Statistical forecast of the marine surge

Natural Hazards - This paper studies different machine learning methods for solving the regression problem of estimating the marine surge value given meteorological data. The marine surge is...     

Seasonal control of the Saint-Lawrence maximum turbidity zone by tidal-flat sedimentation

The core of the turbidity maximum zone in the Saint-Lawrence Estuary is located in the North Channel and oscillates in front of the large (3×10⁶ m²) intertidal flats and marshes of Cap Tourmente. It is shown that seasonal fluctuations in the intensity and the position of this core are mainly determined by suspended sediment exchanges between the channel and the marshes. Fine sediments, most of them found 20 km downstream in the channel off Cap Maillard in late winter and early spring, are advected upstream over the flats during the summer months by the tide. The deposition, favored by marsh plant growth, reaches 5×10⁵ metric tons in three months. A period of intense erosion, at a mean rate of 4,500 metric tons per tide, coincides with the destruction of the plant cover by migratory geese. The material removed fills up the Chenal de l’Île d’Orléans upstream and is flushed back into the water column during the next spring freshette. This rotating seasonal sediment circulation, although very localized, exerts a major influence on the distribution and storage time of suspended particles in the upper estuary.     

Rhenium and chalcophile elements in basaltic glasses from Ko’olau and Moloka’i volcanoes: Magmatic outgassing and composition of the Hawaiian plume

The behavior of chalcophile metals in volcanic environments is important for a variety of economic and environmental applications, and for understanding large-scale processes such as crustal recycling into the mantle. In order to better define the behavior of chalcophile metals in ocean island volcanoes, we measured the concentrations of Re, Cd, Bi, Cu, Pb, Zn, Pt, S, and a suite of major elements and lithophile trace elements in moderately evolved (6-7% MgO) tholeiitic glasses from Ko’olau and Moloka’i volcanoes. Correlated variations in the Re, Cd, and S contents of these glasses are consistent with loss of these elements as volatile species during magmatic outgassing. Bismuth also shows a good correlation with S in the Ko’olau glasses, but undegassed glasses from Moloka’i have unexpectedly low Bi contents. Rhenium appears to have been more volatile than either Cd or Bi in these magmas.Undegassed glasses with 880-1400 ppm S have 1.2-1.5 ppb Re and 130-145 ppb Cd. In contrast, outgassed melts with low S (<200 ppm) are depleted in these elements by factors of 2-5. Key ratios such as Re/Yb and Cu/Re are fractionated significantly from mantle values. Copper, Pb, and Pt contents of these glasses show no correlation with S, ruling out segregation of an immiscible magmatic sulfide phase as the cause of these variations. Undegassed Hawaiian tholeiites have Re/Yb ratios significantly higher than those of MORB, and extend to values greater than that of the primitive mantle. Loss of Re during outgassing of ocean island volcanoes, may help resolve the apparent paradox of low Re/Os ratios in ocean island basalts with radiogenic Os isotopic compositions. Plume source regions with Re/Yb ratios greater than that of the primitive mantle may provide at least a partial solution to the “missing Re” problem in which one or more reservoirs with high Re/Yb are required to balance the low Re/Yb of MORB.Lithophile trace element compositions of most Ko’olau and Moloka’i tholeiites are consistent with variable degrees of melting of fertile mantle peridotite. However, light rare earth element (LREE)-enriched glasses have trace element compositions more consistent with a garnet-rich source having a distinctive trace element composition. This provides additional evidence for a unique source component possibly related to recycled oceanic crust contributing to Ko’olau tholeiites.     

Ontogenetic Habitat Shifts of the Atlantic Tomcod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Microgadus tomcod</Emphasis>) Across an Estuarine Transition Zone

Tomcod (Microgadus tomcod) in the St. Lawrence estuarine transition zone (ETZ) undergo an ontogenetic habitat shift. Older age classes, characterised by a male-dominated sex ratio, disperse downstream over the summer months to occupy the colder more saline waters of the estuary. Significant differences in length and mass along the salinity gradient were observed in September with upstream fish of any given age class generally exhibiting greater growth. These differences were not seen in early summer. Benthic amphipod δ ³⁴S signatures were strongly correlated with salinity and served to demonstrate that tomcod δ ³⁴S signatures were not in isotopic equilibrium in the more saline waters of the ETZ. Seasonal distributional patterns, growth dynamics and isotopic disequilibrium all indicate that the observed habitat shift may occur on an annual basis, following winter aggregation in warmer, less saline waters. Tomcod located in the downstream parts of the ETZ, predominantly males, were significantly more sexually developed than upstream tomcod for a given age. On the other hand, greater growth early in life is insured by occupying warmer, upstream waters during the summer months.     

Early Permian extensional shearing of an Ordovician granite: The Saint-Eutrope “C/S-like” orthogneiss (Montagne Noire,French Massif Central)

Dating the magmatic events in the Montagne Noire gneiss dome is a key point to arbitrate between the different interpretations of the Late Carboniferous–Early Permian tectonics in this southern part of the Variscan belt. The Saint-Eutrope orthogneiss crops out along the northern flank of the dome. We show that the protolith of this orthogneiss is an Ordovician granite dated at 455 ± 2 Ma (LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating on zircon). This age is identical to that previously obtained on the augen orthogneiss of the southern flank, strongly suggesting that both orthogneiss occurrences have the same Ordovician protolith. The Saint-Eutrope orthogneiss experienced intense shearing along the Espinouse extensional detachment at ca. 295 Ma (LA-ICP-MS U-Pb-Th on monazite), an age close to that determined previously on mica by the ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar method and contemporaneous with the emplacement age of the syntectonic Montalet granite farther to the west. This normal sense shearing reworked previous fabrics related to Variscan thrusting that can be still observed in the augen orthogneiss of the southern flank, and is responsible for the spectacular “C/S-like” pattern of the Saint-Eutrope orthogneiss. This work also shows that care is needed when dealing with C/S-type structures, since they can develop not only in syntectonic intrusions, but also in orthogneisses affected by an intense secondary deformation, at decreasing temperature.     

Verifying warnings for point precipitation

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.     

Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China,India, Nepal

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region.     

Local isotropy and anisotropy in the sheared and heated atmospheric surface layer

Longitudinal velocity and temperature measurements above a uniform dry lakebed were used to investigate sources of eddy-motion anisotropy within the inertial subrange. Rather than simply test the adequacy of locally isotropic relations, we investigated directly the sources of anisotropy. These sources, in a daytime desert-like climate, include: (1) direct interaction between the large-scale and small-scale eddy motion, and (2) thermal effects on the small-scale eddy motion. In order to explore these two anisotropy sources, we developed statistical measures that are sensitive to such interactions. It was found that the large-scale/small-scale interaction was significant in the inertial subrange up to 3 decades below the production scale, thus reducing the validity of the local isotropy assumption. The anisotropy generated by thermal effects was also significant and comparable in magnitude to the former anisotropy source. However, this thermal anisotropy was opposite in sign and tended to counteract the anisotropy generated by the large-scale/smallscale interaction. The thermal anisotropy was attributed to organized ramp-like patterns in the temperature measurements. The impact of this anisotropy cancellation on the dynamics of inertial subrange eddy motion was also considered. For that purpose, the Kolmogorov-Obukhov structure function equation, as derived from the Navier-Stokes equations for locally isotropic turbulence, was employed. The Kolmogorov-Obukhov structure function equation in conjunction with Obukhov's constant skewness closure hypothesis reproduced the measured second- and third-order structure functions. Obukhov's constant skewness closure scheme, which is also based on the local isotropy assumption, was verified and was found to be in good agreement with the measurements. The accepted 0.4 constant skewness value derived from grid turbulence experiments overestimated our measurements. A suggested 0.26 constant skewness value, which we derived from Kolmogorov's constant, was found to be adequate.