Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment

Climate change in the twenty-first century will strongly affect the processes that define natural and human systems. The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment (WACCIA) was intended to identify the nature and effects of climate change on natural and human resources in Washington State over the next century. The assessment focused on eight sectors that were identified as being potentially most climate sensitive: agriculture, energy, salmon, urban stormwater infrastructure, forests, human health, coasts, and water resources. Most of these sectors are sensitive in one way or another to water availability. While water is generally abundant in the state under current climate conditions, its availability is highly variable in space and time, and these variations are expected to change as the climate warms. Here we summarize the results of the WACCIA and identify uncertainties and common mechanisms that relate many of the impacts. We also address cross-sectoral sensitivities, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies.     

Deterministic vs. probabilistic earthquake hazards and risks

Both probabilistic and deterministic methods have a role in seismic hazard and risk analyses performed for decision-making purposes. These two methods can complement one another to provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. One method will have priority over the other, depending on how quantitative are the decisions to be made, depending on the seismic environment, and depending on the scope of the project (single site or a region). In many applications a recursive analysis, where deterministic interpretations are triggered by probabilistic results and vice versa, will give the greatest insight and allow the most informed decisions to be made.     

Which way do you lean? Using slope aspect variations to understand Critical Zone processes and feedbacks

Soil‐mantled pole‐facing hillslopes on Earth tend to be steeper, wetter, and have more vegetation cover compared with adjacent equator‐facing hillslopes. These and other slope aspect controls are often the consequence of feedbacks among hydrologic, ecologic, pedogenic, and geomorphic processes triggered by spatial variations in mean annual insolation. In this paper we review the state of knowledge on slope aspect controls of Critical Zone (CZ) processes using the latitudinal and elevational dependence of topographic asymmetry as a motivating observation. At relatively low latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to be steeper. At higher latitudes and elevations this pattern reverses. We reproduce this pattern using an empirical model based on parsimonious functions of latitude, an aridity index, mean‐annual temperature, and slope gradient. Using this empirical model and the literature as guides, we present a conceptual model for the slope‐aspect‐driven CZ feedbacks that generate asymmetry in water‐limited and temperature‐limited end‐member cases. In this conceptual model the dominant factor driving slope aspect differences at relatively low latitudes and elevations is the difference in mean‐annual soil moisture. The dominant factor at higher latitudes and elevations is temperature limitation on vegetation growth. In water‐limited cases, we propose that higher mean‐annual soil moisture on pole‐facing hillslopes drives higher soil production rates, higher water storage potential, more vegetation cover, faster dust deposition, and lower erosional efficiency in a positive feedback. At higher latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to have less vegetation cover, greater erosional efficiency, and gentler slopes, thus reversing the pattern of asymmetry found at lower latitudes and elevations. Our conceptual model emphasizes the linkages among short‐ and long‐timescale processes and across CZ sub‐disciplines; it also points to opportunities to further understand how CZ processes interact. We also demonstrate the importance of paleoclimatic conditions and non‐climatic factors in influencing slope aspect variations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating spatially heterogeneous infiltration capacity into hydrologic models with applications for simulating post‐wildfire debris flow initiation

Soils in post‐wildfire environments are often characterized by a low infiltration capacity with a high degree of spatial heterogeneity relative to unburned areas. Debris flows are frequently initiated by run‐off in recently burned steeplands, making it critical to develop and test methods for incorporating spatial variability in infiltration capacity into hydrologic models. We use Monte Carlo simulations of run‐off generation over a soil with a spatially heterogenous saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) to derive an expression for an aerially averaged saturated hydraulic conductivity ( ) that depends on the rainfall rate, the statistical properties of K_s, and the spatial correlation length scale associated with K_s. The proposed method for determining is tested by simulating run‐off on synthetic topography over a wide range of spatial scales. Results provide a simplified expression for an effective saturated hydraulic conductivity that can be used to relate a distribution of small‐scale K_s measurements to infiltration and run‐off generation over larger spatial scales. Finally, we use a hydrologic model based on to simulate run‐off and debris flow initiation at a recently burned catchment in the Santa Ana Mountains, CA, USA, and compare results to those obtained using an infiltration model based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number.     

X-ray probes of magnetospheric interactions with Jupiter's auroral zones, the Galilean satellites, and the Io plasma torus

Remote observations with the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the XMM-Newton Observatory have shown that the jovian system is a source of X-rays with a rich and complicated structure. The planet's polar auroral zones and its disk are both powerful sources of X-ray emission. Chandra observations revealed X-ray emission from the Io plasma torus and from the Galilean moons Io, Europa, and possibly Ganymede. The emission from the moons is due to bombardment of their surfaces by highly energetic magnetospheric protons, and oxygen and sulfur ions. These ions excite atoms in their surfaces leading to fluorescent X-ray emission lines. These lines are produced against an intense background continuum, including bremsstrahlung radiation from surface interactions of primary magnetospheric and secondary electrons. Although the X-ray emission from the Galilean moons is faint when observed from Earth orbit, an imaging X-ray spectrometer in orbit around one or more of these moons, operating from 200 eV to 8 keV with 150 eV energy resolution, would provide a detailed mapping of the elemental composition in their surfaces. Surface resolution of 40 m for small features could be achieved in a 100-km orbit around one moon while also remotely imaging surfaces of other moons and Jupiter's upper atmosphere at maximum regional resolutions of hundreds of kilometers. Due to its relatively more benign magnetospheric radiation environment, its intrinsic interest as the largest moon in the Solar System, and its mini-magnetosphere, Ganymede would be the ideal orbital location for long-term observational studies of the jovian system. Here we describe the physical processes leading to X-ray emission from the surfaces of Jupiter's moons and the properties required for the technique of imaging X-ray spectroscopy to map the elemental composition of their surfaces, as well as studies of the X-ray emission from the planet's aurora and disk and from the Io plasma torus.     

Analysis of recharge-induced geochemical change in a contaminated aquifer

Recharge events that deliver electron acceptors such as O2, NO3, SO4, and Fe3+ to anaerobic, contaminated aquifers are likely important for natural attenuation processes. However, the specific influence of recharge on (bio)geochemical processes in ground water systems is not well understood. The impact of a moderate-sized recharge event on ground water chemistry was evaluated at a shallow, sandy aquifer contaminated with waste fuels and chlorinated solvents. Multivariate statistical analyses coupled with three-dimensional visualization were used to analyze ground water chemistry data (including redox indicators, major ions, and physical parameters) to reveal associations between chemical parameters and to infer processes within the ground water plume. Factor analysis indicated that dominant chemical associations and their interpreted processes (anaerobic and aerobic microbial processes, mineral precipitation/dissolution, and temperature effects) did not change significantly after the spring recharge event of 2000. However, the relative importance of each of these processes within the plume changed. After the recharge event, the overall importance of aerobic processes increased from the fourth to the second most important factor, representing the variability within the data set. The anaerobic signatures became more complex, suggesting that zones with multiple terminal electron-accepting processes (TEAPs) likely occur in the same water mass. Three-dimensional visualization of well clusters showed that water samples with similar chemical associations occurred in distinct water masses within the aquifer. Water mass distinctions were not based on dominant TEAPs, suggesting that the recharge effects on TEAPs occurred primarily at the interface between infiltrating recharge water and the aquifer.     

Young runoff fractions control streamwater age and solute concentration dynamics

We introduce a new representation of coupled solute and water age dynamics at the catchment scale, which shows how the contributions of young runoff waters can be directly referenced to observed water quality patterns. The methodology stems from recent trends in hydrologic transport that acknowledge the dynamic nature of streamflow age and explores the use of water age fractions as an alternative to the mean age. The approach uses a travel time‐based transport model to compute the fractions of streamflow that are younger than some thresholds (e.g., younger than a few weeks) and compares them to observed solute concentration patterns. The method is here validated with data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest during spring 2008, where we show that the presence of water younger than roughly 2 weeks, tracked using a hydrologic transport model and deuterium measurements, mimics the variation in dissolved silicon concentrations. Our approach suggests that an age–discharge relationship can be coupled to classic concentration–discharge relationship, to identify the links between transport timescales and solute concentration. Our results highlight that the younger streamflow components can be crucial for determining water quality variations and for characterizing the dominant hydrologic transport dynamics.