Assessing climate change impacts in the European north

Global climate change and its regional manifestation will result in significant impacts in the European North. However, in order to determine the consequences of such impacts, a holistic, integrated assessment is needed. This paper sets the stage for the remainder of this volume by describing an attempt to derive such an assessment for the Barents Sea Region through the EU-funded BALANCE project. The paper explains some of the major methodologies employed in the study. It also provides insight into major results obtained and attempts to answer a number of overarching questions. It will be shown that climate change does present a significant threat to environmental and societal integrity in the study region. However, it will also be shown that stakeholders regard other drivers of future changes (economical, political developments) at least as equally important for their personal lives.     

Luminescence dating of lacustrine sediments from Tangra Yumco (southern Tibetan Plateau) using post‐IR IRSL signals from polymineral grains

Radiocarbon dating of bulk organic matter is the most commonly used method for establishing chronologies of lake sediments for palaeoclimate reconstructions on the Tibetan Plateau. However, this method is likely to be problematic because the dated material often suffers from old carbon contamination. Recently, advances in luminescence‐based chronological techniques have provided new options for dating lacustrine sediments. In the current study, we tested for the first time the applicability of a new post‐IR IRSL (pIRIR) measurement protocol for dating fine‐grained polymineral material from a deep‐lake sediment core from the central part of Tangra Yumco, on the southern Tibetan Plateau. Our results show that: (i) radioactive disequilibria in the uranium decay chain were observed in the studied lake sediments, and thus taken into account for dose rate calculation by using a dynamic modelling approach; (ii) the suitability and robustness of the pIRIR protocol measured at 150°C (pIRIR₁₅₀) for our samples are confirmed by a set of luminescence characteristic tests as well as the agreement with an independent age control; (iii) turbidite deposition partly caused an insufficient resetting of luminescence signals and thus apparent overestimation in luminescence dating; (iv) compared with the luminescence‐based age‐depth model, the ¹⁴C ages of bulk organic matter from the studied core generally yielded an age difference of ～2 ka, which is attributed to hardwater reservoir effects in Tangra Yumco. This study highlights the need for multi‐dating approaches of lake sedimentary archives on the Tibetan Plateau.     

Is groundwater response timing in a pre‐alpine catchment controlled more by topography or by rainfall?

Groundwater levels in steep headwater catchments typically respond quickly to rainfall, but the timing of the response may vary spatially across the catchment. In this study, we investigated the topographic controls and the effects of rainfall and antecedent conditions on the groundwater response timing for 51 groundwater monitoring sites in a 20‐ha pre‐alpine catchment with low permeability soils. The median time to rise and median duration of recession for the 133 rainfall events were highly correlated to the topographic characteristics of the site and its upslope contributing area. The median time to rise depended more on the topographic characteristics than on the rainfall characteristics or antecedent soil wetness conditions. The median time to rise decreased with Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) for sites with TWI < 6 and was almost constant for sites with a higher TWI. The slope of this relation was a function of rainfall intensity. The rainfall threshold for groundwater initiation was also a function of TWI and allowed extrapolation of point measurements to the catchment scale. The median lag time between the rainfall centroid and the groundwater peak was 75 min. The groundwater level peaked before peak streamflow at the catchment outlet for half of the groundwater monitoring sites, but only by 15 to 25 min. The stronger correlations between topographic indices and groundwater response timing in this study compared to previous studies suggest that surface topography affects the groundwater response timing in catchments with low permeability soils more than in catchments with more transmissive soils. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions

Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals.     

Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics

The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum??s streamflow record, only ~45?years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September?CNovember Citarum streamflow (AD 1759?C2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from ~1905?C1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920?C1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country??s rice is grown.     

A SF6 tracer study of horizontal mixing in Lake Constance

Horizontal mixing processes in the hypolimnion of the western part of Lake Constance are studied by measuring the dispersion of a sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) tracer plume. Only 1 liter gaseous SF₆ (STP) was released at a central hypolimnic depth of 60 m in August 1990. Over a period of 3 months the horizontal dispersion of the tracer plume was measured by 19 surveys using a new, vertically integrating sampling device. The observed horizontal dispersion is marked by strong storm-induced stirring events. Nevertheless mean turbulent diffusion coefficients for the whole period can be computed. They rise about linear from 0.7 10⁵ cm²/s to 3.0 10⁵ cm²/s with the distance from the western end of the lake. For the hypolimnion of Überlingersee, a sill-separated basin in the western part of Lake Constance, a simple budget model gives an exchange time of 67 ± 6 days with the main basin (Obersee).     

The post to late glacial valley reconstruction on the Haramosh north side (Mani, Baska and Phuparash valleys)

The post to late glacial valley reconstruction is focused on the Mani- Baska and Phuparash valleys on the Rakaposhi- Haramosh Muztagh in the south Karakoram. The recently glaciated valleys join the Indus valley near Sassi at 1500 m. The knowledge of the tributary valley reconstruction can be seen in the context of the scientific discussion about the extent of glaciation along the main Indus valley. Today, the recent avalanche fed glaciers come down from high lying catchment areas with an average altitude of 6700–6800 m and terminate at 2700 m. Snow line runs at 4700–4800 m in the steep flanks which is common in the Karakoram Mountains. The postglacial extent is marked by the great lateral moraine (GLM) and reached down not more than 2.5–5 km away from the recent glaciers with a calculated snow line depression of 300 m in maximum. It can be shown that the valleys were already glaciated during the lastest Late Glacial down to the valley outlet at 1500 m. The snow line was depressed 600–700 m during that period. A high glacial ice filling of the Haramosh valley and glacial erosion of the flat top of the Darchan ridge as an intermediate valley head is strongly probable.