “Linking Ecophysiology and Ecogenomics in Seagrass Systems”. The goal of the workshop was to discuss how to integrate comparative gene expression studies with physiological processes such as photosynthetic performance, carbon and nitrogen utilization and environmental adaptation. The main questions discussed for integrative research related to mechanisms of carbon utilization, light requirements, temperature effects and natural variation in pH and ocean acidification. It was concluded that the seagrass research community is still in the nascent stages of linking ecophysiology with genomic responses, as carbon and nitrogen metabolism of seagrasses have not been sufficiently well studied. Likewise, genomic approaches have only been able to assign meaningful interpretations to a handful of differentially expressed genes. Nevertheless, the way forward has been established.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.