An integrated procedure to evaluate hydrological models

The growing concern for health‐related problems deriving from pollutants leaching is driving national and international administrations to support the development of tools for evaluating the effects of alternate management scenarios and identifying vulnerable areas. Cropping systems models are powerful tools for evaluating leachates under different environmental, social, and management conditions. As percolating water is the transport vehicle for pollutants transport in soil, a reliable evaluation of water balance models is a fundamental prerequisite for investigating pesticides and nitrate fate. As specific approaches for the evaluation of multi‐layer evolution of state variables are missing, we propose a fuzzy‐based, integrated indicator (I_SWC: 0, best; 1, worst) for a comprehensive evaluation of soil water content (SWC) simulations. We aggregated error metrics with others quantifying the homogeneity of errors across different soil layers, the capability of models to reproduce complex dynamics function of both time and soil depth, and model complexity. We tested I_SWC on a sample dataset where the models CropSyst and CERES‐Wheat were used to simulate SWC for winter wheat systems. I_SWC revealed that, in the explored conditions, the global assessment of the two models' performances allowed identification of CropSyst as the best (average I_SWC = 0·441, with a value of 0·537 obtained by CERES‐Wheat), although each model prevailed for some of the metrics. CropSyst presented the highest accuracy (average agreement module = 0·400), whereas CERES‐Wheat's accuracy was slightly worse, although achieved with a simplified modelling approach (average Akaike Information Criterion = − 230·44), thereby favouring large‐area applicability. The non‐univocal scores achieved by the models for the different metrics support the use of multi‐metric evaluation approaches for quantifying the different aspects of water balance model performances. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe

Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO₂ will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors.     

Quality control algorithms for rainfall measurements

One of the basic requirements for a scientific use of rain data from raingauges, ground and space radars is data quality control. Rain data could be used more intensively in many fields of activity (meteorology, hydrology, etc.), if the achievable data quality could be improved. This depends on the available data quality delivered by the measuring devices and the data quality enhancement procedures. To get an overview of the existing algorithms a literature review and literature pool have been produced. The diverse algorithms have been evaluated to meet VOLTAIRE objectives and sorted in different groups. To test the chosen algorithms an algorithm pool has been established, where the software is collected. A large part of this work presented here is implemented in the scope of the EU-project VOLTAIRE (Validation of multisensors precipitation fields and numerical modeling in Mediterranean test sites).     

Embedding reach-scale fluvial dynamics within the CAESAR cellular automaton landscape evolution model

We introduce a new computational model designed to simulate and investigate reach-scale alluvial dynamics within a landscape evolution model. The model is based on the cellular automaton concept, whereby the continued iteration of a series of local process ‘rules’ governs the behaviour of the entire system. The model is a modified version of the CAESAR landscape evolution model, which applies a suite of physically based rules to simulate the entrainment, transport and deposition of sediments. The CAESAR model has been altered to improve the representation of hydraulic and geomorphic processes in an alluvial environment. In-channel and overbank flow, sediment entrainment and deposition, suspended load and bed load transport, lateral erosion and bank failure have all been represented as local cellular automaton rules. Although these rules are relatively simple and straightforward, their combined and repeatedly iterated effect is such that complex, non-linear geomorphological response can be simulated within the model. Examples of such larger-scale, emergent responses include channel incision and aggradation, terrace formation, channel migration and river meandering, formation of meander cutoffs, and transitions between braided and single-thread channel patterns. In the current study, the model is illustrated on a reach of the River Teifi, near Lampeter, Wales, UK.     

Analytical models of contaminant transport in coastal aquifers

The Henry formulation, which couples subsurface flow and salt transport via a variable-density flow formulation, can be used to evaluate the extent of sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers. The coupling gives rise to nontrivial flow patterns that are very different from those observed in inland aquifers. We investigate the influence of these flow patterns on the transport of conservative contaminants in a coastal aquifer. The flow is characterized by two dimensionless parameters: the Péclet number, which compares the relative effects of advective and dispersive transport mechanisms, and a coupling parameter, which describes the importance of the salt water boundary on the flow. We focus our attention on two regimes – low and intermediate Péclet number flows. Two transport scenarios are solved analytically by means of a perturbation analysis. The first, a natural attenuation scenario, describes the flushing of a contaminant from a coastal aquifer by clean fresh water, while the second, a contaminant spill scenario, considers an isolated point source.     

Qualitative and quantitative aspects of the evolution of the planktonic populations in Lake Lugano

This study is a summary of all available information on the long-term and on the more recent development of the planktonic populations in Lago di Lugano with regard to its trophic evolution. The first effects of the lake eutrophication became manifest beginning in the 1950's and brought to important changes in the planktonic community as the appearance and the rapid increase of the filamentous algaeOscillatoria rubescens andStephanodiscus hantzschii, and the disappearance of the zooplanktonic Diaptomidae. Since 1980 the phosphorus concentration began to decrease in lake's epilimnion and the planktonic community showed a new composition, evidencing the presence of others predominant species:Oscillatoria redekei, Lyngbya limnetica, Stephanodiscus sp. (little form). Since 1989 algal standing crop reduced its value below 2 g m^–2 (dry weight); furthermore a strong decrease of the Cyanophceae and the appearance of new predominant species (Tabellaria fenestrata, div. Ulotrichales) occurred. At the same time an increase of the herbivorous zooplankton (Daphnia hyalina) and the come-back of the Diaptomidae was observed. Only in the northern basin a decrease tendency of the primary production was observed, changing from 480 to about 300 g C m^–2 yr^–1 during the last 10 years.     

The A and B mica layers and the crystal structure of sheet silicates

A discussion of the transition from the ideal hexagonal mica structure to the ideal ditrigonal one, leads to the conclusion that the single mica layer may have two different structures (labelled A and B). The recent literature data show that both the A and B structures have been detected in some triocahedral layer lattice silicates found in nature. An examination of the structural stability of the A and B structures suggests that the last one may not be realized by dioctahedral layer lattice silicates. The concept of two structurally different mica layers, which however have the same lattice constants, greatly improves the understanding of polymorphism and twin laws in layer lattice silicates.The structural features of the tetrahedral sheet, octahedral sheet and interlayer region are carefully examined. Thus we can reach the following conclusions: the tetrahedal sheet is not entirely free to reduce its lateral dimensions by the mechanism of tetrahedal rotation owing to the repulsion among O_bas atoms; the octahedral sheet in layer lattice silicates, may increase or reduce its lateral dimensions as compared to the lateral dimensions it has in the hydroxide minerals; the interlayer region is characterized by a regular octahedral coordination of the O_bas around the interlayer cation. On the ground of these conclusions, new structural models for some selected layer lattice silicates are proposed.Notations O_bas basal oxygen atoms of the (Al, Si)O₄ tetrahedra - O_ap apical oxygen atoms of the (Al, Si)O₄ tetrahedra - b _tetr b dimension which the tetrahedral sheet would assume if unconstrained - b _oct b dimension which the octahedral sheet has in the hydroxide minerals - b _obs observed value of b - c _oct ^* thickness of the octahedral sheet - d _o distance between an octahedral cation and an O_ap atom - d _int distance between an interlayer cation and an O_bas atom - average tetrahedral rotation from ideal hexagonal symmetry     

Plio-Quaternary volcanotectonic activity in the northern sector of the Main Ethiopian Rift: relationships with oblique rifting

Deformation and magmatism within the 90 km wide northern Ethiopian Rift system is concentrated along a narrow zone - the Wonji Fault Belt. Two key areas (the Nazret-Dera and Asela-Ziway areas), located along the eastern margin of the north-northeast to northeast trending Main Ethiopian Rift, have been investigated in order to reconstruct the recent tectonomagmatic evolution of the northern branch of the Main Ethiopian Rift. In these areas, Early Pleistocene volcanic products (Wonji Group) overlie Pliocene volcanic rocks (Eastern Margin Unit). Detailed stratigraphical reconstructions have revealed the presence of several tectonomagmatic units which can be correlated between the two study areas. The stratigraphical and petrological study of these units outlined (1) the bimodal composition (basalts-pantellerites) of the oldest and youngest units and the unimodal character (pantellerites) of the products erupted during the intervening period; (2) the mainly fissural origin of the ignimbrites and oldest basalts; and (3) a mafic/felsic volumetric ratio of 1:5.The geological data suggest that, around the Pliocene-Quaternary boundary, a change in the stress field occurred in this Main Ethiopian Rift sector, passing from a direction of extension roughly orthogonal to the rift shoulders, to oblique rifting related to an east-west trending extension. In this framework the change in the style of volcanism observed in the Nazret-Dera and Asela-Ziway areas can be related to the change of the stress field. A new geodynamic model is presented for the Late Pliocene to Recent evolution of this sector of the Main Ethiopian Rift. According to this model, a large volume of rhyolitic products was erupted during an oblique rifting phase, following a previous period of pure extension. The change in the tectonic regime favoured partial melting of the underplated basalts as a decrease in the pressure and an elevation of isotherms occurred.     

Study of the variability of the Delta Scuti-stars

Photoelectric observations of the Delta Scuti star KW 207 (HD 73576) are given. In spite of the low variations, the analysis of the light curves shows at least two sighificant periodicities, which seem to be related to non-radial pulsations.A third frequency, corresponding to the radial fundamental mode, is probably bame out by our data.