The Impact of Climate Change on Wildfire Severity: A Regional Forecast for Northern California

We estimated the impact of climatic change on wildland fire and suppression effectiveness in northern California by linking general circulation model output to local weather and fire records and projecting fire outcomes with an initial-attack suppression model. The warmer and windier conditions corresponding to a 2 × CO₂ climate scenario produced fires that burned more intensely and spread faster in most locations. Despite enhancement of fire suppression efforts, the number of escaped fires (those exceeding initial containment limits) increased 51% in the south San Francisco Bay area, 125% in the Sierra Nevada, and did not change on the north coast. Changes in area burned by contained fires were 41%, 41% and –8%, respectively. When interpolated to most of northern California's wildlands, these results translate to an average annual increase of 114 escapes (a doubling of the current frequency) and an additional 5,000 hectares (a 50% increase) burned by contained fires. On average, the fire return intervals in grass and brush vegetation types were cut in half. The estimates reported represent a minimum expected change, or best-case forecast. In addition to the increased suppression costs and economic damages, changes in fire severity of this magnitude would have widespread impacts on vegetation distribution, forest condition, and carbon storage, and greatly increase the risk to property, natural resources and human life.     

Volunteering in catchment management groups: Empowering the volunteer

This paper discusses one aspect of a phenomenographic study that investigates experiences of individuals who volunteer their time for a variety of catchment care groups in coastal Queensland. Data were collected through group and personal interviews, which were undertaken in 2001. Interviews took place in a number of locations along the east coast of Queensland, from Brisbane to Mossman, just north of Cairns. A number of broad conceptions emerged from the data, and this paper discusses one of these, that of empowerment. Analysis of interviews revealed that some catchment volunteers became personally empowered, and developed skills that they would not otherwise have had. Other volunteers saw catchment volunteering as a vehicle for empowerment that allowed individuals to have a say in decision making and governance of local resources. Many volunteers, however, revealed the difficulties associated with public participation processes, and described power struggles that arose within groups, and at a community level, when catchment group members wanted to be directly involved in decisions affecting their local environments. These struggles were further complicated by a chronic lack of resources. Despite these setbacks, community catchment groups can provide personal and group empowerment, resulting in a 'little voice' as opposed to none.     

A damage model for the continuum rheology of the upper continental crust

In orogenic zones it is often considered appropriate to use a continuum rheology to model the deformation of the upper continental crust. In this paper we derive an applicable rheology utilizing fiber-bundle and continuum-damage models. We show that the results are identical and yield a power relation between stress σ and strain rate of the form σ= ^ρ−1. We constrain the applicable values of ρ utilizing Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks and conclude that ρ−1 is in the range of 5–15. With this strong nonlinear viscous rheology the behavior of the deforming upper crust approaches that of a perfect-plastic material.     

An Observational Study of Wind Profiles in the Baroclinic Convective Mixed Layer

A comprehensive planetary boundary-layer (PBL) and synoptic data set is used to isolate the mechanisms that determine the vertical shear of the horizontal wind in the convective mixed layer. To do this, we compare a fair-weather convective PBL with no vertical shear through the mixed layer (10 March 1992), with a day with substantial vertical shear in the north-south wind component (27 February). The approach involves evaluating the terms of the budget equations for the two components of the vertical shear of the horizontal wind; namely: the time-rate-of-change or time-tendency term, differential advection, the Coriolis terms (a thermal wind term and a shear term), and the second derivative of the vertical transport of horizontal momentum with respect to height (turbulent-transport term). The data, gathered during the 1992 STorm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology (STORM) Fronts Experiments Systems Test (FEST) field experiment, are from gust-probe aircraft horizontal legs and soundings, 915-MHz wind profilers, a 5-cm Doppler radar, radiosondes, and surface Portable Automated Mesonet (PAM) stations in a roughly 50 × 50 km boundary-layer array in north-eastern Kansas, nested in a mesoscale-to-synoptic array of radiosondes and surface data.We present evidence that the shear on 27 February is related to the rapid growth of the convective boundary layer. Computing the shear budget over a fixed depth (the final depth of the mixed layer), we find that the time-tendency term dominates, reflecting entrainment of high-shear air from above the boundary layer. We suggest that shear within the mixed layer occurs when the time-tendency term is sufficiently large that the shear-reduction terms – namely the turbulent-transport term and differential advection terms – cannot compensate. In contrast, the tendency term is small for the slowly-growing PBL of 10 March, resulting in a balance between the Coriolis terms and the turbulent-transport term. Thus, the thermal wind appears to influence mixed-layer shear only indirectly, through its role in determining the entrained shear.     

Landscape metrics as predictors of hydrologic connectivity between Coastal Plain forested wetlands and streams

Geographically isolated wetlands, those entirely surrounded by uplands, provide numerous landscape‐scale ecological functions, many of which are dependent on the degree to which they are hydrologically connected to nearby waters. There is a growing need for field‐validated, landscape‐scale approaches for classifying wetlands on the basis of their expected degree of hydrologic connectivity with stream networks. This study quantified seasonal variability in surface hydrologic connectivity (SHC) patterns between forested Delmarva bay wetland complexes and perennial/intermittent streams at 23 sites over a full‐water year (2014–2015). Field data were used to develop metrics to predict SHC using hypothesized landscape drivers of connectivity duration and timing. Connection duration was most strongly related to the number and area of wetlands within wetland complexes as well as the channel width of the temporary stream connecting the wetland complex to a perennial/intermittent stream. Timing of SHC onset was related to the topographic wetness index and drainage density within the catchment. Stepwise regression modelling found that landscape metrics could be used to predict SHC duration as a function of wetland complex catchment area, wetland area, wetland number, and soil available water storage (adj‐R² = 0.74, p < .0001). Results may be applicable to assessments of forested depressional wetlands elsewhere in the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic and Southeastern Coastal Plain, where climate, landscapes, and hydrological inputs and losses are expected to be similar to the study area.     

Organochlorine contaminants in endangered Hawaiian monk seals from four subpopulations in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

We analyzed blubber and blood samples for organochlorines (OCs) from 158 Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi) at four of their six primary breeding colonies in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Levels of OCs in blubber were lower in adult females compared to juveniles or adult males, evidently owing to the transfer of these lipophilic compounds to pups by pregnant and lactating females. Concentrations of SigmaPCBs and p,p'-DDE in blubber generally increased with age until seals were sexually mature and then continued to increase with age in males after puberty. Average levels of PCBs and PCB toxic equivalents (TEQs) in blubber were significantly higher in adult male and juvenile seals at Midway Atoll than the same age class of seals at the other colonies. Unlike concentrations of OCs in blubber, circulating levels of OCs in blood did not vary consistently among age classes of seals or among breeding colonies. Though the concentrations of OCs measured in Hawaiian monk seals were generally equal to or lower than those reported for other pinniped species in the North Pacific Ocean, they were high enough in a few seals to potentially affect their health.     

On board short-time high temperature heat treatment of ballast water: a field trial under operational conditions

A ballast water short-time high temperature heat treatment technique was applied on board a car-carrier during a voyage from Egypt to Belgium. Ballast water from three tanks was subjected for a few seconds to temperatures ranging from 55 degrees C to 80 degrees C. The water was heated using the vessel's heat exchanger steam and a second heat exchanger was used to pre-heat and cool down the water. The treatment was effective at causing mortality of bacteria, phytoplankton and zooplankton. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) standard was not agreed before this study was carried out, but comparing our results gives a broad indication that the IMO standard would have been met in some of the tests for the zooplankton, in all the tests for the phytoplankton; and probably on most occasions for the bacteria. Passing the water through the pump increased the kill rate but increasing the temperature above 55 degrees C did not improve the heat treatment's efficacy.     

Water quality, nutrients and the water framework directive in an agricultural region: The lower Humber Rivers, northern England

The water quality of rivers in the eastern part of the Humber Basin, north-eastern England is described from a baseflow survey (11–13 August 2006) of a wide range of water quality determinants, and long-term nutrient records of the Environment Agency of England and Wales (EA). The baseflow survey shows that the rivers are oversaturated with respect to dissolved CO₂ and calcite. They are sodium, potassium, lithium, boron, chloride, sulphate and fluoride bearing from a combination of atmospheric, within-catchment, agricultural and sewage effluent sources. Nitrate concentrations are uniform for rivers draining permeable bedrock but decrease for clay drainage areas. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations are variable across the catchments reflecting the importance and variability of point sources and within-river processing. The EA data show annual oscillations for both NO₃ and SRP concentrations. Average NO₃ concentrations vary between 3.3 and 18.8 mgN/l and concentrations are low during the summer months. Average SRP concentrations vary between 23 and 1959 μg/l. Highest SRP concentrations generally occur when there is effluent input from sewage treatment works and agricultural point sources (e.g. overflow from slurry tanks, farmyard washings). Despite many of the rivers being nutrient rich, they are generally of good biological quality when point source inputs are not important.     

Effects of age, sex and reproductive status on persistent organic pollutant concentrations in “Southern Resident” killer whales

“Southern Resident” killer whales (Orcinus orca) that comprise three fish-eating “pods” (J, K and L) were listed as “endangered” in the US and Canada following a 20% population decline between 1996 and 2001. Blubber biopsy samples from Southern Resident juveniles had statistically higher concentrations of certain persistent organic pollutants than were found for adults. Most Southern Resident killer whales, including the four juveniles, exceeded the health-effects threshold for total PCBs in marine mammal blubber. Maternal transfer of contaminants to the juveniles during rapid development of their biological systems may put these young whales at greater risk than adults for adverse health effects (e.g., immune and endocrine system dysfunction). Pollutant ratios and field observations established that two of the pods (K- and L-pod) travel to California to forage. Nitrogen stable isotope values, supported by field observations, indicated possible changes in the diet of L-pod over the last decade.     

Midden formation and intrasite chemical patterning in Kalinga,Philippines

Middens are surprisingly fluid entities in occupied communities, as shown by ethnoarchaeological research in Dalupa, Kalinga Province, northern Luzon, the Philippines. This study combines ethnoarchaeological observations of midden formation and disturbance in Dalupa with data from soils and sediments in natural, habitation, and midden contexts, including elemental data for 80 samples collected using inductively coupled plasma‐atomic emission spectroscopy. Most surface samples from habitation areas cluster with midden samples, although samples from the lower parts of theses profiles resemble samples from natural contexts around Dalupa. One explanation is a changing spatial distribution of active middens due to changes in house placement and occupation in Dalupa's history. Some habitation areas that chemically resemble middens may once have held middens, as suggested by the periodic changes in midden location from the cleaning and management of extramural space. Surface scatters of human and animal refuse throughout the habitation area may also contribute to this pattern. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.