Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador

The existing procedures for the selection of runout model parameters from back-analyses do not allow integrating different types of runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and aimed at overcoming these limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set of parameters that yields the best prediction is selected using ROC metrics and space. The procedure is illustrated with the back-analyses of a rainfall-triggered debris flow that killed 300–500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in 1982. The selected model parameters are used to estimate forward predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed procedure may be useful in the assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides. In turn, this information can be used in the production or updating of land use plans and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban Planning of the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in El Salvador.     

Mushroom production as an alternative for rural development in a forested mountainous area

Wild mushrooms are recognized as important non-wood forest products in mountainous ecosystems, but their real potential for generating rural economies has not been fully evaluated due to the difficulties in obtaining reliable productivity data, minimizing their true potential as contributor to rural economies. Mushroom yield models based on large data series from Pinus forest ecosystems in the region of Catalonia(Spain), combined with data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory allow us to estimate the potential mushroom productivity by forest ecosystems. The results of 24,500 tons/yr of mushrooms of which 16,300 tons are classified as edible and 7,900 tons are commonly marketed demonstrate the importance of mushroom productions in Catalonian pine forests, mostly located in mountainous areas where the development of agricultural activities is limited. Economic mushroom value is estimated at 48 million € for the edible mushroom and 32 million € for those corresponding to marketable yields, confirming the potential of this non-wood forest product. These production results and corresponding economic values provide a basis for the incorporation of wild mushrooms as significant non-wood forest products in the development of forest policies in mountainous areas.     

A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.     

Geophysical exploration on the subsurface geology of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field (NE Iberian Peninsula)

We applied self-potential (SP) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to the exploration of the uppermost part of the substrate geology and shallow structure of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field, part of the European Neogene–Quaternary volcanic province. The aim of the study was to improve knowledge of the shallowest part of the feeding system of these monogenetic volcanoes and of its relationship with the subsurface geology. This study complements previous geophysical studies carried out at a less detailed scale and aimed at identifying deeper structures, and together will constitute the basis to establish volcanic susceptibility in La Garrotxa. SP study complemented previous smaller-scale studies and targeted key areas where ERT could be conducted. The main new results include the generation of resistivity models identifying dykes and faults associated with several monogenetic cones. The combined results confirm that shallow tectonics controlling the distribution of the foci of eruptive activity in this volcanic zone mainly correspond to NNW–SSE and accessorily by NNE–SSW Neogene extensional fissures and faults and concretely show the associated magmatic intrusions. These structures coincide with the deeper ones identified in previous studies, and show that previous Alpine tectonic structures played no apparent role in controlling the loci of this volcanism. Moreover, the results obtained show that the changes in eruption dynamics occurring at different vents located at relatively short distances in this volcanic area are controlled by shallow stratigraphical, structural and hydrogeological differences underneath these monogenetic volcanoes.     

Building a 3D geomodel for water resources management: case study in the Regional Park of the lower courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers (Madrid, Spain)

Water resources management of protected sites requires a powerful tool to analyze the process and changes that are occurring in the environment. This paper describes a 3D geomodel design of the Jarama River Detrital Aquifer located in Madrid (Spain). That hydrogeological unit is included in the “Parque Regional de los Cursos Bajos de los Ríos Manzanares y Jarama” (Regional Park of the Lower Courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers). The goal of this work is to define a method by which a three-dimensional (3D) model can be created with hydrogeologic geometry real of main aquifer, to accomplish an adequate management of the groundwater resources. All data used in this study were integrated in a geographic database: geological and hydrogeological information, geological map (1:25,000), eleven cross-sections, piezometric maps and a digital elevation model. The constructed 3D model of the Jarama Aquifer shows geometric features and spatial distribution and variations of geologic units. Thus, the 3D model allows the assessment of volumes of each unit, the depth and thickness variations of the main aquifer, and the spatial and temporal variations of water tables. From the 3D model, the most suitable areas (in terms of groundwater protection) for managed recharge and mining works have been identified.     

Magnetic susceptibility and electrical conductivity as a proxy for evaluating soil contaminated with arsenic,cadmium and lead in a metallurgical area in the San Luis Potosi State,Mexico

A total of 113 samples of waste and soil were collected from a site in the state of San Luis Potosi, Mexico, that was occupied for several years by the metallurgical industry. Specific magnetic susceptibility (MS), electrical conductivity (EC) and pH were determined, as well as the total and available concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) such as As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn, which may cause a health risk for humans, animals and ecosystems, and the concentrations of major ions in aqueous extracts of soils and wastes. The solid phases of the samples were also characterized. The results revealed that the soils and wastes exhibited elevated values of PTEs, MS and EC. For soils these values decreased with increasing distance from the waste storage sites. The MS values were elevated primarily due to the presence of Fe-oxyhydroxides, such as magnetite, hematite and goethite, which contain PTEs in their structure leading to a high correlation between the value of MS and the As, Cd, Fe and Pb contents (r = 0.57–0.91) as well as between the PTEs values (r = 0.68–0.92). The elevated EC values measured in the metallurgical wastes were the result of presence of the sulfate minerals of Ca, Mg and Fe. The pollution index, which indicates the levels of simultaneous toxicity from elements such as As, Cd and Pb, was determined, with extreme hazard zones corresponding to areas that exhibit high MS values (0.91 correlation). In conclusion, MS measurements can be used as an indirect indicator to evaluate the PTE contamination in metallurgical areas, and EC measurements can aid in the identification of pollution sources.     

Monitoring of heat transmission from buildings into geological environment and evaluation of soil deformation consequences in foundation engineering

In engineering geology a number of factors affecting foundation conditions are taken into consideration during engineering-geological investigations. This article deals with the factor of heat sourced from a structure (brick kiln) as a restrictive factor in foundation engineering in clay soils and introduces a documentation of soil deformation observations as an impact of the heat transmission into the geological environment. It was carried out in Southern Moravia in the Czech Republic, where the dominant foundation soils are Neogeneous clays where differential settlements of a tunnel kiln structure occurred as a result of ignoring the boundary conditions of temperature changes in the soil environment. The brick kilns caused heterogeneous spatial changes in the subsoil temperatures. This consequently resulted in differential settlements due to temperature changes originating from the kilns. The differential settlements reached as much as 150 mm. The major objective of the article is to highlight the importance of the heat transmission from buildings into the geological environment as a factor which should be considered in engineering geology and its application in planning. A new procedure for reducing or elimination of ground movements sourced from underlying clayey soils depending on the heat changes was also suggested in this context.     

3D alluvial aquifer reconstruction in polluted areas by means of GPR (Sabiñánigo,N Spain)

Assumptions of simple geometries for alluvial deposits (related to main rivers) can preclude determination of complexities that are revealed as fundamental controls in underground flow. Although subhorizontal contacts between alluvial and substratum materials are expected, previous sedimentary or erosional processes can result in irregular geometries, only accessible through detailed analysis. The studied case presents the 3D reconstruction of a Quaternary terrace in the proximities of Sabiñánigo (Southern Pyrenees, Northeastern Spain), lying on homogeneous Eocene marls. The studied area is located in an industrialized area supporting strongly pollutant chemical industry (chlorinated pesticides) for the past 50 years. The objective of the study was to constrain the groundwater pathway along the area to subsequently analyze leakage of chemicals to the water table. In order to reveal preferred flow paths, a detailed characterization of the internal structure of the alluvial deposits (0.5–13 m thick) and their relations with the Tertiary substratum was carried out by means of ground penetrating radar (GPR, 50 and 100 MHz antennas). The obtained models permit identifying several topographic highs in the alluvial/substratum contact, determining preferred pathways in water flow, favoring particular conditions associated with low levels of the water table. The presented results support the interest of application of GPR surveys in order to characterize the groundwater pathways in expected homogeneous areas and their importance in order to establish the contaminant surveillance network.     

A software solution for point counting. Petrographic thin section analysis as a case study

In the field of geology, as in many other fields, a common problem is the analysis of 2D sections. An example of this is the petrographic study of rock samples, i.e., the quantification of its mineral components and the percentages of each phase present in it. Conventionally, this quantification has been determined by point counting performed on thin sections. Although point counting is very time consuming, it is of common use in several domains including geology, biology, medicine, and materials sciences, among others. Point counting in thin sections is normally conducted through mechanical or electromechanical devices attached to a microscope; such devices are very expensive, offer limited functionality, and are very time consuming. In this contribution, we introduce an interactive visualization application called Rock.AR that reduces the amount of time required to apply this technique and simplify its work flow. It provides visual tools like distortion techniques, overview + detail, and statistics to assist the technique. A comparison between this application and similar tools through users' experiences is provided. We compare the time it takes to complete a session of point counting and the tools' usability.     

Molecular gas in young planetary nebulae

We review our recent results concerning the molecular gas content of young planetary nebulae NGC 2346, M 2–9, and NGC 6720 (the Ring Nebula in Lyra).Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.