Latitudinal dependence of signal-to-noise patterns from two general circulation models with CO2 forcing

 Detection of an enhanced greenhouse effect on climate depends on recognition of a signal of change amidst the combined noise of climatic variability and uncertainty in the nature of the signal (functional response to changing CO₂). Using two different GCMs (one with a coupled dynamic upper ocean) and an ensemble of 20 equilibrium experiments with CO₂ ranging from 100 to 3500 ppm, we find that that two measures of signal-to-noise (S/N) for the response of surface temperature to CO₂ forcing are larger over tropical and subtropical oceans than over low-latitude landmasses and larger than at higher latitudes generally. One S/N measure has the noise based solely on inherent model variability, while the other S/N measure includes both this variability and a measure of the uncertainty in the functional nature of the signal. Although the experiments were not for transient forcing and sulphate aerosols and other potentially important forcings (e.g., ozone or solar variability) were not considered, the results suggest that the effects of enhanced greenhouse climate may be detected more readily in surface temperatures from low-latitude oceanic regions than from global or zonal temperature averages. Received: 27 June 1995/Accepted: 28 October 1996     

Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD

Background

Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions.

Results

We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development) and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development). Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management.

Conclusions

The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.     

Finiteness of spatial central configurations in the five-body problem

We strengthen a generic finiteness result due to Moeckel by showing that the number of spatial central configurations of the Newtonian five-body problem with positive masses is finite, apart from some explicitly given special cases of mass values.     

Safeguarding coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia) against climate change: realizable local and global actions

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic (global) climate change are widely known. Less well considered is the contributing role of conditions local to the reef, in particular reef water quality, in co-determining the physiological tolerance of corals to increasing sea temperatures and declining pH. Here, the modelled benefit of reduced exposure to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in terrestrial runoff, which raises the thermal tolerance of coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia), is considered alongside alternative future warming scenarios. The simulations highlight that an 80% reduction in DIN ‘buys’ an additional ~50–60?years of reef-building capacity for No Mitigation (‘business-as-usual’) bleaching projections. Moreover, the integrated management benefits provided by: (i) local reductions of ~50% in DIN contained in river loads, and (ii) global stabilisation of atmospheric CO₂ below 450?ppm can help ensure the persistence of hard-coral-dominated reefscapes beyond 2100. The simulations reinforce the message that beyond the global imperative to mitigate future atmospheric CO₂ emissions there still remains the need for effective local management actions that enhance the resistance and resilience of coral reef communities to the impacts of climate change.     

n-Paraffins in the sediments and in situ fossils of the Lake Turkana Basin,Kenya

Residual hydrocarbons were extracted from a number of vertebrate fossils and their surrounding sediments collected at six sites in the Plio-Pleistocene sediments of paleo-Lake Turkana in northern Kenya. Gas chromatographic separation of these alkane fractions showed three recognizable suites of hydrocarbons, a C-15 to C-19 group derived from algae, a C-20 to C-30 group with no odd/ even preference derived from microbial action on soil organics, and a C-21 to C-35 group with high odd/even preference derived from plant waxes. No alkanes identifiable as being derived from the original animal fats were observed. The plant wax alkanes and microbial hydrocarbons were nearly ubiquitous, in sands, silts, clays and the fossils. The algal hydrocarbons, on the other hand, were found only in the sands and silts. There were no consistent differences between the hydrocarbon content of the fossils and the surrounding sediments. There were great local variations in alkane distribution, but no patterns were discernible. The total hydrocarbon content of these arid region sediments is almost vanishingly small compared to sediments in more temperate climates.     

An analysis of P-wave amplitudes recorded by seismological stations in the USSR

Summary. Short period P -wave amplitudes at Soviet seismic stations are analysed to determine an amplitude–distance curve in the range 0°–180° from the USSR. Station amplitude terms, corrected for crustal amplification effects, are determined from seismic sources located between 30° and 90°. A relationship between these station terms and regional P_n wave speed and regional heat flow is determined and is found to be in close agreement with similar observations in North America. Station amplitude terms were found to be reasonably uniform across the continental portion of the USSR but the Baikal Rift valley is characterized by very low P -wave amplitudes and is the most significant feature discemible from the P -wave amplitude terms.     

Evaluation of a passive gap damper to control displacements in a shaking test of a seismically isolated three‐story frame

Recent studies have indicated uncertainty about the performance limit states of seismically isolated buildings in very large earthquakes, especially if the isolator displacement demands exceed the seismic gap and induce pounding. Previous research has shown the benefit of providing phased supplemental damping that does not affect the isolation system response in a design event. A phased passive control device, or gap damper, was designed, fabricated, and experimentally evaluated during shake table testing of a quarter scale base‐isolated three‐story steel frame building. Identical input motions were applied to system configurations without a gap damper and with a gap damper, to directly assess the influence of the gap damper on displacement and acceleration demands. The gap damper was observed to reduce displacement demands by up to 15% relative to the isolated system without the gap damper. Superstructure floor accelerations increased substantially because of damper activation, but were limited to a peak of about 1.18 g. The gap damper reduces displacement most effectively if the ground motion contains one or more of the following characteristics: the spectral displacement increases with increasing period near the effective period of the isolation system, the motion is dominated by a single large pulse rather than multiple cycles at a consistent intensity, and the motion has a dominant component aligned with a major axis of the structure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A late Ordovician (Hirnantian) karstic surface in a submarine channel,recording glacio‐eustatic sea‐level changes: Meifod,central Wales

The growth and decay of the end‐Ordovician Gondwanan glaciation is globally reflected by facies changes in sedimentary sequences, which record a major eustatic fall and subsequent rise in the Hirnantian Stage at the end of the Ordovician. However, there are different reported estimates of the magnitude and pattern of sea‐level change. Particularly good evidence for end‐Ordovician sea‐level change comes from a sequence at Meifod in central Wales, which has a karstified limestone unit within a channel incised into marine shelf sediments. Pre‐glacial (Rawtheyan) mudstones have a diverse fauna suggesting a mid‐to‐deep‐shelf water depth of c. 60 m. The channel, 20 m deep, was incised into these mudstones and partially filled with a mixture of fine sand and detrital carbonate. The taphonomy of bioclasts and intraclasts indicates that many had a long residence time on the sea floor or suffered diagenesis after shallow burial before being resedimented into the channel. The presence of carbonates on the Welsh shelf is atypical and they are interpreted as having accumulated as patches during a minor regression prior to the main glacio‐eustatic fall. Comparison of the carbon stable‐isotopic values of the bioclast material with the global isotopic record confirms that most of the material is of Rawtheyan age, but that some is Hirnantian. The resedimented carbonates lithified rapidly and formed a limestone, several metres thick, in the deepest parts of the channel. As sea‐level fell, this limestone was exposed and eroded into karstic domes and pillars with a relief of over 2 m. The overall, glacio‐eustatic, sea‐level fall is estimated to be in excess of 80 m. A succeeding sea‐level rise estimated to be 40–50 m is recorded in the laminated crust that mantles the karstic domes and pillars. The crust is formed of encrusting bryozoans, associated cystoids, crinoid holdfasts and clusters of the brachiopod Paromalomena, which is normally associated with mid‐shelf environments. Fine sands buried the karst topography and accumulated to fill the channel. In the sandstones at the base of the channel there is a Hirnantia fauna, while in the sandstones high in the channel‐sequence there is cross‐stratification characteristic of mid‐shoreface environments. This would indicate a fall of sea‐level of c. 30 m. The subsequent major transgression marking the end of the glaciation is not recorded at the Meifod locality, but nearby exposures of mudstones suggest a return to mid‐to‐deep‐shelf environments, similar to those that prevailed before the Hirnantian regression. The Meifod sequence provides strong evidence for the magnitude of the Hirnantian sea‐level changes and by implication confirm larger estimates for the size of the ice sheets. Smaller oscillations in relative sea‐level seen at Meifod may be local phenomena or may reflect eustatic changes that have not been widely reported elsewhere. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.