Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15 °C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1–5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.     

Tertiary alkaline Roztoky Intrusive Complex, České středohoří Mts., Czech Republic: petrogenetic characteristics

The ?eské st?edoho?í Mts. is the dominant volcanic center of the Oh?e (Eger) rift zone. It hosts the Roztoky Intrusive Complex (RIC), which is made up of a caldera vent and intrusions of 33–28-Ma-old hypabyssal bodies of essexite–monzodiorite–sodalite syenite series accompanied by a radially oriented 30–25-Ma-old dike swarm comprising about 1,000 dikes. The hypabyssal rocks are mildly alkaline mostly foid-bearing types of mafic to intermediate compositions. The dike swarm consists of chemically mildly alkaline and rare strongly alkaline rocks (tinguaites). The geochemical signatures of the mildly alkaline hypabyssal and associated dike rocks of the RIC are consistent with HIMU mantle sources and contributions from lithospheric mantle. The compositional variations of essexite and monzodiorite can be best explained by fractional crystallization of parent magma without significant contributions of crustal material. On the other hand, the composition of monzosyenite, leuco-monzodiorite and sodalite syenite reflects fractional crystallization coupled with variable degrees of crustal assimilation. It is suggested that the parent magmas in the Oh?e rift were produced by an adiabatic decompression melting of ambient upper mantle in response to lithospheric extension associated with the Alpine Orogeny.     

Dynamic sub-surface characteristic and the active faults of the Genç District locating over the Bingöl Seismic Gap of the East Anatolian Fault Zone,Eastern Turkey

The Genç District is located on the Bingöl Seismic Gap (BSG) of the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) with its?~?34.000 residents. The Karl?ova Triple Junction, where the EAFZ, the North Anatolian Fault Zone, and the Varto Fault Zone meet, is only 80 km NE of the Genç District. To make an earthquake disaster damage prediction of the Genç District, carrying a high risk of disaster, we have (1) prepared a new geological map, and (2) conducted a single-station microtremor survey. We defined that three SW-NE trending active faults of the sinistral Genç Fault Zone are cutting through the District. We have obtained dominant period (T) as?<?0.2 s, the amplification factor (A) between 8 and 10, the average shear wave velocity for the first 30 m (Vs₃₀) as?<?300 m/s, and the seismic vulnerability index (Kg) as?>?20, in the central part of the Genç District. We have also prepared damage prediction maps for three bedrock acceleration values (0.25, 0.50, 0.75 g). Our earthquake damage prediction scenarios evidenced that as the bedrock acceleration values increase, the area of soil plastic behavior expands linearly. Here we report that if the average expected peak ground acceleration value (0.55–0.625 g) is exceeded during an earthquake, significant damage would be inevitable for the central part of the Genç District where most of the schools, mosques, public buildings, and hospitals are settled-down.

     

To the problem of noise reduction in sea-level records used in vertical crustal movement detection

The aim of this investigation is to develop a simple technique that would allow us to use the sea-level records for detecting contemporary vertical crustal movements of duration from several months to several years. The choice of auxiliary data needed for any such analysis is restricted to the regularly available meteorological data to make this approach possible in routine search for precursory movements in earthquake-prone areas. A linear mathematical model is designed to evaluate the effect of atmospheric temperature and pressure variations, river discharge, long periodic tides and Chandlerian motion. Spectra of the residual sea-level variations are also shown. It is concluded that local episodic crustal movements of a magnitude larger than some 10 cm may be detectable by this approach. If finer resolution is needed then it it necessary to also account for steric level, wind, and sea-current variations, for which data are largely non-existent.     

Morphology and modern sedimentary deposits of the macrotidal Marapanim Estuary (Amazon,Brazil)

The northern Brazilian coast, east of the Amazon River is characterized by several macrotidal estuarine systems that harbor large mangrove areas with approximately 7600 km². The Marapanim Estuary is influenced by macrotidal regime with moderate waves influence. Morphologic units were investigated by using remote sensing images (i.e., Landsat-7 ETM+, RADARSAT- 1 Wide and SRTM) integrated with bathymetric data. The modern sedimentary deposits were analyzed from 67 cores collected by Vibracore and Rammkersonde systems. Analysis of morphology and surface sedimentary deposits of the Marapanim River reveal they are strongly influenced by the interaction of tidal, wave and fluvial currents. Based on these processes it was possible to recognize three distinct longitudinal facies zonation that revels the geological filling of a macrotidal estuary. The estuary mouth contain fine to medium marine sands strongly influenced by waves and tides, responsible for macrotidal sandy beaches and estuarine channel development, which are characterized by wave-ripple bedding and longitudinal cross-bedding sands. The estuary funnel is mainly influenced by tides that form wide tidal mudflats, colonized by mangroves, along the estuarine margin, with parallel laminations, lenticular bedding, root fragments and organic matter lenses. The upstream estuary contains coarse sand to gravel of fluvial origin. Massive mud with organic matter lenses, marks and roots fragments occur in the floodplain accumulates during seasonal flooding providing a slowly aggrading in the alluvial plain. This morphologic and depositional pattern show easily a tripartite zonation of a macrotidal estuary, that are in the final stage of filling.     

Forcing mechanisms of a heavy precipitation event in the southeastern Adriatic area

The aim of this study was to identify the main mesoscale features and mechanisms responsible for the generation of an extreme precipitation event as a contribution to improving the modelling of processes that produce HPEs. The event occurred during the morning hours on 22 November 2010 over the Dubrovnik coast in Croatia and the hinterland mountain range of the southern Dinaric Alps and caused severe flash floods and landslides and consequent interruption of traffic and electricity supply as well as other infrastructural damage. The analysis is geographically focused on the southern portion of the eastern Adriatic region, which is prone to relatively frequent heavy precipitation events that occur mostly in autumn. This area is one of the rainiest in Europe with expected annual amounts of precipitation greater than 5,000 mm in the mountainous hinterland. The mechanisms responsible for the formation of convection were analysed using synop measurements, satellite data and numerical experiments performed with the WRF model, which was set up at the convection-permitting resolution in the innermost domain. Satellite data were used to identify the precipitation systems and to estimate the intensity of the precipitation during the period of interest. The development of the precipitation system was connected to a strong large-scale ascent over the southern Italy and southern Adriatic due to the advection of warm air and cyclonic vorticity advection, which increases with height. The numerical simulations highlighted the essential role of a southerly low-level jet stream in the transport of warm and moist air towards the affected area. The convergence of two branches of low-level marine air favoured convection triggered over the coast and sea. Furthermore, numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the orography of the Dinaric Alps plays an essential role in the precipitation maximum over the mountainous hinterland, but also that the orography was not the crucial factor in the heavy precipitation near Dubrovnik. This study highlights the need for a dense network of observations, especially radar measurements, to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical forecasts via data assimilation.     

From a river valley to a ria: Evolution of an incised valley (Ría de Ferrol,north‐west Spain) since the Last Glacial Maximum

The evolution of incised valleys is an important area of research due to the invaluable data it provides on sea‐level variations and depositional environments. In this article the sedimentary evolution of the Ría de Ferrol (north‐west Spain) from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present is reconstructed using a multidisciplinary approach, combining seismic and sedimentary facies, and supported by radiocarbon data and geochemical proxies to distinguish the elements of sedimentary architecture within the ria infill. The main objectives are: (i) to analyse the ria environment as a type of incised valley to evaluate the response of the system to the different drivers; (ii) to investigate the major controlling factors; and (iii) to explore the differentiation between rias and estuaries. As a consequence of the sea‐level rise subsequent to the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 20 kyr bp ), an extensive basin, drained by a braided palaeoriver, evolved into a tide‐dominated estuary and finally into a ria environment. Late Pleistocene and Holocene high‐frequency sea‐level variations were major factors that modulated the type of depositional environments and their evolution. Another major modulating factor was the antecedent morphology of the ria, with a rock‐incised narrow channel in the middle of the basin (the Ferrol Strait), which influenced the evolution of the ria as it became flooded during Holocene transgression. The strait acted as a rock‐bounded ‘tidal inlet’ enhancing the tidal erosion and deposition at both ends, i.e. with an ebb‐tidal delta in the outer sector and tidal sandbanks in the inner sector. The final step in the evolution of the incised valley into the modern‐defined ria system was driven by the last relative sea‐level rise (after 4 kyr bp ) when the river mouths retreated landward and a single palaeoriver was converted into minor rivers and streams with scattered mouths in an extensive coastal area.     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.