The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).     

<Superscript>10</Superscript>Be surface exposure dating of the last deglaciation in the Aare Valley,Switzerland

The combined Rhone and Aare Glaciers presumably reached their last glacial maximum (LGM) extent on the Swiss Plateau prior to 24 ka. Two well-preserved, less extensive moraine stades, the Gurten and Bern Stade, document the last deglaciation of the Aare Valley, yet age constraints are very scarce. In order to establish a more robust chronology for the glacial/deglacial history of the Aare Valley, we applied ¹⁰Be surface exposure dating on eleven boulders from the Gurten and Bern Stade. Several exposure ages are of Holocene age and likely document post-depositional processes, including boulder toppling and quarrying. The remaining exposure ages, however yield oldest ages of 20.7 ± 2.2 ka for the Gurten Stade and 19.0 ± 2.0 ka for the Bern Stade. Our results are in good agreement with published chronologies from other sites in the Alps.     

Use of principal component analysis for identification of Rockland and Trego Hot Springs tephras in the Hat Creek Graben,northeastern California,USA

Discontinuous tephra layers were discovered at Burney Spring Mountain, northern California. Stratigraphic relationships suggest that they are two distinct tephras. Binary plots and standard similarity coefficients of electron probe microanalysis data have been supplemented with principal component analysis to correlate the two tephra layers to known regional tephras. Using principal component analysis, we are furthermore able to bound our uncertainty in the correlation of the two tephra layers. After removal of outliers, within the 95% prediction interval, we can say that one tephra layer is likely the Rockland tephra, aged 565–610 ka, and the second layer is likely from Mt. Mazama, the Trego Hot Springs tephra, aged ~ 29 ka. In the case of the Rockland tephra, the new findings suggest that dispersal to the north was highly restricted. For Trego Hot Springs ash, the new findings extend the distribution to the southwest, with a rapid thinning in that direction. Coupled with considerations of regular tephra dispersal patterns, the results suggest that the primary dispersal direction for both tephras was to the south, and that occurrences in other directions are unlikely or otherwise anomalous.     

Rising powers: the evolving role of BASIC countries

The exponential growth in global populations, economic activity and resource utilization means it is becoming increasingly difficult to satisfy global demand for a number of fundamental resources, while some key ecosystems services are under stress. The likelihood of future resource scarcities have begun to influence the positions taken within international climate change negotiations by fast-growing developing countries. When Brazil, South Africa, India, and China formed the BASIC group it took many by surprise. The coordination needed to align this heterogeneous group of countries cannot simply be understood in terms of a set of shared interests around climate policy. How the BASIC group emerged and the nature of its cooperation on climate change are examined within the broader context in which these increasingly powerful countries came to join forces. Although traditionally aligned with the G77 group of developing countries, recent strategising as a group of emerging economies reflects their realization that there are insufficient global resources available to follow the same development pathway as industrialized countries. Hence, they must seek alternative growth pathways, which requires establishing common ground while also keeping track of each others' positions on important global issues like climate change.     

Combining the use of gradients and reference areas to study bioaccumulation in wild oysters in the Hunter River estuary, New South Wales, Australia

Two approaches for measuring the effects of human activities on aquatic biota are gradient studies and comparison of impacted areas to external references. Wild oysters were sampled at 12 sites adjacent to, upstream and downstream of a steelworks in the Hunter River estuary and in two reference estuaries. Regression analyses for the Hunter indicated reduced concentrations with distance from the point source for some metals and PAHs. Data compared from the reference estuaries to the two sites nearest and the two furthest from the point source in the Hunter indicated elevated concentrations of contaminants both near the point source and on an estuary-wide basis. The gradient approach was useful in identifying the industrial effluent as a point source for bioavailable chemicals. Combining this with the use of reference estuaries provided a broad geographic context in which to interpret results from the Hunter and identified estuary-wide effects.     

Vertical structure of Jupiter’s Oval BA before and after it reddened: What changed?

To constrain the properties of Oval BA before and after it reddened, we use Hubble methane band images from 1994 to 2009 to find that the distribution of upper tropospheric haze atop the oval and its progenitors remained unchanged, with reflectivity variations of less than 10% over this time span. We quantify measurement uncertainties and short-term fluctuations in velocity fields extracted from Cassini and Hubble data, and show that there were no significant changes in the horizontal velocity field of Oval BA in 2000, 2006, and 2009. Based on models of the oval’s dynamics, the static stability of the oval’s surroundings was also unchanged.The vertical extent of the oval did not change, based on the unchanged haze reflectivity and unchanged stratification. Published vortex models require Brunt-Väisälä frequencies of about 0.08 s⁻¹ at the base of the vortex, and we combine this value with a review of prior constraints on the vertically variable static stability in Jupiter’s troposphere to show that the vortex must extend down to the condensation level of water in supersolar abundance.The only observable change was an increase in short-wavelength optical absorption that appeared not at the core of the oval, but in a red annulus. The secondary circulation in the vortex keeps this red annulus warmer than the vortex core. Although the underlying cause of the color change cannot be proven, we explore the idea that the new chromophores in the red annulus may be related to a global or hemispheric temperature change.     

Fusion of Radar and Optical Data for Land Cover Mapping

Abstract

This study examined the complementarity of radar and optical data for feature identification. Spaceborne radar and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM ) multispectral data sets were assessed independently and in combination to classify a site near Wad Medani, Sudan. Radar processing procedures included speckle reduction, texture extraction and post‐processing smoothing. Relative accuracy of the resultant classifications was established by comparison to ground truth information derived from field visitation. Neither speckle filtering nor post‐classification smoothing were improvements over the poor results obtained with the unfiltered, original radar data. Texture measures were significant improvements over the original data (20 percent overall accuracy increase) and several, but not all, individual classes had excellent results. Landsat TM had good overall results (80 percent correct) but considerable spectral confusion between urban and bare soil. Combination of radar with Landsat TM greatly improved results, achieving near perfect classification of all individual classes. The systematic strategy of this study, determination of the best individual method before introducing the next procedure, was effective in managing a complex set of analysis possibilities.     

Comparison and Integration of Radar and Optical Data for Land Use/Cover Mapping

Abstract

This study examined the complementarity of spaceborne radar and optical data for surface feature identification. RADARSAT data sets were assessed independently and in combination with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) multispectral data. The primary methodology was spectral signature extraction and the application of a statistical decision rule to classify the surface features for a site near Kericho, Kenya. Relative accuracy of the resultant classifications was established by digital integration and comparison to reference information derived from field visitation. Speckle filtering was a great improvement over the poor results achieved with the unfiltered, original radar data but still not adequate for accurate land cover classification. The extraction and use of Variance texture measures was found to be very advantageous. The overall results were not significant improvements over speckle removal (6% increase) but several individual classes, forest and urban, had excellent results with texture. Combinations of radar with Landsat TM greatly improved results, achieving near perfect classification of all individual classes. The highest overall accuracy was achieved with a merger that included the best individual texture image and six reflectance bands of the TM data. The systematic strategy of this study, determination of the best individual method before introducing the next procedure, was effective in managing a very complex, almost infinite set of analysis possibilities.     

Comparison of dew point temperature estimation methods in Southwestern Georgia

Recent upward trends in acres irrigated have been linked to increasing near-surface moisture. Unfortunately, stations with dew point data for monitoring near-surface moisture are sparse. Thus, models that estimate dew points from more readily observed data sources are useful. Daily average dew temperatures were estimated and evaluated at 14 stations in Southwest Georgia using linear regression models and artificial neural networks (ANN). Estimation methods were drawn from simple and readily available meteorological observations, therefore only temperature and precipitation were considered as input variables. In total, three linear regression models and 27 ANN were analyzed. The two methods were evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and other model evaluation techniques to assess the skill of the estimation methods. Both methods produced adequate estimates of daily averaged dew point temperatures, with the ANN displaying the best overall skill. The optimal performance of both models was during the warm season. Both methods had higher error associated with colder dew points, potentially due to the lack of observed values at those ranges. On average, the ANN reduced RMSE by 6.86% and MAE by 8.30% when compared to the best performing linear regression model.     

Simulating Australian Urban Climate in a Mesoscale Atmospheric Numerical Model

We develop an urban canopy scheme coupled to a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model and evaluate the simulated climate of an Australian city. The urban canopy scheme is based on the Town Energy Budget approach, but is modified to efficiently represent the predominately suburban component of Australian cities in regional climate simulations. Energy conservation is improved by adding a simple model of air-conditioning to prevent the urban parametrization acting as an energy sink during the Australian summer. In-canyon vegetation for suburban areas is represented by a big-leaf model, but with a largely reduced set of prognostic variables compared to previous approaches. Although we have used a recirculation/venting based parametrization of in-canyon turbulent heat fluxes that employs two canyon wall energy budgets, we avoid using a fixed canyon orientation by averaging the canyon fluxes after integrating over 180° of possible canyon orientations. The urban canopy scheme is evaluated by simulating the climate for Melbourne, Australia after coupling it to The Air Pollution Model. The combined system was found to predict a realistic climatology of air temperatures and winds when compared with observations from Environmental Protection Authority monitoring stations. The model also produced a plausible partitioning of the urban energy budget when compared to urban flux-tower studies. Overall, the urban canyon parametrization appears to have reasonable potential for studying present and predicting changes in future Australian urban climates in regional climate simulations.