Probabilistic estimate of seismic response design values of RC frames

Probabilistically controlled design values of the nonlinear seismic response of reinforced concrete frames are obtained using a method previously proposed by the authors. The method allows to calculate conservative design values characterized by a predefined non‐exceedance probability, using a limited number of spectrum‐fitting generated accelerograms. Herein the method is applied to elastic‐strain hardening single degree of freedom systems representative of RC framed structures and is then assessed with reference to four reinforced concrete model frames designed according to EC8. The frames are characterized by different natural periods and aspect ratios. The results, compared with those obtained applying current EC8 recommendations, show the effectiveness of the proposed method. EC8 provides for design values of the seismic response of a structure with a nonlinear behavior computed as the mean value of the responses to seven accelerograms or as the maximum value of the responses to three accelerograms. These two criteria lead to design values characterized by very different and uncontrolled non‐exceedance probability levels, while the proposed method allows the analyst to directly control the non‐exceedance probability level of the calculated design values. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment

We analyse the observed climate-driven changes in summer wildfires and their future evolution in a typical Mediterranean environment (NE Spain). By analysing observed climate and fire data from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the response of fire number (NF) and burned area (BA) to climate trends, disentangling the drivers responsible for long-term and interannual changes by means of a parsimonious Multi Linear Regression model (MLR). In the last forty years, the observed NF trend was negative. Here we show that, if improvements in fire management were not taken into account, the warming climate forcing alone would have led to a positive trend in NF. On the other hand, for BA, higher fuel flammability is counterbalanced by the indirect climate effects on fuel structure (i.e. less favourable conditions for fine-fuel availability and fuel connectivity), leading to a slightly negative trend. Driving the fire model with A1B climate change scenarios based on a set of Regional Climate Models from the ENSEMBLES project indicates that increasing temperatures promote a positive trend in NF if no further improvements in fire management are introduced.     

A reverse KAM method to estimate unknown mutual inclinations in exoplanetary systems

The inclinations of exoplanets detected via radial velocity method are essentially unknown. We aim to provide estimations of the ranges of mutual inclinations that are compatible with the long-term stability of the system. Focusing on the skeleton of an extrasolar system, i.e. considering only the two most massive planets, we study the Hamiltonian of the three-body problem after the reduction of the angular momentum. Such a Hamiltonian is expanded both in Poincaré canonical variables and in the small parameter \(D_2\), which represents the normalised angular momentum deficit. The value of the mutual inclination is deduced from \(D_2\) and, thanks to the use of interval arithmetic, we are able to consider open sets of initial conditions instead of single values. Looking at the convergence radius of the Kolmogorov normal form, we develop a reverse KAM approach in order to estimate the ranges of mutual inclinations that are compatible with the long-term stability in a KAM sense. Our method is successfully applied to the extrasolar systems HD 141399, HD 143761 and HD 40307.     

Age refinement of the Messinian salinity crisis onset in the Mediterranean

We propose a revised age calibration of the Messinian salinity crisis onset in the Mediterranean at 5.971 Ma based on the recognition of an extra gypsum cycle in the transitional interval of the Perales section (Sorbas basin, Spain) and the revision of the magnetostratigraphy of the Monticino section (Vena del Gesso basin, Italy). This age re‐calibration allows to state more accurately that: (i) the interval encompassing the MSC‐onset is continuous, thus ruling out any erosional feature or stratigraphic hiatus related to a major sea‐level fall affecting the Mediterranean; (ii) the first gypsum was deposited during the summer insolation peak at 5.969 Ma associated with an eccentricity minimum and roughly coincident with glacial stage TG32; (iii) the MSC‐onset was preconditioned by the tectonically‐driven reduction of the hydrological exchanges with the Atlantic Ocean and finally triggered by glacial conditions in the northern hemisphere and by arid conditions in northern Africa.     

Experimental investigation of the time-dependent response of unreinforced and reinforced tunnel faces in cohesive soils

In spite of the increasing diffusion of tunnel boring machines, conventional tunnelling is still preferred for economic reasons in case of short tunnels, unconventional cross sections or irregular tunnel trajectories. In conventional tunnelling, the mechanical response of the tunnel front is a main concern and, when tunnels are excavated in cohesive soils, this is dominated by the time factor, related to geometry, to the mean excavation rate and to the hydro-mechanical properties of the materials involved. This is particularly evident during excavation standstill: front displacements progressively increase with time and, in many cases, the system response under long-term conditions becomes unstable. In conventional tunnelling, a common technique employed to improve the system response (under both short- and long-term conditions) is the installation of fibreglass tubes within the advance core. In this paper, the mechanical response of both unreinforced and reinforced deep tunnel fronts in cohesive soils is experimentally analysed. In particular, the results of a series of 1 g small-scale tests, taking into account both the influence of the excavation rate (the unloading time) on the system response and the evolution with time of the tunnel face displacements, induced by a rapid reduction in the horizontal stress applied on the tunnel face, are reported.     

<Superscript>10</Superscript>Be surface exposure dating of the last deglaciation in the Aare Valley,Switzerland

The combined Rhone and Aare Glaciers presumably reached their last glacial maximum (LGM) extent on the Swiss Plateau prior to 24 ka. Two well-preserved, less extensive moraine stades, the Gurten and Bern Stade, document the last deglaciation of the Aare Valley, yet age constraints are very scarce. In order to establish a more robust chronology for the glacial/deglacial history of the Aare Valley, we applied ¹⁰Be surface exposure dating on eleven boulders from the Gurten and Bern Stade. Several exposure ages are of Holocene age and likely document post-depositional processes, including boulder toppling and quarrying. The remaining exposure ages, however yield oldest ages of 20.7 ± 2.2 ka for the Gurten Stade and 19.0 ± 2.0 ka for the Bern Stade. Our results are in good agreement with published chronologies from other sites in the Alps.     

Thermal inertia of near-Earth asteroids and implications for the magnitude of the Yarkovsky effect

Thermal inertia determines the temperature distribution over the surface of an asteroid and therefore governs the magnitude the Yarkovsky effect. The latter causes gradual drifting of the orbits of km-sized asteroids and plays an important role in the delivery of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) from the main belt and in the dynamical spreading of asteroid families. At present, very little is known about the thermal inertia of asteroids in the km size range. Here we show that the average thermal inertia of a sample of NEAs in the km-size range is . Furthermore, we identify a trend of increasing thermal inertia with decreasing asteroid diameter, D. This indicates that the dependence of the drift rate of the orbital semimajor axis on the size of asteroids due to the Yarkovsky effect is a more complex function than the generally adopted D⁻¹ dependence, and that the size distribution of objects injected by Yarkovsky-driven orbital mobility into the NEA source regions is less skewed to smaller sizes than generally assumed. We discuss how this fact may help to explain the small difference in the slope of the size distribution of km-sized NEAs and main-belt asteroids.     

Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models

The Bayesian framework is the standard approach for data assimilation in reservoir modeling. This framework involves characterizing the posterior distribution of geological parameters in terms of a given prior distribution and data from the reservoir dynamics, together with a forward model connecting the space of geological parameters to the data space. Since the posterior distribution quantifies the uncertainty in the geologic parameters of the reservoir, the characterization of the posterior is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based on Gaussian approximations, are often used for characterizing the posterior distribution. Evaluating the performance of those Gaussian approximations is typically conducted by assessing their ability at reproducing the truth within the confidence interval provided by the ad hoc technique under consideration. This has the disadvantage of mixing up the approximation properties of the history matching algorithm employed with the information content of the particular observations used, making it hard to evaluate the effect of the ad hoc approximations alone. In this paper, we avoid this disadvantage by comparing the ad hoc techniques with a fully resolved state-of-the-art probing of the Bayesian posterior distribution. The ad hoc techniques whose performance we assess are based on (1) linearization around the maximum a posteriori estimate, (2) randomized maximum likelihood, and (3) ensemble Kalman filter-type methods. In order to fully resolve the posterior distribution, we implement a state-of-the art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that scales well with respect to the dimension of the parameter space, enabling us to study realistic forward models, in two space dimensions, at a high level of grid refinement. Our implementation of the MCMC method provides the gold standard against which the aforementioned Gaussian approximations are assessed. We present numerical synthetic experiments where we quantify the capability of each of the ad hoc Gaussian approximation in reproducing the mean and the variance of the posterior distribution (characterized via MCMC) associated to a data assimilation problem. Both single-phase and two-phase (oil–water) reservoir models are considered so that fundamental differences in the resulting forward operators are highlighted. The main objective of our controlled experiments was to exhibit the substantial discrepancies of the approximation properties of standard ad hoc Gaussian approximations. Numerical investigations of the type we present here will lead to the greater understanding of the cost-efficient, but ad hoc, Bayesian techniques used for data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs and hence ultimately to improved techniques with more accurate uncertainty quantification.