Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.     

Seasonal Diet Shifts and Overlap Between Two Sympatric Catfishes in an Estuarine Nursery

This study describes the seasonal feeding habits of different size classes of Cathorops spixii and Cathorops agassizii along an estuarine ecocline and the food overlap when different size classes occur together. These species were essentially zoobenthivorous, feeding mainly on Polychaeta Nereis sp., Copepoda Pseudodiaptomus acutus, Ostracoda Asterope sp., Gastropoda: Littorinidae, and Bivalvia Mytilus sp. and Anomalocardia brasiliana. However, during their life cycle and between different habitats and seasons, their trophic guild can change to zooplanktivore. The competition for resources was observed among C. spixii and C. agassizii, but was significantly reduced due to the seasonal diference in habitat use by different ontogenetic phases in the main channel of the estuary. The food niche separation was strongly influenced by environmental fluctuations, principally of salinity, resulting from rainfall and river inflow. High abundance of some preys, such as P. acutus (all estuary), Asterope sp. (upper and middle estuary), and Littorinidae (upper and lower estuary), could influence the significant diet overlap, principally during the rainy season, and call for more detailed studies of the benthic community structure. Moreover, dietary overlap was observed mainly between smaller sizes (intraspecific and/or interspecific) or between corresponding ontogenetic phases (interspecific), suggesting some differentiation in the diet in relation to the size class. Differences in prey type and size between the different ontogenetic phases of these ariids, principally among juveniles and adults, could be related to the size of the mouth, since adults are able to successfully capture larger preys or larger quantities of particular items.     

Groundwater chemistry of strike slip faulted aquifers: the case study of Wadi Zerka Ma’in aquifers, north east of the Dead Sea

Wadi Zerka Ma’in catchment area is located to the north east of the Dead Sea. It has two types of aquifers: (a) an upper unconfined aquifer and (b) a lower confined aquifer. The two aquifers are separated by a marl aquiclude. A major strike slip fault passes perpendicularly through the two aquifers and the aquiclude layer with embedded normal faults. The aim of the study was to specify the effect of the major strike slip fault on the groundwater chemistry. The spatial variability of the hydrochemical compositions and physiochemical parameters of the groundwater were investigated. It was found that the embedded normal faults, of the strike slip fault, form conduits that allow groundwater to flow from the lower aquifer to the upper aquifer, resulting in mixed groundwater. The ratio of mixing was estimated to be 94 % groundwater from the upper aquifer and 6 % from the lower aquifer. Since groundwater in the lower aquifer is around three times more saline than the upper aquifer, water mixing into the upper water aquifer generates a salinity hazard.     

Reionization and the Cosmic Dawn with the Square Kilometre Array

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will have a low frequency component (SKA-low) which has as one of its main science goals the study of the redshifted 21 cm line from the earliest phases of star and galaxy formation in the Universe. This 21 cm signal provides a new and unique window both on the time of the formation of the first stars and accreting black holes and the subsequent period of substantial ionization of the intergalactic medium. The signal will teach us fundamental new things about the earliest phases of structure formation, cosmology and even has the potential to lead to the discovery of new physical phenomena. Here we present a white paper with an overview of the science questions that SKA-low can address, how we plan to tackle these questions and what this implies for the basic design of the telescope.     

Using semivariogram parameter uncertainty in hydrogeological applications

Geostatistical estimation (kriging) and geostatistical simulation are routinely used in ground water hydrology for optimal spatial interpolation and Monte Carlo risk assessment, respectively. Both techniques are based on a model of spatial variability (semivariogram or covariance) that generally is not known but must be inferred from the experimental data. Where the number of experimental data is small (say, several tens), as is not unusual in ground water hydrology, the model fitted to the empirical semivariogram entails considerable uncertainty. If all the practical results are based on this unique fitted model, the final results will be biased. We propose that, instead of using a unique semivariogram model, the full range of models that are inside a given confidence region should be used, and the weight that each semivariogram model has on the final result should depend on its plausibility. The first task, then, is to evaluate the uncertainty of the model, which can be efficiently done by using maximum likelihood inference. The second task is to use the range of plausible models in applications and to show the effect observed on the final results. This procedure is put forth here with kriging and simulation applications, where the uncertainty in semivariogram parameters is propagated into the final results (e.g., the prediction of ground water head). A case study using log-transmissivity data from the Vega de Granada aquifer, in southern Spain, is given to illustrate the methodology.     

Algal pigment patterns and phytoplankton assemblages in different water masses of the Río de la Plata maritime front

The composition of phytoplankton assemblages were studied in three sections across the continental shelf between the Río de la Plata and the oceanic waters of the Subtropical Convergence, during late spring. Algal communities were examined using microscopy and HPLC-derived pigment concentrations. The CHEMTAX program was used to estimate the chlorophyll a (chl a) biomass of different algal classes. Trends in pigment ratios due to phytoplankton photo-adaptation and photo-acclimation were also examined. In order to accommodate the natural diversity of phytoplankton assemblages the original data have been split to represent five ecosystems. In addition, the pigment data for the Brazil Current ecosystem has been split by sample depth.     

A review of research on seismic behaviour of irregular building structures since 2002

The paper presents an overview of the progress in research regarding seismic response of plan and vertically irregular building structures. Three areas of research are surveyed. The first is the study of the effects of plan-irregularity by means of single-storey and multi-storey building models. The second area encompasses passive control as a strategy to mitigate torsional effects, by means of base isolation and other types of devices. Lastly, the third area concerns vertically irregular structures and setback buildings. Although fewer papers have been published in this last area with respect to the former ones, this state-of-the-art reports extensively on research efforts and progress into the seismic behaviour of irregular buildings in elevation to show the growing interest among specialists in the field.     

The relationship between reference canopy conductance and simplified hydraulic architecture

Terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by vascular plants that form a mosaic of hydraulic conduits to water movement from the soil to the atmosphere. Together with canopy leaf area, canopy stomatal conductance regulates plant water use and thereby photosynthesis and growth. Although stomatal conductance is coordinated with plant hydraulic conductance, governing relationships across species has not yet been formulated at a practical level that can be employed in large-scale models. Here, combinations of published conductance measurements obtained with several methodologies across boreal to tropical climates were used to explore relationships between canopy conductance rates and hydraulic constraints. A parsimonious hydraulic model requiring sapwood-to-leaf area ratio and canopy height generated acceptable agreement with measurements across a range of biomes (r²=0.75)$(r^2=0.75)$. The results suggest that, at long time scales, the functional convergence among ecosystems in the relationship between water-use and hydraulic architecture eclipses inter-specific variation in physiology and anatomy of the transport system. Prognostic applicability of this model requires independent knowledge of sapwood-to-leaf area. In this study, we did not find a strong relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and physical or climatic variables that are readily determinable at coarse scales, though the results suggest that climate may have a mediating influence on the relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and height. Within temperate forests, canopy height alone explained a large amount of the variance in reference canopy conductance (r²=0.68)$(r^2=0.68)$ and this relationship may be more immediately applicable in the terrestrial ecosystem models.     

Soil erosion rates in rangelands of northeastern Patagonia: A dendrogeomorphological analysis using exposed shrub roots

Soil erosion is an important process of land degradation in many rangelands and a significant driver of desertification in the world's drylands. Dendrogeomorphology is an alternative to traditional methods for determining soil erosion rate. Specifically, the vertical distance between the upper portion of exposed roots and the actual soil surface can be used as a bioindicator of erosion since plant establishment. In this study, we determined (i) the soil erosion rate from exposed roots of the dwarf shrub Margyricarpus pinnatus [Lam.] Kuntze in two ecological sites in the northeastern rangelands of Patagonia and (ii) the relationship between shrub age and upper root diameter. We selected two ecological sites, a pediment-like plateau and a flank pediment, where the dominant soils were Xeric Haplocalcids and Xeric Calciargids, respectively. The soil erosion rates in the pediment-like plateau and in the flank pediment were 2.4 and 3.1 mm yr^− 1, respectively. Data clearly indicate a high rate of soil erosion during the mean 8-year life span of the dwarf shrubs in degraded patches, which represent ~ 10% of surface cover in the study area. Simple linear regression analysis yielded a highly significant predictive model for age estimation of M. pinnatus plants using the upper root diameter as a predictor variable. The measurement of ground lowering against datable exposed roots represents a simple method for the determination of soil erosion rates. In combination with other soil surface features, it was used to infer the episodic nature of soil erosion. This approach could be particularly useful for monitoring the effects of land management practices on recent soil erosion and for the establishment of records in regions where historical data regarding this process are scarce or absent.