Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting: Challenges and Solutions

A new method for real-time tsunami forecasting will provide NOAAs Tsunami Warning Centers with forecast guidance tools during an actual tsunami event. PMEL has developed the methodology of combining real-time data from tsunameters with numerical model estimates to provide site- and event-specific forecasts for tsunamis in real time. An overview of the technique and testing of this methodology is presented.     

A Late glacial and Holocene diatom record from Clettnadal, Shetland Islands, northern Scotland

The study was undertaken as part of a wider palaeoecological investigation of Late glacial and Holocene lake sediments from a site on the exposed Atlantic coast of the Shetland Islands. The diatom data presented here define a sequence of assemblages, commencing at c. 15.8 cal ka BP, which reflects lithological variation in the section, in particular the Late glacial alternation of minerogenic and more organic horizons. Cliff retreat caused drainage of the lake sometime after c. 4.0 cal ka BP. Almost all taxa recorded are small benthic and tychoplanktonic diatoms: Fragilaria (sensu lato), Achnanthes (s.l.) and some Navicula spp. predominate in the Late glacial. Different benthos become dominant in the Holocene, but no plankton developed. Stauroforma was the commonest genus present, and results indicate a relationship between the occurrence of two types, Stauroforma A and Stauroforma B, and the severity of prevailing environmental conditions. The lithology and associated assemblages suggest a sequence including the classic north European Bølling and Allerød' warmer periods, followed by the Loch Lomond Stadial. Subsequently, the temporal diatom succession resembles the pattern described in modern linear transects across the circumpolar treeline in north America and Asia, both in type of assemblage and some dominant species.     

Deep sea diapirs and bottom simulating reflector in Fairway Basin (SW Pacific)

A recent swath-bathymetry and geophysical survey of the R/V L'Atalante in the Fairway Basin between Australia and New Caledonia allowed to confirm the Cretaceous age of the creation of the basin by continental stretching. This first stage of opening of the Fairway Basin is associated with the deposition of a continuous salt/mud layer feeding today numerous diapirs, some of them piercing the 3 to 4 km thick sedimentary cover and reaching the seafloor. In close link with this salt/mud layer a Bottom Simulating Reflector indicator of gas hydrates level occupies a 70000 km² surface at about 500 to 600 m-depth beneath the sea floor. The coexistence of both BSR and diapirs suggests a thermogenic better than biogenic origin for the gas hydrates horizon.     

Summer algal blooms in a coastal ecosystem: the role of atmospheric deposition versus entrainment fluxes

The nitrogen inputs from atmospheric deposition and bottom water entrainment to the surface layer were modelled in the summer period (May–September) over a 11-year period (1989–1999) and compared to investigate the significance of these fluxes for generating blooms in the Kattegat. In the summer periods the average atmospheric deposition was 2.81 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ compared to average entrainment fluxes of 5.42 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹, 1.21 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ and 1.15 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ for the northern, central and southern part of the Kattegat, respectively. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition alone could not sustain biomass increases associated with observed blooms and entrainment fluxes dominated the high nitrogen inputs to the surface layer. The potential for a bloom through growth was typically obtained after several days of high nitrogen inputs from entrainment in the frontal area of the northern Kattegat and to some extent from atmospheric deposition. The modelled nitrogen input in this area could account directly for 30% of the observed blooms in the Northern sub-basin, and through advective transport 24% and 19% of the observed blooms in the central and southern Kattegat. The direct nitrogen inputs through atmospheric deposition and entrainment to the central and southern sub-basins were small and could not be linked to any bloom observation.     

Persistently declining oxygen levels in the interior waters of the eastern subarctic Pacific

Fifty years of measurements at Ocean Station Papa (OSP, 50°N, 145°W) show trends in the interior waters of the subarctic Pacific that are both impacted by short term (few years to bi-decadal) atmospheric or ocean circulation oscillations and by persistent climate trends. Between 1956 and 2006, waters below the ocean mixed layer to a depth of at least 1000 m have been warming and losing oxygen. On density surfaces found in the depth range 100-400 m (σ_θ = 26.3-27.0), the ocean is warming at 0.005-0.012 °C y⁻¹, whereas oxygen is declining at 0.39-0.70 μmol kg⁻¹ y⁻¹ or at an integrated rate of 123 mmol m⁻² y⁻¹ (decrease of 22% over 50 years). During this time, the hypoxic boundary (defined as 60 μmol O₂ kg⁻¹) has shoaled from ∼400 to 300 m. In the Alaska Gyre, the 26.2 isopycnal occasionally ventilates, whereas at OSP 26.0σ_θ has not been seen at the ocean surface since 1971 as the upper ocean continues to stratify. To interpret the 50 year record at OSP, the isopycnal transport of oxygenated waters within the interior of the subarctic Pacific is assessed by using a slightly modified “NO” parameter [Broecker, W., 1974. “NO” a conservative water-mass tracer. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 23, 100-107]. The highest nitrate-oxygen signature in interior waters of the North Pacific is found in the Bering Sea Gyre, Western Subarctic Gyre and East Kamchatka Current region as a consequence of winter mixing to the ∼26.6 isopycnal. By mixing with low NO waters found in the subtropics and Okhotsk Sea, this signature is diluted as waters flow eastward across the Pacific. Evidence of low NO waters flowing north from California is seen along the coasts of British Columbia and SE Alaska. Oxygen in the subsurface waters of the Alaskan Gyre was supplied ∼60% by subarctic and 40% by subtropical waters during WOCE surveys, whereas such estimates are shown to periodically vary by 20% at OSP. Other features discernable in the OSP data include periods of increased ventilation of deeper isopycnals on an ∼18 year cycle and strong, short term (few month) variability caused by passing mesoscale eddies. The potential impacts of declining oxygen on coastal ecosystems are discussed.     

Mass Estimation in the Globular Cluster M4

Using the kinematical data we try to solve the Jeans equation to provide mass estimation of the globular cluster M4. The proper motion data provides two independent velocity dispersion profiles which we need in this estimation. Moreover, we have calculated the density distribution function and checked the anisotropy of the velocity dispersion. The comparison of the dynamical mass with the estimation stellar mass for M4 gives the best estimation of the mass inside a spherical shell centered on the cluster, with a radius corresponding to 840 arcsec on the sky, as 4-5× 10⁴ M . This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Contaminant exposure and effects in Baltic ringed and grey seals as assessed by biomarkers

The Baltic Sea ecosystem has suffered from a heavy pollutant load for more than three decades. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals have been of most concern due to their persistence and toxic properties. Ringed seals (Phoca hispida baltica) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) living in the Baltic Sea have been suffering from pathological impairments, including reproductive disturbances, which have resulted in a depressed reproductive capacity. We investigated several biochemical parameters as potential biomarkers for exposure to and effects of the contaminant load in the Baltic seals. Seals from less polluted areas were used as reference material in terms of the pollution load. In both Baltic seal populations, the levels of some biochemical parameters diverged from those in the reference seals, and some of these showed a clear correlation with the individual contaminant load. Of the potential bioindicators, we propose cytochrome P4501A activity and vitamin E levels, in blubber or plasma, as exposure biomarkers for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in both species. The arylhydrocarbon receptor-mediated chemical-activated luciferase gene expression (CALUX) response reflects the whole PCB and DDT burden in ringed seals. Retinyl palmitate (vitamin A) levels showed a negative correlation with the individual POP load, and is proposed as potential effect biomarkers for the depletion of the vitamin A stores. As the nutritional levels of both vitamin A and E have an impact on the vitamin levels in the seals, more information on the dietary vitamin levels is needed before any conclusions can be drawn. As the relationship between biochemical parameters and contaminants varied between the two species, species-specific characteristics has to be considered when monitoring the health status and possible toxic effects of the contaminant load in ringed and grey seals.