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21.
Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern
and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the
introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation.
The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated
breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while
the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO2 will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable
yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry
in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased
precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however,
increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect
forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities.
Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change
on agricultural and forestry sectors. 相似文献
22.
Tahmineh Pirnia Emilio Saccani Ghodrat Torabi Marco Chiari Spela Gorican Edoardo Barbero 《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(1):57-81
The Nain and Ashin ophiolites consist of Mesozoic melange units that were emplaced in the Late Cretaceous onto the continental basement of the Central-East Iran microcontinent(CEIM).They largely consist of serpentinized peridotites slices;nonetheless,minor tectonic slices of sheeted dykes and pillow lavas-locally stratigraphically associated with radiolarian cherts-can be found in these ophiolitic melanges.Based on their whole rock geochemistry and mineral chemistry,these rocks can be divided into two geochemical groups.The sheeted dykes and most of the pillow lavas show island arc tholeiitic(IAT)affinity,whereas a few pillow lavas from the Nain ophiolites show calc-alkaline(CA)affinity.Petrogenetic modeling based on trace elements composition indicates that both IAT and CA rocks derived from partial melting of depleted mantle sources that underwent enrichment in subduction-derived components prior to melting.Petrogenetic modeling shows that these components were represented by pure aqueous fluids,or sediment melts,or a combination of both,suggesting that the studied rocks were formed in an arc-forearc tectonic setting.Our new biostratigraphic data indicate this arc-forearc setting was active in the Early Cretaceous.Previous tectonic interpretations suggested that the Nain ophiolites formed,in a Late Cretaceous backarc basin located in the south of the CEIM(the so-called Nain-Baft basin).However,recent studies showed that the CEIM underwent a counter-clockwise rotation in the Cenozoic,which displaced the Nain and Ashin ophiolites in their present day position from an original northeastward location.This evidence combined with our new data and a comparison of the chemical features of volcanic rocks from different ophiolites around the CEIM allow us to suggest that the Nain-Ashin volcanic rocks and dykes were formed in a volcanic arc that developed on the northern margin of the CEIM during the Early Cretaceous in association with the subduction,below the CEIM,of a Neo-Tethys oceanic branch that was existing between the CEIM and the southern margin of Eurasia.As a major conclusion of this paper,a new geodynamic model for the Cretaceous evolution of the CEIM and surrounding Neo-Tethyan oceanic basins is proposed. 相似文献
23.
24.
Joeri Kaal Yolanda Carrión Marco Eleni Asouti Maria Martín Seijo Antonio Martínez Cortizas Manuela Costa Casáis Felipe Criado Boado 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(1-2):161-175
The Holocene fire regime is thought to have had a key role in deforestation and shrubland expansion in Galicia (NW Spain) but the contribution of past societies to vegetation burning remains poorly understood. This may be, in part, due to the fact that detailed fire records from areas in close proximity to archaeological sites are scarce. To fill this gap, we performed charcoal analysis in five colluvial soils from an archaeological area (Campo Lameiro) and compared the results to earlier studies from this area and palaeo-ecological literature from NW Spain. This analysis allowed for the reconstruction of the vegetation and fire dynamics in the area during the last ca 11 000 yrs. In the Early Holocene, Fabaceae and Betula sp. were dominant in the charcoal record. Quercus sp. started to replace these species around 10 000 cal BP, forming a deciduous forest that prevailed during the Holocene Thermal Maximum until ~5500 cal BP. Following that, several cycles of potentially fire-induced forest regression with subsequent incomplete recovery eventually led to the formation of an open landscape dominated by shrubs (Erica sp. and Fabaceae). Major episodes of forest regression were (1) ~5500–5000 cal BP, which marks the mid-Holocene cooling after the Holocene Thermal Maximum, but also the period during which agropastoral activities in NW Spain became widespread, and (2) ~2000–1500 cal BP, which corresponds roughly to the end of the Roman Warm Period and the transition from the Roman to the Germanic period. The low degree of chronological precision, which is inherent in fire history reconstructions from colluvial soils, made it impossible to distinguish climatic from human-induced fires. Nonetheless, the abundance of synanthropic pollen indicators (e.g. Plantago lanceolata and Urtica dioica) since at least ~6000 cal BP strongly suggests that humans used fire to generate and maintain pasture. 相似文献
25.
26.
Giulia Zuecco Chiara Marchina Ylenia Gelmini Anam Amin H. J. van Meerveld Daniele Penna Marco Borga 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14095
Ressi is a small (2.4 ha) forested catchment located in the Italian pre-Alps. The site became an experimental catchment to investigate the water fluxes in the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum and the impact of vegetation on runoff generation in 2012. The elevation of the catchment ranges from 598 to 721 m a.s.l. and the climate is humid temperate. The bedrock consists of rhyolites and dacites; the soil is a Cambisol. The catchment is covered by a dense forest, dominated by beech, chestnut, maple, and hazel trees. The field set up includes measurements of the rainfall in an open area, streamflow at the outlet, soil moisture at various depths and locations, and depth to water table in six piezometers at a 5- or 10-min interval. Samples of precipitation, stream water, shallow groundwater and soil water are collected monthly for tracer analysis (stable isotopes (2H and 18O), electrical conductivity and major ions), and during selected rainfall–runoff events to determine the contribution of the various sources to runoff. Since 2017, soil and plant water samples have been collected to determine the sources of tree transpiration. Data collected in the period 2012–2016 are publicly available. Data collection is ongoing, and the data set is expected to be updated on an annual basis to include the most recent measurements. 相似文献
27.
Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches
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Sebastiano Piccolroaz Elisa Calamita Bruno Majone Aurélien Gallice Annunziato Siviglia Marco Toffolon 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3901-3917
River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
28.
Frederico Sousa Guimares Alexandre Raphael Cabral Bernd Lehmann Francisco Javier Rios Moiss Augusto Bacellar vila Marco Paulo de Castro Glucia Nascimento Queiroga 《地学学报》2019,31(4):358-365
Native bismuth in the form of metallic melt has been considered instrumental to the formation of some metallic ore deposits via a mechanism dubbed the “Liquid Bismuth Collector Model.” Here, we provide petrographical documentation of trail‐forming, μm‐sized blebs of native bismuth in cassiterite–quartz veins from the Santa Bárbara greisen Sn deposit in the Rondônia tin province of northern Brazil. These inclusions suggest the trapping of a Bi melt that took place during vein formation, in a mechanism similar to the entrapment of fluid inclusions. 相似文献
29.
30.
Integrating cellular automata,artificial neural network,and fuzzy set theory to simulate threatened orchards: application to Maragheh,Iran 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Urbanization processes challenge the growth of orchards in many cities in Iran. In Maragheh, orchards are crucial ecological, economical, and tourist sources. To explore orchards threatened by urban expansion, this study first aims to develop a new model by coupling cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural network with fuzzy set theory (CA–ANN–Fuzzy). While fuzzy set theory captures the uncertainty associated with transition rules, the ANN considers spatial and temporal nonlinearities of the driving forces underlying the urban growth processes. Second, the CA–ANN–Fuzzy model is compared with two existing approaches, namely a basic CA and a CA coupled with an ANN (CA–ANN). Third, we quantify the amount of orchard loss during the last three decades as well as for the upcoming years up to 2025. Results show that CA–ANN–Fuzzy with 83% kappa coefficient performs significantly better than conventional CA (with 51% kappa coefficient) and CA–ANN (with 79% kappa coefficient) models in simulating orchard loss. The historical data shows a considerable loss of 26% during the last three decades, while the CA–ANN–Fuzzy simulation reveals a considerable future loss of 7% of Maragheh’s orchards in 2025 due to urbanization. These areas require special attention and must be protected by the local government and decision-makers. 相似文献