土地资源约束下的北京食物供给潜力与优化(英文)

全球气候变化所带来的极端天气的频繁发生,水资源短缺情况下的农业用水的不断减少和伴随着人口增长与社会经济发展所引起的耕地面积下降,正在严重影响着世界范围内的食物安全。近年来由于食品价格的迅猛增长而导致的食品危机正在引起人们对增加地方食物供应的普遍关注。城市作为对食品安全更为敏感的地区,更是首当其冲受到食品危机的影响,城市一方面由于城市化快速发展,带来城市人口膨胀和消费多样性要求,从而形成需求的大幅增加,另一方面有由于城市周边耕地面积的不断减少,农业生产空间受到压缩,农业生产能力减弱,降低了城市的自我食品供给,引起自给率明显下降。如何保持供需之间的平衡,保障城市食品安全,成为亟需研究的问题。本文提出以食物足迹的概念,来衡量城市所间接消耗的土地资源,并以此为工具,以自给率为条件,来求得满足一定自给率条件下食物供给的空间对应格局。通过分析30年来北京食物足迹以及食物自给率的年际变化,得出结论:北京食物足迹从1981年的1.18万km2增加到2010年的2.94万km2,而自给率整体下降较多,蔬菜、水果、谷物及油脂类的自给率从1981年的59.3%、35.8%、37.3% 和 13.1% 下降到2010年的39.0%、27.0%、6.7% 和2.2%,可以看出蔬菜仍能保持相当的自给率,因此提高蔬菜自给率是增强城市自给能力的最佳选择。最后,以60%的蔬菜自给率为目标,提出了两种情景,包括完全以耕地为来源的空间应对格局,以及屋顶农业参与下的空间应对格局。     

Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.     

New metrics for managing and sustaining the ocean's bounty

Policies are arising around the world, most recently in the United States, that mandate the implementation of marine spatial planning as a practical pathway towards ecosystem-based management. In the new United States ocean policy, and several other cases around the globe, ecosystem services are at the core of marine spatial planning, but there is little guidance on how ecosystem services should be measured, making it hard to implement this new approach. A new framework is shown here for practical, rigorous ecosystem service measurement that highlights contributions from both natural and social systems. The novel three-step framework addresses traditional shortcomings of an ecosystem services approach by giving managers and scientists the tools to assess and track: (1) the condition of the ecosystem (supply metrics), (2) the amount of ocean resources actually used or enjoyed by people (service metrics), and (3) people's preference for that level of service (value metrics). This framework will allow real world progress on marine spatial planning to happen quickly, and with a greater chance for success.     

Factors influencing landscape pattern of the seagrass Halophila decipiens in an oceanic setting

The scale of landscape pattern formation of an ecological community may provide clues as to the processes influencing its spatial and temporal dynamics. We conducted an examination of the spatial organization of an annual seagrass (Halophila decipiens) in an open ocean setting at two spatial scales and growing seasons to identify the relative influence of external (hurricanes) versus internal (clonal growth) factors. Visual surveys of seagrass cover were conducted over 2 years within three replicate 1 km² study areas each separated by ∼25 km in an inshore–offshore transect along the southwest coast of Florida at depths between ∼10 and 30 m. A towed video sled allowed observations of seagrass cover of 1 m² areas approximately every 6 m over thousands of meters of evenly spaced transects within the study areas (coarse scale). The towed video revealed that 17.5% of the seafloor was disturbed irrespective of location or sample time. Randomly selected 10 × 10 m quadrats within the larger, 1 km² study areas were completely surveyed for seagrass cover by divers at 0.625 m² resolution (fine scale). The coarse-scale observations were tested using both conventional geostatistics and an application of a time-series technique (Runs test) for scale of seagrass cover contiguity. Fine-scale observations were examined using conventional geostatistics and a least squares approach (cumulative logistic).     

The Wasatch Environmental Observatory: A mountain to urban research network in the semi-arid western US

The 2085 km² Jordan River Basin, and its seven sub-catchments draining the Central Wasatch Range immediately east of Salt Lake City, UT, are home to an array of hydrologic, atmospheric, climatic and chemical research infrastructure that collectively forms the Wasatch Environmental Observatory (WEO). WEO is geographically nested within a wildland to urban land-use gradient and built upon a strong foundation of over a century of discharge and climate records. A 2200 m gradient in elevation results in variable precipitation, temperature and vegetation patterns. Soil and subsurface structure reflect systematic variation in geology from granitic, intrusive to mixed sedimentary clastic across headwater catchments, all draining to the alluvial or colluvial sediments of the former Lake Bonneville. Winter snowfall and spring snowmelt control annual hydroclimate, rapid population growth dominates geographic change in lower elevations and urban gas and particle emissions contribute to episodes of severe air pollution in this closed-basin. Long-term hydroclimate observations across this diverse landscape provide the foundation for an expanding network of infrastructure in both montane and urban landscapes. Current infrastructure supports both basic and applied research in atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemistry, climate, ecology, hydrology, meteorology, resource management and urban redesign that is augmented through strong partnerships with cooperating agencies. These features allow WEO to serve as a unique natural laboratory for addressing research questions facing seasonally snow-covered, semi-arid regions in a rapidly changing world and an excellent facility for providing student education and research training.     

Reforming Watershed Restoration: Science in Need of Application and Applications in Need of Science

Coastal and inland waters are continuing to decline in many parts of the world despite major efforts made to restore them. This is due in part to the inadequate role that ecological science has played in shaping restoration efforts. A significant amount of fundamental ecological knowledge dealing with issues such as system dynamics, state changes, context-dependency of ecological response, and diversity is both under-used by managers and practitioners and under-developed by ecologists for use in real-world applications. Some of the science that is being ‘used’ has not been adequately tested. Thus, restoration ecology as a science and ecological restoration as a practice are in need of reform. I identify five ways in which our ecological knowledge should be influencing restoration to a far greater extent than at present including a need to: shift the focus to restoration of process and identification of the limiting factors instead of structures and single species, add ecological insurance to all projects, identify a probabilistic range of possible outcomes instead of a reference condition, expand the spatial scale of efforts, and apply hierarchical approaches to prioritization. Prominent examples of restoration methods or approaches that are commonly used despite little evidence to support their efficacy are highlighted such as the use of only structural enhancements to restore biodiversity. There are also major gaps in scientific knowledge that are of immediate need to policy makers, managers, and restoration practitioners including: predictive frameworks to guide the restoration of ecological processes, identification of social-ecological feedbacks that constrain ecosystem recovery and data to support decisions of where and how to implement restoration projects to achieve the largest gains. I encourage ecologists to respond to the demand for their scientific input so that restoration can shift from an engineering-driven process to a more sustainable enterprise that fully integrates ecological processes and social science methods.     

Comparison of Nutrient and Microbial Dynamics over a Seasonal Cycle in a Mid-Atlantic Coastal Lagoon Prone to <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aureococcus anophagefferens</Emphasis> (Brown Tide) Blooms

To determine the roles of dissolved organic matter in the onset, duration, and decline of blooms of the “brown tide” pelagophyte, Aureococcus anophagefferens, nutrient and microbial dynamics, heterotrophic and autotrophic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) uptake, and peptide hydrolysis were compared in natural populations: (1) seasonally, among physically similar sites in a mid-Atlantic coastal lagoon, Chincoteague Bay, (2) at an individual site as a bloom initiated, developed, and declined, and (3) in whole versus size-fractionated water. Throughout the year, urea was the dominant form of N taken up at both bloom and nonbloom sites. C acquisition in the A. anophagefferens (1.2–5.0 μm) size fraction was dominated by bicarbonate uptake during bloom initiation but organic C compounds were taken up later during and after the bloom. Bacterial productivity was enhanced during and just after the bloom and bacterial abundance was four times higher at the bloom versus nonbloom site.     

Metabolites in bile of fish from São Sebastião Channel, São Paulo, Brazil as biomarkers of exposure to petrogenic polycyclic aromatic compounds

This study reports the analysis of polycyclic aromatic compound (PAC) metabolites, as biomarkers of exposure to PACs in marine environment. PAC metabolites were measured in bile samples from 14 species of demersal fish caught in the São Sebastião Channel (SSC), SE Brazilian coastline. Naphthalene (NPH) equivalents, phenanthrene (PHN) equivalents, and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) equivalents were quantified using a reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection method. For all samples, the means (±standard deviation, n = 37) of concentrations obtained for NPH, PHN, and BaP equivalents were, respectively, 290,000 ± 200,000 ng/g, 18,000 ± 14,000 ng/g, and 970 ± 1900 ng/g. These results indicate recent exposure of these fish to PACs in their environment. In addition, two species (Cyclichthys spinosus and Prionotus nudigula) of fish were analyzed in order to investigate local sources of PAC contamination in the SSC and the influence of the petroleum terminal in fish caught in remote areas. The results showed that these fish species potentially migrate along the channel, especially P. nudigula. Correlations among groups of PAC metabolites indicate the same petrogenic source for NPH and PHN equivalents and a combustion source (e.g., automobile, ships) for BaP equivalents. The ratio BaP/PHN equivalents (0.05 ± 0.07, n = 37) confirms the predominance of petrogenic PACs for contamination by these chemicals in this region.     

Alkenone paleothermometry: Biological lessons from marine sediment records off western South America

An empirical global core-top calibration that relates the alkenone unsaturation index to mean annual SST (maSST) is statistically the same as that defined for a subarctic Pacific strain of Emiliania huxleyi (CCMP1742) grown exponentially in batch culture under isothermal conditions. Although both equations have been applied widely for paleoSST reconstruction, uncertainty still stems from two key ecological factors: variability in the details of biosynthesis among genetically distinct alkenone-producing strains, and impacts of non-thermal physiological growth factors on . New batch culture experiments with CCMP1742 here reveal that diverge systematically from the core-top calibration in response to nutrient depletion and light deprivation, two physiological stresses experienced by phytoplankton populations in the real ocean. Other aspects of alkenone/alkenoate composition also respond to these stresses and may serve as signatures of such effects, providing an opportunity to detect, understand, and potentially correct for such impacts on the geologic record. A test case documents that sediments from the Southeast Pacific display the alkenone/alkenoate compositional signature characteristic of cells physiologically stressed by light deprivation. Such an observation could be explained if marine snow provided a major vector of sedimentation for these biomarkers. Late Pleistocene records in the Southeast Pacific yield plausible paleotemperature histories of ice-age cooling, but ice-age alkenone/alkenoate signatures fall outside the range of modern calibration samples of similar . They better match core-top samples deposited beneath waters characterized by much cooler maSST, suggesting key features of ice-age ecology for alkenone-producing haptophytes were different from today, and that the index taken alone may misgauge the total range of ice-age cooling at these locations. Analysis of the full spectrum of alkenone/alkenoate compositions preserved in sediments opens up a new opportunity that may improve the accuracy of paleotemperature estimates based on simple analysis and help resolve longstanding disagreements between various paleotemperature reconstruction methods.