Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways

More often than not, assessments of future climate risks are based on future climatic conditions superimposed on current socioeconomic conditions only. The new IPCC-guided alternative global development trends, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), have the potential to enhance the integration of future socioeconomic conditions—in the form of socioeconomic scenarios—within assessments of future climate risks. Being global development pathways, the SSPs lack regional and sectoral details. To increase their suitability in sectoral and/or regional studies and their relevance for local stakeholders, the SSPs have to be extended. We propose here a new method to extend the SSPs that makes use of existing scenario studies, the (re)use of which has been underestimated so far. Our approach lies in a systematic matching of multiple scenario sets that facilitates enrichment of the global SSPs with regional and sectoral information, in terms of both storylines and quantitative projections. We apply this method to develop extended SSPs of human vulnerability in Europe and to quantify them for a number of key indicators at the sub-national level up to 2050, based on the co-use of the matched scenarios’ quantitative outputs. Results show that such a method leads to internally consistent extended SSPs with detailed and highly quantified narratives that are tightly linked to global contexts. This method also provides multiple entry points where the relevance of scenarios to local stakeholders can be tested and strengthened. The extended SSPs can be readily employed to explore future populations’ vulnerability to climate hazards under varying levels of socioeconomic development.     

Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.     

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as “field” or “global” significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.     

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model...     

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin,USA

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.     

Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction

A primary step in the interpretation of speleothem stable isotope records (¹⁸O/¹⁶O and ¹³C/¹²C) is to conduct a comparison with other local palaeoclimate proxies. Here, two new master speleothem δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records (one from eastern North Island, and the other from western/southern South Island, New Zealand) are evaluated against independent precipitation and temperature proxy information to assess their palaeoclimate reconstruction potential. This comparison also resulted in a serendipitous opportunity to reconstruct past circulation using climate regime classification [Lorrey, A.M., Fowler, A.M., Salinger, J., 2007a. Regional climate regime classification as a qualitative tool for interpreting multi-proxy palaeoclimate data spatial patterns: a New Zealand case study. Palaeo-3, in press], specifically because these two regional climate districts are hyper-sensitive to westerly circulation changes, and in many cases, exhibit contrasting climate character in response to circulation anomalies.For both the western South Island and the eastern North Island master speleothem δ¹³C records, variations tracked changes in relative regional precipitation. The δ¹⁸O master speleothem record for both regions varied with temperature change. Both records contain strong regional climate signals that suggest they have good value for palaeoclimate reconstruction. The ensuing attempt at a multi-proxy reconstruction of regional climate regimes from the compiled proxies indicates past circulation in the New Zealand sector has varied considerably during the past four millennia. Centennial-scale circulation changes for the past 4000 years are evident, and are analogous to modern Blocking, Zonal and Trough regime types [Kidson J. W., 2000. An analysis of New Zealand synoptic types and their use in defining weather regimes. International Journal of Climatology 20, 299–316] that characterise changes in present-day (prevailing) westerly circulation. This palaeoclimate reconstruction indicates modern regional climate regime classification can be extended at least as far back as the temporal coverage of the records presented here, and it can likely be improved on with better dating control and the addition of new records with higher resolution. It is also anticipated that future work will expand to include more proxy data from across New Zealand to improve the clarity of past climate regime occurrence for the Late Holocene.     

Interaction of Freshly Precipitated Silica Gel with Aqueous Silicic Acid Solutions under Ambient and Near Neutral pH-conditions: A Detailed Analysis of Linear Rate Law

Interaction of freshly precipitated silica gel with aqueous solutions was studied at laboratory batch experiments under ambient and near neutral pH-conditions. The overall process showed excellent reversibility: gel growth could be considered as an opposite process to dissolution and a linear rate law could be applied to experimental data. Depending on the used rate law form, the resulting rate constants were sensitive to errors in parameters/variables such as gel surface area, equilibrium constants, Si-fluxes, and reaction quotients. The application of an Integrated Exponential Model appeared to be the best approach for dissolution data evaluation. It yielded the rate constants k _dissol ∼ (4.50 ± 0.68) × 10⁻¹² and k _growth ∼ (2.58 ± 0.39) × 10⁻⁹ mol m⁻² s⁻¹ for zero ionic strength. In contrast, a Differential Model gave best results for growth data modeling. It yielded the rate constants k _dissol ∼ (1.14 ± 0.44) × 10⁻¹¹ and k _growth ∼ (6.08 ± 2.37) × 10⁻⁹ mol m⁻² s⁻¹ for higher ionic strength (I ∼ 0.04 to 0.11 mol L⁻¹). The found silica gel solubility at zero ionic strength was somewhat lower than the generally accepted value. Based on the and standard Gibbs free energy of silica gel formation was calculated as and −850,318 ± 20 J mol⁻¹, respectively. Activation energies for silica gel dissolution and growth were determined as and respectively. An universal value for growth of any silica polymorph, is not consistent with the value for silica gel growth, which questions the hypothesis about one unique activated complex controlling the silica polymorph growth.     

Abiotic ammonium formation in the presence of Ni-Fe metals and alloys and its implications for the Hadean nitrogen cycle

Experiments with dinitrogen-, nitrite-, nitrate-containing solutions were conducted without headspace in Ti reactors (200°C), borosilicate septum bottles (70°C) and HDPE tubes (22°C) in the presence of Fe and Ni metal, awaruite (Ni₈₀Fe₂₀) and tetrataenite (Ni₅₀Fe₅₀). In general, metals used in this investigation were more reactive than alloys toward all investigated nitrogen species. Nitrite and nitrate were converted to ammonium more rapidly than dinitrogen, and the reduction process had a strong temperature dependence. We concluded from our experimental observations that Hadean submarine hydrothermal systems could have supplied significant quantities of ammonium for reactions that are generally associated with prebiotic synthesis, especially in localized environments. Several natural meteorites (octahedrites) were found to contain up to 22 ppm N_tot. While the oxidation state of N in the octahedrites was not determined, XPS analysis of metals and alloys used in the study shows that N is likely present as nitride (N^3-). This observation may have implications toward the Hadean environment, since, terrestrial (e.g., oceanic) ammonium production may have been supplemented by reduced nitrogen delivered by metal-rich meteorites. This notion is based on the fact that nitrogen dissolves into metallic melts.     

Consumer Diversity Enhances Secondary Production by Complementarity Effects in Experimental Ciliate Assemblages

Diversity within distinct trophic groups is proposed to increase ecosystem functions such as the productivity of this group and the efficiency of resource use. This proposition has mainly been tested with plant communities, consumer assemblages, and multitrophic microbial assemblages. Very few studies tested how this diversity–productivity relationship varies under different environmental regimes such as disturbances. Coastal benthic assemblages are strongly affected by temporal instability of abiotic conditions. Therefore, we manipulated benthic ciliate species richness in three laboratory experiments with three diversity levels each and analyzed biomass production over time in the presence or absence of a single application of a disturbance (ultraviolet-B [UVB] radiation). In two out of three experiments, a clear positive relationship between diversity and productivity was found, and also the remaining experiment showed a small but nonsignificant effect of diversity. Disturbance significantly reduced the total ciliate biomass, but did not alter the relation between species richness and biomass production. Significant overyielding (i.e., higher production at high diversity) was observed, and additive partitioning indicated that this was caused by niche complementarity between ciliate species. Species-specific contribution to the total biomass varied idiosyncratically with species richness, disturbance, and composition of the community. We thus present evidence for a significant effect of consumer diversity on consumer biomass in a coastal ciliate assemblage, which remained consistent at different disturbance regimes.     

Desert varnish and petroglyphs on sandstone – Geochemical composition and climate changes from Pleistocene to Holocene (Libya)

Desert varnish of pristine sandstone and petroglyph surfaces from Takabart Kabort (Naturalistic Bubaline Art School) and Alamas (Tanzina Art School) can be well classified by their (SiO₂+Al₂O₃):MnO₂, Al₂O₃:SiO₂, and P₂O₅:CaO ratios. Specific ratios are due to the occurrence of clay minerals like illite, kaolinite, smectite, and feldspar, quartz, carbonates like calcite and dolomite, manganese oxyhydroxides, and apatite. Their occurrence corresponds to the local origin and composition of the primary aeolian material.

In general, the analyzed desert varnish shows lamination patterns characterized by alternating MnO₂-rich and -poor layers (25 wt% MnO₂) at rather constant iron oxyhydroxide content (6 wt% Fe₂O₃). Varnish on non-engraved surfaces exhibits three MnO₂-rich layers, whereas varnish-coated petroglyphs reveal minor lamination patterns corresponding to the dating of petroglyphs by rock art. The older Naturalistic Bubaline Art School petroglyphs (about 6–4 ka BP) and the younger Tazina Art School petroglyphs (about 3.8–3 ka BP) contain only two and one MnO₂-rich layer, respectively. It is assumed that the occurrence of such microlaminations is caused by climate changes in North Africa. Three humid periods are discerned from the Terminal Pleistocene to Holocene in the literature. Such periods are suitable to induce manganese accumulation by biotic and abiotic processes. Accordingly, the distinct lamination patterns gained from this study verify the dating of petroglyphs by rock art. From another point of view, classification of the above petroglyphs may be provided by analyses of microlaminations independently on cultural historical aspects.