Modeling ground deformations of Panarea volcano hydrothermal/geothermal system (Aeolian Islands, Italy) from GPS data

Panarea volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) was considered extinct until November 3, 2002, when a submarine gas eruption began in the area of the islets of Lisca Bianca, Bottaro, Lisca Nera, Dattilo, and Panarelli, about 2.5 km east of Panarea Island. The gas eruption decreased to a state of low degassing by July 2003. Before 2002, the activity of Panarea volcano was characterized by mild degassing of hydrothermal fluid. The compositions of the 2002 gases and their isotopic signatures suggested that the emissions originated from a hydrothermal/geothermal reservoir fed by magmatic fluids. We investigate crustal deformation of Panarea volcano using the global positioning system (GPS) velocity field obtained by the combination of continuous and episodic site observations of the Panarea GPS network in the time span 1995–2007. We present a combined model of Okada sources, which explains the GPS results acquired in the area from December 2002. The kinematics of Panarea volcano show two distinct active crustal domains characterized by different styles of horizontal deformation, supported also by volcanological and structural evidence. Subsidence on order of several millimeters/year is affecting the entire Panarea volcano, and a shortening of 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹ has been estimated in the Islets area. Our model reveals that the degassing intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by geophysical-geochemical changes within the hydrothermal/geothermal system. These variations may be triggered by changes in the regional stress field as suggested by the geophysical and volcanological events which occurred in 2002 in the Southern Tyrrhenian area.     

Multiplatform observation of the surface circulation in the Gulf of Naples (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea)

The Gulf of Naples (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) is a highly urbanised area, where human activities and natural factors (e.g. river runoff, exchanges with adjacent basins) can strongly affect the water quality. In this work we show how surface transport can influence the distribution of passively drifting surface matter, and more in general if and how the circulation in the basin can promote the renovation of the surface layer. To this aim, we carried out a multiplatform analysis by putting together HF radar current fields, satellite images and modelling tools. Surface current fields and satellite images of turbidity patterns were used to initialise and run model simulations of particle transport and diffusion. Model results were then examined in relation to the corresponding satellite distributions. This integrated approach permits to investigate the concurrent effects of surface dynamics and wind forcing in determining the distribution of passive tracers over the basin of interest, identifying key mechanisms supporting or preventing the renewal of surface waters as well as possible areas of aggregation and retention.     

Volatile-rich magma injection into the feeding system during the 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy): its role on explosive activity and change in rheology of lavas

The explosive behavior and the rheology of lavas in basaltic volcanoes, usually driven by differentiation, can also be significantly affected by the kinetics of magma degassing in the upper portion of the feeding system. The complex eruption of 2001 at Mt. Etna, Italy, was marked by two crucial phenomena that occurred at the Laghetto vent on the southern flank of the volcano: 1) intense explosive activity and 2) at the end of the eruption, emission of a lava flow with higher viscosity than flows previously emitted from the same vent. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that these events were driven by the injection of volatile-rich magma into the feeding system. The input and mixing of this magma into a reservoir containing more evolved magma had the twofold effect of increasing 1) the overall concentration of volatiles and 2) their exsolution with consequent efficient vesiculation and degassing. This led to an explosive stage of the eruption, which produced a ~75-m-high cinder cone. Efficient volatile loss and the consequent increase of the liquidus temperature brought about the nucleation of Fe-oxides and other anhydrous crystalline phases, which significantly increased the magma viscosity in the upper part of the conduit, leading to the emission of a high viscosity lava flow that ended the eruption. The 2001 eruption has offered the opportunity to investigate the important role that input of volatile-rich magma may exert in controlling not only the geochemical features of erupted lavas but also the eruption dynamics. These results present a new idea for interpreting similar eruptions in other basaltic volcanoes and explaining eruptions with uncommonly high explosivity when only basic magmas are involved.     

SVME: an ensemble of support vector machines for detecting oil spills from full resolution MODIS images

This paper addresses oil spill detection from remotely sensed optical images. In particular, it focuses on the automatic classification of regions of interest (ROIs) in two classes, namely oil spills or look-alikes. Candidate regions and the corresponding boundaries have been manually identified from full resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images, related to the Mediterranean Sea over the years 2008 and 2009. Then, a set of features has been extracted from each ROI, allowing to formulate the oil spill detection problem as a two-class classification task on the provided regions (i.e. using a supervised learning strategy). Since ROI classification is challenging, some desired characteristics for the classification algorithm are first identified, such as accuracy, robustness, etc. Then, a solution (called SVME) is provided: it is based on an ensemble of incremental/decremental cost-oriented Support Vector Machines, aggregated with the Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) convex hull method in the ROC space. Such a solution addresses all the desired characteristics. Finally, the results obtained on the collected dataset are shown. The importance of this study is the devising of a powerful classification technique that may have an impact on optical oil spill detection from space, especially if fused with satellite synthetic aperture radar data. Moreover, it is shown how the proposed system can be used as a decision support tool, to help a junior operator in making more reliable detections.     

Seismic fragility curves of as-built single-span masonry arch bridges

Masonry arch bridges are crucial elements in the railway transportation network throughout Europe. Although significant advances in seismic risk assessment of various bridge types have been made by developing fragility curves of generalized classes of structures, there are no comparable tools for masonry arch structures. In this context, this paper presents the construction of seismic fragility curves of single-span masonry bridges according to the limit analysis method. An iterative procedure is implemented to define the capacity curve of the equivalent single degree of freedom system through non-linear kinematic analysis. The process involves determination of the collapse mechanism, calculation of the limit load multiplier, and definition of the thrust line. The intrinsic variability of the seismic action is incorporated with the use of different sets of elastic spectra compatible with EC 8 Type-1 spectrum for various types of soil, with peak ground acceleration varying over the range 0.05–1.5 g. The fragility curves of the generalized classes of single-span masonry bridges are finally obtained from the effective ranges of the main geometric and material parameters affecting arch bridge capacity.     

Impact of model complexity and multi-scale data integration on the estimation of hydrogeological parameters in a dual-porosity aquifer

This study investigates the impact of model complexity and multi-scale prior hydrogeological data on the interpretation of pumping test data in a dual-porosity aquifer (the Chalk aquifer in England, UK). In order to characterize the hydrogeological properties, different approaches ranging from a traditional analytical solution (Theis approach) to more sophisticated numerical models with automatically calibrated input parameters are applied. Comparisons of results from the different approaches show that neither traditional analytical solutions nor a numerical model assuming a homogenous and isotropic aquifer can adequately explain the observed drawdowns. A better reproduction of the observed drawdowns in all seven monitoring locations is instead achieved when medium and local-scale prior information about the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution is used to constrain the model calibration process. In particular, the integration of medium-scale vertical K variations based on flowmeter measurements lead to an improvement in the goodness-of-fit of the simulated drawdowns of about 30%. Further improvements (up to 70%) were observed when a simple upscaling approach was used to integrate small-scale K data to constrain the automatic calibration process of the numerical model. Although the analysis focuses on a specific case study, these results provide insights about the representativeness of the estimates of hydrogeological properties based on different interpretations of pumping test data, and promote the integration of multi-scale data for the characterization of heterogeneous aquifers in complex hydrogeological settings.     

Ressi experimental catchment: Ecohydrological research in the Italian pre-Alps

Ressi is a small (2.4 ha) forested catchment located in the Italian pre-Alps. The site became an experimental catchment to investigate the water fluxes in the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum and the impact of vegetation on runoff generation in 2012. The elevation of the catchment ranges from 598 to 721 m a.s.l. and the climate is humid temperate. The bedrock consists of rhyolites and dacites; the soil is a Cambisol. The catchment is covered by a dense forest, dominated by beech, chestnut, maple, and hazel trees. The field set up includes measurements of the rainfall in an open area, streamflow at the outlet, soil moisture at various depths and locations, and depth to water table in six piezometers at a 5- or 10-min interval. Samples of precipitation, stream water, shallow groundwater and soil water are collected monthly for tracer analysis (stable isotopes (²H and ¹⁸O), electrical conductivity and major ions), and during selected rainfall–runoff events to determine the contribution of the various sources to runoff. Since 2017, soil and plant water samples have been collected to determine the sources of tree transpiration. Data collected in the period 2012–2016 are publicly available. Data collection is ongoing, and the data set is expected to be updated on an annual basis to include the most recent measurements.     

Risk assessment strategies for the reactivation of earth flows in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this paper is to analyze the reactivation mechanism of ancient earth flows, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to formulate a risk-reduction strategy. All considerations made herein are the result of direct experience and observation of actual events which have occurred over the past few decades in the Northern Apennines. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of the evolution of landslides during actual reactivation, acknowledging a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. The hazard assessment of these large landslide bodies, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation of these large and ancient earth flows is fundamental to effective land-use planning.