Verifying warnings for point precipitation

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.     

Morphology and internal structure of a dormant landslide in a hilly area: The Collinabos landslide (Belgium)

This study attempts to reconstruct the history of the Collinabos landslide, a landslide with a fresh morphology that is representative for more than 150 dormant, deep-seated (> 3 m) landslides in the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium). A geomorphological map was created based on LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-derived maps and detailed field surveys. The map showed that the landslide consisted of three zones with significant differences in surface topography. The northern landslide zone 1 is characterised by at least five reverse slopes, whereas zones 2 and 3, the southern landslide zones, have only two reverse slopes and a convex foot. Electric resistivity profiles measured in zones 1 and 2 revealed that the differences in surface topography were not related to differences in internal structure as both parts of the landslide were initiated as a rotational earth slide with a surface of rupture at 15 m deep, where the displaced material broke apart in two blocks. However, two shear surfaces of reactivations within landslide debris were only distinguished in the accumulation area of zone 1. The observed differences in surface morphology can be caused by a temporary conversion of a forest into cropland in zone 2. It is suggested that reverse slopes of smaller reactivations within landslide debris were obliterated during the agricultural activities. AMS radiocarbon dating of organic material found in ponds located in reverse slopes generally resulted in relatively recent dates (i.e. 1400–1950 Cal AD) suggesting that several of the small local reactivations occurred in that period. One dating at 8700–8440 Cal BP of organic matter collected in a reverse slope in zone 1 suggests that an initiation under periglacial conditions cannot be excluded for the Collinabos landslide. By combining different technologies, this study provides valuable information for a better understanding of dormant landslides.     

Embedding reach-scale fluvial dynamics within the CAESAR cellular automaton landscape evolution model

We introduce a new computational model designed to simulate and investigate reach-scale alluvial dynamics within a landscape evolution model. The model is based on the cellular automaton concept, whereby the continued iteration of a series of local process ‘rules’ governs the behaviour of the entire system. The model is a modified version of the CAESAR landscape evolution model, which applies a suite of physically based rules to simulate the entrainment, transport and deposition of sediments. The CAESAR model has been altered to improve the representation of hydraulic and geomorphic processes in an alluvial environment. In-channel and overbank flow, sediment entrainment and deposition, suspended load and bed load transport, lateral erosion and bank failure have all been represented as local cellular automaton rules. Although these rules are relatively simple and straightforward, their combined and repeatedly iterated effect is such that complex, non-linear geomorphological response can be simulated within the model. Examples of such larger-scale, emergent responses include channel incision and aggradation, terrace formation, channel migration and river meandering, formation of meander cutoffs, and transitions between braided and single-thread channel patterns. In the current study, the model is illustrated on a reach of the River Teifi, near Lampeter, Wales, UK.     

X-ray imagery and physical core logging as a proxy of the content of sediment cores in cold-water coral mound provinces: a case study from Porcupine Seabight,SW of Ireland

Three provinces, characterized by the presence of carbonate mounds interpreted as cold-water coral banks have been reported in Porcupine Seabight, SW of Ireland and were recently subjected to many detailed studies. This contribution discusses the use of X-ray imagery and physical properties in deciphering palaeoceanographic, sedimentological and biological processes. Physical property core logging and X-ray imagery are used to identify and describe sedimentation regimes and so their respective palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatological settings in two mound provinces, respectively the Belgica mound province and the Magellan mound province. Both provinces show at present time clear differences in the hydrodynamic environment. This study confirms that also during the past the oceanographic and sedimentological environment of both provinces differ clearly. Impacts of glacial–interglacial variations and locally derived ice rafting events (IRE), comparable with the North Atlantic Heinrich events (HE) have been recognized in both provinces. Moreover, the combination of X-ray imagery, magnetic susceptibility, gamma density and P-wave velocity makes it possible to estimate the coral content and coral distribution in unopened cores localized on top of carbonate mounds. A comparison between on-mound and off-mound cores in both provinces allowed revealing some mechanisms of mound evolution and coral growth versus time.     

The radio frequency dielectric properties of the stratified UG1–UG2 geological unit in the Bushveld Complex

A new measurement technique enables the complex dielectric properties of the geological strata comprising the UG1–UG2 (Upper Group 1–Upper Group 2) unit of the Bushveld Complex in South Africa to be determined with unprecedented detail at radio frequencies (RF). Results of non-destructive laboratory measurements of representative diamond drill core samples from the UG1–UG2 unit are presented at 25 MHz. These data establish that the UG1 and UG2 chromitite layers are embedded in rock strata (norite, pyroxenite and anorthosite) which are translucent in the HF spectral band, whereas the chromitite layers themselves exhibit significant velocity contrast, making them good radar reflectors. The data presented here is useful for calibration of the radar system, and for predicting the range and resolution performance of borehole radars operating in both the hanging and footwalls of the economically important platiniferous UG2 reef.     

Approaches for modeling longitudinal dispersion in pore-networks

The purpose of this study is to quantify the dispersivity in the longitudinal direction by upscaling pore scale mixing over a network domain and to verify the dispersivity with that obtained through the more rigorous upscaling technique, the Brownian particle tracking model (BPTM). We model a porous medium with a network of pore-units that are comprised of pore bodies and bonds of finite volume. Such a pore-unit is assumed to be a mixing cell with the steady state flow condition for a single fluid. Dispersivity can be obtained by solving the mixing cell model (MCM) for the concentration in each pore-unit and by averaging the concentrations for a large number of pore units (as a function of time and space). A minimal size of network that ascertains an asymptotic value of dispersivity was determined and verified with large size pore networks. This numerically computed dispersivity is compared with the results from the BPTM for the same porous medium and flow conditions. We show that the dispersivity obtained from the MCM is equally reliable for the heterogeneous pore-networks and can be estimated as a function of pore size heterogeneity. For homogeneous networks with the MCM, the iteration time step plays an important role. On the other hand, for networks with the BPTM, the assumption of intra-bond velocity profile affects the results.     

Geoid, topography, and the Bouguer plate or shell

 Topography plays an important role in solving many geodetic and geophysical problems. In the evaluation of a topographical effect, a planar model, a spherical model or an even more sophisticated model can be used. In most applications, the planar model is considered appropriate: recall the evaluation of gravity reductions of the free-air, Poincaré–Prey or Bouguer kind. For some applications, such as the evaluation of topographical effects in gravimetric geoid computations, it is preferable or even necessary to use at least the spherical model of topography. In modelling the topographical effect, the bulk of the effect comes from the Bouguer plate, in the case of the planar model, or from the Bouguer shell, in the case of the spherical model. The difference between the effects of the Bouguer plate and the Bouguer shell is studied, while the effect of the rest of topography, the terrain, is discussed elsewhere. It is argued that the classical Bouguer plate gravity reduction should be considered as a mathematical construction with unclear physical meaning. It is shown that if the reduction is understood to be reducing observed gravity onto the geoid through the Bouguer plate/shell then both models give practically identical answers, as associated with Poincaré's and Prey's work. It is shown why only the spherical model should be used in the evaluation of topographical effects in the Stokes–Helmert solution of Stokes' boundary-value problem. The reason for this is that the Bouguer plate model does not allow for a physically acceptable condensation scheme for the topography. Received: 24 December 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 2000