Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Nucleation and growth of kink bands

The geometric and strain properties of an ideal kink band in a perfectly plastic material with one slip surface are determined and two plausible modes by which a kink band can grow while maintaining these properties are presented. The first mode involves change in the orientation of the boundary surface of the kink band as it broadens. In the second mode the initial orientation of this boundary surface is maintained during broadening.A theoretical model is proposed for kink band formation in three stages: first, in an elastically strained material with a suitably oriented planar anisotropy; a small nucleus is either present or develops, and grows in thickness by one or the other or by both of the growth modes; second, as some critical thickness is reached, this nucleus propagates longitudinally until the excessive elastic distortion surrounding its ends is sufficiently relieved, or until the boundary of the body is reached; and third, the band widens by lateral migration of its boundaries, most probably by mode 2 growth.It is proposed that the direction of longitudinal propagation—and hence the orientation of the kink band with respect to principal normal stress—is decided by the value of a, the kink angle, in the nucleus at the time the critical thickness for propagation is reached. A further proposal is that this value of a is in turn decided by a principle of maximum plastic work: the instantaneous increment in strain or in volume within a nucleus is always the one for which the instantaneous increment in plastic work is a maximum at constant deviatoric stress.Calculations based on this theory for the two growth modes working either separately or together as competing processes yield three models of kink band nucleation in reasonable agreement with published experimental data. The most appealing of these models physically is one in which early mode 1 growth is replaced by mode 2 growth as the increments in mechanical work for the two modes become equal.     

Compositional zoning of garnet porphyroblasts from the polymetamorphic Wölz Complex, Eastern Alps

We employ garnet isopleth thermobarometry to derive the P–T conditions of Permian and Cretaceous metamorphism in the Wölz crystalline Complex of the Eastern Alps. The successive growth increments of two distinct growth zones of the garnet porphyroblasts from the Wölz Complex indicate garnet growth in the temperature interval of 540°C to 560°C at pressures of 400 to 500 MPa during the Permian and temperatures ranging from 550°C to 570°C at pressures in the range of 700 to 800 MPa during the Cretaceous Eo-Alpine event. Based on diffusion modelling of secondary compositional zoning within the outermost portion of the first garnet growth zone constraints on the timing of the Permian and the Eo-Alpine metamorphic events are derived. We infer that the rocks remained in a temperature interval between 570°C and 610°C over about 10 to 20 Ma during the Permian, whereas the high temperature stage of the Eo-Alpine event only lasted for about 0.2 Ma. Although peak metamorphic temperatures never exceeded 620°C, the prolonged thermal annealing during the Permian produced several 100 µm wide alteration halos in the garnet porphyroblasts and partially erased their thermobarometric memory. Short diffusion profiles which evolved around late stage cracks within the first garnet growth zone constrain the crack formation to have occurred during cooling below about 450°C after the Eo-Alpine event.     

Rare gas isotopes and parent trace elements in ultrabasic-alkaline-carbonatite complexes, Kola Peninsula: identification of lower mantle plume component

During the Devonian magmatism (370 Ma ago) ∼20 ultrabasic-alkaline-carbonatite complexes (UACC) were formed in the Kola Peninsula (north-east of the Baltic Shield). In order to understand mantle and crust sources and processes having set these complexes, rare gases were studied in ∼300 rocks and mineral separates from 9 UACC, and concentrations of parent Li, K, U, and Th were measured in ∼70 samples. ⁴He/³He ratios in He released by fusion vary from pure radiogenic values ∼10⁸ down to 6 × 10⁴. The cosmogenic and extraterrestrial sources as well as the radiogenic production are unable to account for the extremely high abundances of ³He, up to 4 × 10⁻⁹ cc/g, indicating a mantle-derived fluid in the Kola rocks. In some samples helium extracted by crushing shows quite low ⁴He/³He = 3 × 10⁴, well below the mean ratio in mid ocean ridge basalts (MORB), (8.9 ± 1.0) × 10⁴, indicating the contribution of ³He-rich plume component. Magnetites are principal carriers of this component. Trapped ³He is extracted from these minerals at high temperatures 1100°C to 1600°C which may correspond to decrepitation or annealing primary fluid inclusions, whereas radiogenic ⁴He is manly released at a temperature range of 500°C to 1200°C, probably corresponding to activation of ⁴He sites degraded by U, Th decay.Similar ⁴He/³He ratios were observed in Oligocene flood basalts from the Ethiopian plume. According to a paleo-plate-tectonic reconstruction, 450 Ma ago the Baltica (including the Kola Peninsula) continent drifted not far from the present-day site of that plume. It appears that both magmatic provinces could relate to one and the same deep-seated mantle source.The neon isotopic compositions confirm the occurrence of a plume component since, within a conventional ²⁰Ne/²²Ne versus ²¹Ne/²²Ne diagram, the regression line for Kola samples is indistinguishable from those typical of plumes, such as Loihi (Hawaii). ²⁰Ne/²²Ne ratios (up to 12.1) correlate well with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ones, allowing to infer a source ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio of about 4000 for the mantle end-member, which is 10 times lower than that of the MORB source end-member. In (³He/²²Ne)_PRIM versus (⁴He/²¹Ne)_RAD plot the Kola samples are within array established for plume and MORB samples; almost constant production ratio of (⁴He/²¹Ne)_RAD ≅ 2 × 10⁷ is translated via this array into (³He/²²Ne)_PRIM ∼ 10. The latter value approaches the solar ratio implying the non-fractionated solar-like rare gas pattern in a plume source.The Kola UACC show systematic variations in the respective contributions of in situ-produced radiogenic isotopes and mantle-derived isotopes. Since these complexes were essentially plutonic, we propose that the depth of emplacement exerted a primary control on the retention of both trapped and radiogenic species, which is consistent with geological observations. The available data allow to infer the following sequence of processes for the emplacement and evolution of Kola Devonian UACC: 1) Ascent of the plume from the lower mantle to the subcontinental lithosphere; the plume triggered mantle metasomatism not later than ∼700 to 400 Ma ago. 2) Metasomatism of the lithosphere (beneath the central part of the Kola Peninsula), including enrichment in volatile (e.g., He, Ne) and in incompatible (e.g., U, Th) elements. 3) Multistage intrusions of parental melts, their degassing, and crystallisation differentiation ∼370 Ma ago. 4) Postcrystallisation migration of fluids, including loss of radiogenic and of trapped helium. Based on model compositions of the principle terrestrial reservoirs we estimate the contributions (by mass) of the plume material, the upper mantle material, and the atmosphere (air-saturated groundwater), into the source of parent melt at ∼2%, 97.95%, and ∼0.05%, respectively.     

Leaching of metals from copper smelter flue dust (Mufulira,Zambian Copperbelt)

The leaching behaviour of electrostatic precipitator dust from the Mufulira Cu smelter (Copperbelt, Zambia) was studied using a 48-h pH-static leaching experiment (CEN/TS 14997). The release of metals (Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) and changes in mineralogical composition using X-ray diffraction and PHREEQC-2 modelling were investigated in the pH range of 3–7. The highest concentrations of metals were released at pH 3–4.5, which encompasses the natural pH of the dust suspension (～4.3). About 40% of the total Cu was leached at pH 3, yielding 107 g/kg. Chalcanthite (CuSO₄·5H₂O), magnetite (Fe₃O₄) and delafossite (CuFeO₂) represented the principal phases of the studied dust. In contact with water, chalcanthite was dissolved and hydrated Cu sulphates precipitated at pH 4–7. Gypsum (CaSO₄·2H₂O) and secondary Fe or Al phases were observed in the leached residues. Serious environmental impact due to leaching may occur in dust-contaminated soil systems in the vicinity of the smelting plants.     

Simulating coseismic deformation of quartz in the middle crust and fabric evolution during postseismic stress relaxation — An experimental study

Non-steady state deformation and annealing experiments on vein quartz are designed to simulate earthquake-driven episodic deformation in the middle crust. Three types of experiments were carried out using a modified Griggs-type solid medium deformation apparatus. All three start with high stress deformation at a temperature of 400 °C and a constant strain rate of 10^− 4 s^− 1 (type A), some are followed by annealing in the stability field of α-quartz for 14–15 h at zero nominal differential stress and temperatures of 800–1000 °C (type A + B), or by annealing for 15 h at 900 °C and at a residual stress (type A + C).The quartz samples reveal a very high strength > 2 GPa at a few percent of permanent strain. The microstructures after short-term high stress deformation (type A) record localized brittle and plastic deformation. Statisc annealing (type A + B) results in recrystallisation restricted to the highly damaged zones. The new grains aligned in strings and without crystallographic preferred orientation, indicate nucleation and growth. Annealing at non-hydrostatic conditions (type A + C) results in shear zones that also develop from deformation bands or cracks that formed during the preceding high stress deformation. In this case, however, the recrystallised zone is several grain diameters wide, the grains are elongate, and a marked crystallographic preferred orientation indicates flow by dislocation creep with dynamic recrystallisation. Quartz microstructures identical to those produced in type A + B experiments are observed in cores recovered from Long Valley Exploratory Well in the Quaternary Long Valley Caldera, California, with considerable seismic activity.The experiments demonstrate the behaviour of quartz at coseismic loading (type A) and subsequent static annealing (type A + B) or creep at decaying stress (type A + C) in the middle crust. The experimentally produced microfabrics allow to identify similar processes and conditions in exhumed rocks.     

The use of principle component analyses in characterising trace and major elemental distribution in a 55 kyr peat deposit in tropical Australia: Implications to paleoclimate

The Lynch’s Crater peat deposit in NE-Australia is a sensitive environmental archive located in the tropical Southern Hemisphere. This unique deposit illustrates that local and regional changes had a profound effect on the local Australian ecosystem over the past 55 kyr. To obtain a proxy of past climate changes, trace and major element geochemistry analyses were applied to a 13 m peat core from the crater. Principle component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the main factors that control elemental distribution in the peat and to add interpretative strength to the geochemical behavior of selected major and trace elements. For example, Sc, Al, Cu, and Pb were found to be related to increased erosion of the basin soils, and from this, several periods of significant flux from atmospheric input and/or terrigenous run-off were identified. Geochemically mobile elements during rock weathering and pedogenesis, such as Mg, Ca, and Sr helped to identify the peat ombrotrophic-minerotrophic boundary at ∼1.5 m depth and offered important information about fluxes of these nutrients to the mire and their dynamics within the deposit. Arsenic and V comparisons between the peat record (high concentrations in some peat sections) and in local basin rocks (very low concentrations), suggested the presence of a long range, atmospheric dust source early in the formation of the mire. The Lynch’s Crater peat record presents a continuous record of environmental change in tropical Australia and contributes new understanding to geochemical processes in peatlands.     

A low-resolution spectrophotometer for measuring the integrated colour of galaxies

The spectrophotometer presented here combines the advantage of aperture photometry with spectrophotometry to obtain colours of extended objects over the range of 3500–6000 Å. The spectrophotometric resolution matches the resolution of intermediate-band interference filters of about 140 Å FWHM.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Scavenging of particulate matter in coastal waters

The uptake of a suite of 19 metals from coastal seawaters upon both glass and Teflon surfaces reflected primarily the sorption of particulate matter derived from crustal rock weathering. Uptake for all elements was greater in the light than in the dark. Based upon these and earlier results, a new definition of scavenging for environmental systems is proposed.