The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Numerical continuation of families of frozen orbits in the zonal problem of artificial satellite theory

In the zonal problem of a satellite around the Earth, we continue numerically natural families of periodic orbits with the polar component of the angular momentum as the parameter. We found three families; two of them are made of orbits with linear stability while the third one is made of unstable orbits. Except in a neighborhood of the critical inclination, the stable periodic (or frozen) orbits have very small eccentricities even for large inclinations.     

Classical T Tauri Stars and Substellar Analogs

We propose a spectroscopic criterion based on Hα equivalent width and spectral type to classify classical T Tauri stars and substellar analogs. We argue that accreting objects can be identified from low-resolution optical spectroscopy, when their Hα flux is stronger than the saturation limit at Log {Lum(Hα)/Lum(bol)} = ?3.3. Additional criteria, such as the relation between HeI5876 or HeI6678 and Hα, or the ratios between the components of the CaII infrared triplet, are also discussed. We have tested the reliability of these criteria by applying them to several objects with masses in the range 0.11–0.025 M_⊙, which belong to nearby star forming regions and the TW Hya association.     

Behaviour of the SMF method for the numerical integration of satellite orbits

The SMF algorithms were recently developed by the authors as a multistep generalization of the ScheifeleG-functions one-step method. Like the last, the proposed codes integrate harmonic oscillations without truncation error and the perturbing parameter appears as a factor of that error when integrating perturbed oscillations. Therefore they seemed to be convenient for the accurate integration of orbital problems after the application of linearizing transformations, such as KS or BF. In this paper we present several numerical experiments concerning the propagation of Earth satellite orbits, that illustrate the performance of the the SMF method. In general, it provides greater accuracy than the usual standard algorithms for similar computational cost.     

Improved Approximated Solutions to the Nonlinear Debye Potential

The shielding effect of plasma on the electrostatic potential due to a central nucleus is studied. The potential is determined by the Poisson equation with Boltzmann factor for the charge density of ions. The aim of this work is to find approximated analytical solutions, without the usual linearization hypothesis, by means of the technique of quasifractional approximants in two points. In a previous work (Martín and Pérez, 1994) a quasifractional fractional approximation was obtained, but the coefficients were found by means of the numerical solution of the differential equation. Now we find a complete analytical expression. The approximant found is highly precise in the range of validity of the physical model used.     

Space Charge Potentials in Cylindrical Geometries Including Temperature Effects

The analysis of space-charge in cylindrical geometries has been performed using kinetic theory. The current collected by central electrodes inmersed in plasmas with a discriminant grid has been determined through the Poisson equation and truncated Maxwellian distribution functions for the ions. The electrons are assumed to be repelled by the entrance grid. The non-linear adimensional equations have been solved approximately using linear expansion around the point with zero potential.