Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Structural elements in southeastern Quebec,northwestern Appalachians,Canada

An attempt is made to correlate and separate in terms of style and time two contrasting sets of structural elements in the northwestern part of the Appalachian Uplands in the Province of Quebec, Canada. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that a fold system with north-south trending axes is superimposed on a fold system with east-west axes. It is suggested that the two sets of structures represent pulses of one long-continued deformation accompanied by corresponding early and late phases of metamorphism.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurde versucht, in den Appalachen des südöstlichen Teiles der Provinz Quebec, Kanada, zwei ungleichzeitige tektonische Systeme verschiedenen Baustils zu trennen. Die komplexen Kleinstrukturen zeigen, da\ Ost-West streichende Faltenachsen von einer jüngeren Nord-Süd-Faltung überprägt worden sind. Der Autor ist der Meinung, da\ die zwei tektonischen Systeme, die von einer frühen und späten Phase der Metamorphose begleitet werden, den zeitlich getrennten Verformungsstadien einer Orogenese entsprechen.

     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway

Bjune, A. E., Birks, H. J. B., Peglar, S. M. & Odland, A. 2010: Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 674–688. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00158.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Modern pollen–climate data sets consisting of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data (mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) have been developed for Norway based on 191 lakes and 321 lakes. The original 191‐lake data set was designed to optimize the distribution of the lakes sampled along the mean July temperature gradient, thereby fulfilling one of the most critical assumptions of weighted‐averaging regression and calibration and its relative, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression. A further 130 surface samples of comparable taphonomy, taxonomic detail and analyst became available as a result of other projects. These 130 samples, all from new lakes, were added to the 191‐lake data set to create the 321‐lake data set. The collection and construction of these data sets are outlined. Numerical analyses involving generalized linear modelling, constrained ordination techniques, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression, and two different cross‐validation procedures are used to asses the effects of increasing the size of the calibration data set from 191 to 321 lakes. The two data sets are used to reconstruct mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation for a Holocene site in northwest Norway and a Lateglacial site in west‐central Norway. Overall, little is to be gained by increasing the modern data set beyond about 200 lakes in terms of modern model performance statistics, but the down‐core reconstructions show less between‐sample variability and are thus potentially more plausible and realistic when based on the 321‐lake data set.     

X-ray transient sources

The galactic distribution and physical nature of X-ray transient sources is investigated. Two types of transients are considered. The observational data on 41 X-ray transient sources are given, and the average parameters of hard and soft X-ray transients are estimated.     

Rock warming and drying under simulated intertidal conditions,part II: weathering and biological influences on evaporative cooling and near‐surface micro‐climatic conditions as an example of biogeomorphic ecosystem engineering

The way in which rocks and engineering materials heat‐up and dry‐out in the intertidal zone is of relevance to both weathering and ecology. These behaviours can be measured in the laboratory under controlled conditions designed to replicate those occurring in the field. Previous studies have demonstrated differences in thermal behaviours between rock types and through time as a result of soiling in terrestrial environments, but the influence of weathering and colonization on rock behaviours in the intertidal zone has not been previously assessed. We measured the warming and drying of blocks of rock (limestone and granite) and marine concrete during ‘low‐tide’ events simulated in the laboratory, before and after a period of exposure (eight months) on rock platforms in Cornwall, UK. As well as differences between the material types, temperatures of control (unexposed) and field‐exposed blocks differed in the order of 1 to 2 °C. Drying behaviours were also different after field exposure. Differences during the first few hours of exposure to air and heat were attributed to discolouration and albedo effects. Over longer periods of time, changes in the availability of near‐surface pore water as a result of micro‐scale bioerosion of limestone and the development of bio‐chemical crusts on marine concrete [observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM)] are suggested as mechanisms enhancing and reducing, respectively, the efficiency of evaporative cooling. The retention of moisture by epilithic biofilms may also influence thermal and drying behaviours of granite. These observations represent one of the first examples of cross‐scalar biogeomorphic linkages in the intertidal zone. The significance of the results for the subsequent efficiency of weathering, and near‐surface micro‐climatic conditions experienced by colonizing organisms is discussed. The involvement of microorganisms in the creation of more (or less) ecologically stressful conditions through the alteration of substratum geomorphic properties and behaviours is suggested as an example of ‘biogeomorphic ecosystem engineering’. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999     

A ten-to-twelve year variation in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere

This review paper for STIB (Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction and the Biosphere; a proposed core project for IGBP) summarizes several features of a recently discovered 10–12 year oscillation in the atmosphere on the Northern Hemisphere. The oscillation is especially strong in the stratosphere during the warmer half of the year, but it is evident in the stratosphere and troposphere also in winter if the data are grouped according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the wind in the equatorial stratosphere. During the 40 years with data available to describe the oscillation it was phase locked with the 11-year solar cycle.Affiliate Scientist, NCAR.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.