Late Holocene mangrove dynamics dominated by autogenic processes

Generally, palaeoenvironmental interpretations consider only allogenic processes, when autogenic factors may have a strong influence on proxies of stratigraphic sequences. For instance, the Holocene history of the vegetation along the southern littoral of the State of Bahia in north‐eastern Brazil is characterized by mangrove dynamics controlled by allogenic processes. However, over smaller timescales (~700 years), autogenic processes may have controlled vegetation dynamics and hence observed pollen distribution. This work proposes tidal channel dynamics as one of the main cause for changes in pollen assemblage along the studied stratigraphic profiles during the last centuries, based on sedimentology, pollen and elemental analysis (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and C/N) and radiocarbon dating of sedimentary organic matter from two cores sampled from an abandoned meander and a tidal flat at the mouth of the Jucuruçu River. One core was sampled from a mangrove formed during the past ~550 cal yr bp . Another core recorded sediments in a várzea forest (swamp seasonally and permanently inundated by freshwater) located ~2.7 km from the current shoreline, which displayed a maximum age of ~680 cal yr bp . Two facies associations were identified: tidal channel (A) and tidal flat/oxbow lake (B). This work proposes allogenic processes as the main driving forces controlling the wetlands dynamics at the studied site during the Holocene. However, our data also reveal that part of the changes in vegetation over the last ~700 years reflect tidal channels and tidal flats development, which represent autogenic processes. The change in timescale analysis from the Holocene to recent centuries may have weakened the influence of allogenic factors. However, this needs interpretation with reference to the spatial scale of the depositional environment as the larger the depositional system analyzed, the stronger the influence of autogenic processes on stratigraphic sequences over longer timescales. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population biology of Excirolana armata (Dana, 1853) (Isopoda,Cirolanidae) on an exposed sandy beach in Southeastern Brazil

The reproductive biology and population dynamics of the cirolanid isopod Excirolana armata (Dana, 1853) were analysed through monthly samples from December 2003 to November 2005 on Una beach, São Paulo state (24° S), in Southeastern Brazil. Sampling was performed along three transects established from the base of foredunes to the waterline. On Una beach, E. armata showed continuous reproduction with higher abundances of ovigerous females in winter and spring (July–November) with a higher peak of juveniles in spring (November 2004). The fecundity ranged from 2 to 18 eggs/embryos per female, depending on the female length. The incubation period was estimated as 2 months. The life span of males and females was nearly 1 year. The short life span and the high energetic expenditure inherent to reproduction with maternal care, probably kept females from producing more than one brood in their lifetime. When comparing the population of E. armata on Una beach (24° S) with populations in Southern Brazil (32° S), Uruguay (34° S) and Argentina (36° S), it was verified that several biological population traits (length of the smallest juvenile, length of the largest individual, length of the smallest and largest ovigerous females, range of fecundity and life span) tended to increase at higher latitudes, whereas other traits (instantaneous rate of mortality and the curvature parameter of von Bertalanffy growth function) tended to decrease. However, comparing E. armata on Una beach (24° S) with a population situated at a close latitude (25° S), unexpected differences in relation to population structure and to growth demonstrated and reinforced the importance of density‐dependent factors over life history traits of E. armata on dissipative beaches.     

Shock-capturing Boussinesq-type model for nearshore wave processes

This paper describes the formulation and validation of a nearshore wave model for tropical coastal environment. The governing Boussinesq-type equations include the conservative form of the nonlinear shallow-water equations for shock capturing. A Riemann solver supplies the inter-cell flux and bathymetry source term, while a Godunov-type scheme integrates the evolution variables in time. The model handles wave breaking through momentum conservation with energy dissipation based on an eddy viscosity concept. The computed results show very good agreement with laboratory data for wave propagation over a submerged bar, wave breaking and runup on plane beaches as well as wave transformation over fringing reefs. The model accurately describes transition between supercritical and subcritical flows as well as development of dispersive waves in the processes.     

Impacts of Holocene and modern sea-level changes on estuarine mangroves from northeastern Brazil

Projections of the impacts of modern Relative Sea Level (RSL) rise on estuarine mangroves should be supported by coastal topographic data and records of mangrove dynamics under past RSL change. This work identified inland and seaward mangrove migrations along the Jucuruçu River (Bahia, Northeastern Brazil), during the Holocene based on sedimentary features, palynological and geochemical (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, C/N) data integrated with digital elevation models. During the Middle Holocene, in response to RSL rise, the estuary saw mangrove forest establish up to ~37 km inland. RSL stood between -1.4 (+0.36/-2.2 m) and +1 (2.19/0.2 m) around 7400 cal yr BP, and rose to a highest position of +3.25 (4.22/2.45 m) reached around 5350 cal yr BP. That marine incursion caused the inland replacement of freshwater vegetation by mangroves on tidal flats. Since then, the estuary experienced RSL fall, reducing inland tidal water salinity towards the Late Holocene, making that the mangroves were replaced by freshwater floodplain vegetation. Today, in the seaward part of the estuary near its mouth, mangroves occupy an area of ~10 km² along tidal channels. Considering a RSL rise of 98 cm up to the end of the 21^st century, at a rate significantly higher than that of Middle Holocene RSL rise (1.5 mm/yr) and fall (0.6 mm/yr), the current mangrove substrates are expected to drown and/or eroded near the coast, while new mangroves may establish inland, at topographically higher tidal flats in nowadays freshwater-tidal zones. Mangrove area could expand over 13 km² of coastal and flood plain. Following the same interaction between RSL/climate changes and Holocene mangrove dynamics, such upstream mangrove migration may be attenuated or intensified by changes in fluvial discharge. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison Between Kriging Variance and Interpolation Variance as Uncertainty Measurements in the Capanema Iron Mine, State of Minas Gerais—Brazil

The Capanema Mine, an iron ore deposit, is located in the central portion of the Quadrilátero Ferrífero, State of Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil. Mine development data from approximately 7000 drillholes were used for a comparative study between kriging variance and interpolation variance as uncertainty measurements associated with ordinary kriging estimates. As known, the traditional kriging variance does not depend on local data and, therefore, does not measure the actual dispersion of data. On the other hand, the interpolation variance measures adequately the local dispersion of data used for an ordinary kriging estimate. This paper presents an application of the concept of interpolation variance for measuring uncertainties associated with ordinary kriging estimates of Fe and silica grades. These data were selected for their distinct statistical characteristics with Fe presenting a negatively skewed distribution and, consequently, a low dispersion, and silica a positively skewed distribution and, therefore, a high variability. Comparative studies between the two uncertainty measurements associated with ordinary kriging estimates of Fe and silica proved the superiority of the interpolation variance as a reliable and precise alternative to the kriging variance.     

Simulations of warm tropical conditions with application to middle Pliocene atmospheres

During the early and mid-Pliocene, the period from 5 to 3 million years ago, approximately, the Earth is believed to have been significantly warmer than it is today, but the reasons for the higher temperatures are unclear. This paper explores the impact of recent findings that suggest that, at that time, cold surface waters were absent from the tropical and subtropical oceanic upwelling zones. El Niño was in effect a perennial rather than intermittent phenomenon, and sea surface temperatures in low latitudes were essentially independent of longitude. When these conditions are specified as the lower boundary condition for an atmospheric GCM, we find that the trade winds along the equator, and hence the Walker Circulation, collapse. The low-level stratus clouds in low latitudes diminish greatly, thus reducing the albedo of the Earth. The atmospheric concentration of water vapor increases, and enhanced latent heat release due to stronger evaporation warms up the tropical atmosphere, particularly between 40°S and 20°N. Moreover, teleconnection patterns from the Pacific induce a warming over North America that is enhanced by surface albedo feedback, a process that may have helped to maintain this region ice-free before 3 Ma. The results presented here indicate that the suggested absence of cold surface waters from the tropical and subtropical oceanic upwelling zones could have contributed significantly to the Pliocene warmth.     

Optimization for performance-based design under seismic demands,including social costs

Performance-based design in earthquake engineering is a structural optimization problem that has, as the objective, the determination of design parameters for the minimization of total costs, while at the same time satisfying minimum reliability levels for the specifi ed performance criteria. Total costs include those for construction and structural damage repairs, those associated with non-structural components and the social costs of economic losses, injuries and fatalities. This paper presents a general framework to approach this problem, using a numerical optimization strategy and incorporating the use of neural networks for the evaluation of dynamic responses and the reliability levels achieved for a given set of design parameters. The strategy is applied to an example of a three-story offi ce building. The results show the importance of considering the social costs, and the optimum failure probabilities when minimum reliability constraints are not taken into account.