Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modelling

ABSTRACT

This study presents a systematic illustration quantifying how misleading the calibration results of a groundwater simulation model can be when recharge rates are considered as the model parameters to be estimated by inverse modelling. Three approaches to recharge estimation are compared: autocalibration (Model 1), the empirical return coefficient method (Model 2), and distributed hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT (Model 3). The methodology was applied in the Dehloran Plain, western Iran, using the MODFLOW modular flow simulator and the PEST method for autocalibration. The results indicate that, although Model 1 performed the best in simulating water levels at observation wells in the calibration stage, it did not perform satisfactorily in real future scenarios. Model 3, with SWAT-based recharge rates, performed better than the other models in the validation stage. By not evaluating the model performance solely on calibration results, we demonstrate the relative significance of using more accurate recharge estimates when calibrating groundwater simulation models.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Besbes     

Effect of inertia nonlinearity on dynamic response of an asymmetric building equipped with tuned mass dampers

This study investigates the effect of nonlinear inertia on the dynamic response of an asymmetric building equipped with Tuned Mass Dampers (TMDs). In the field of structural engineering, many researchers have developed models to study the behavior of nonlinear TMDs, but the effect of nonlinear inertia has not received as much attention for asymmetric buildings. To consider nonlinear inertia, the equations of motion are derived in a local rotary coordinates system. The displacements and rotations of the modeled building and TMDs are defined by five-degree-of-freedom (5-DOFs). The equations of motion are derived by using the Lagrangian method. Also in the proposed nonlinear model, the equations of motion are different from a conventional linear model. In order to compare the response of the proposed nonlinear model and a conventional linear model, numerical examples are presented and the response of the modeled buildings are derived under harmonic and earthquake excitations. It is shown that if the nonlinear inertia is considered, the response of the modeled structures changes and the conventional linear approach cannot adequately model the dynamic behavior of the asymmetric buildings which are equipped with TMDs.     

The effect of the Zagros Mountains on the formation and maintenance of the Iran Anticyclone using RegCM4

Iran anticyclone is one of the main features of the summer circulation over the Middle East in the middle and upper troposphere. To examine the effect of the Zagros Mountains on the formation and maintenance of the Iran anticyclone, an experiment was conducted by Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) in an area between 22°?C44°N and 35°?C70°E with a 40?km horizontal grid spacing. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data set were used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions in a control run and in a simulation run by removing the Zagros Mountains. The result reveals that the Zagros Mountains have an important effect on the formation and maintenance of the low-level cyclonic circulation and mid-level anticyclonic circulation in summer. Examining the diabatic heating shows that the elimination of the Zagros Mountains causes a significant change in the heating values and its spatial distributions over the study area. Comparing the diabatic heating terms, the vertical advection term has the main contribution to the total heating. In the absence of the Zagros Mountains, the vertical advection and the mid-troposphere anticyclonic circulation are apparently weak and, therefore, the Iran subtropical anticyclone vanishes over the west of Iran. The study indicates that the Zagros Mountains as an elevated heat source have the main impact in the formation of a thermally driven circulation over the Middle East.     

Allocation of urban land uses by Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm

Considering the ever-increasing urban population, it appears that land management is of major importance. Land uses must be properly arranged so that they do not interfere with one another and can meet each other's needs as much as possible; this goal is a challenge of urban land-use planning. The main objective of this research is to use Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to find the optimum arrangement of urban land uses in parcel level, considering multiple objectives and constraints simultaneously. Geospatial Information System is used to prepare the data and to study different spatial scenarios when developing the model. To optimize the land-use arrangement, four objectives are defined: maximizing compatibility, maximizing dependency, maximizing suitability, and maximizing compactness of land uses. These objectives are characterized based on the requirements of planners. As a result of optimization, the user is provided with a set of optimum land-use arrangements, the Pareto-front solutions. The user can select the most appropriate solutions according to his/her priorities. The method was tested using the data of region 7, district 1 of Tehran. The results showed an acceptable level of repeatability and stability for the optimization algorithm. The model uses parcel instead of urban blocks, as the spatial unit. Moreover, it considers a variety of land uses and tries to optimize several objectives simultaneously.     

Initiation and evolution of fault-controlled slope-parallel submarine channels: Miocene eastern slope of Yinggehai Basin,South China Sea

Submarine channels act as the main conduits for the transport of sediment to deep-water basins by sediment gravity flows. The interplay between fault-related deformation and the initiation and development of the channels is poorly known. Here, we present the identification, formation and evolution of the Miocene slope-parallel channel by employing 3D seismic reflection, wireline-log and core data in the eastern slope of Yinggehai Basin, South China Sea. Based on the lengths and plan-view shapes, a total of three different types of fault-associated slope-parallel depressions have been identified. The depressions were formed in the fault zone and controlled by the reactivation of the underlying older faults. Among them, Type-1 depressions are short (<20 km) oval or circle shaped possessing only one depocenter. Type-2 depressions are elongated (25–70 km), and usually have multiple depocenters. Type-3 depressions, which are usually connected by slope-perpendicular channels in the head and middle, are longer (more than 190 km) and connect shallow and deep-water basins. The analysis of morphology, erosivity and material transport shows that Type-3 depressions are fully fledged channels. Type-1 and Type-2 depressions are channel precursors representing the initial stage of channel evolution. With this motive, a model for the initiation and evolution of slope-parallel submarine channels controlled by strike-slip-extensional faults is presented. Unlike the previous investigations which suggest that erosion takes place at the inception of submarine channel formation, the fault-controlled slope-parallel channel is mainly controlled by faulting and has no initial erosive base and does not develop levees. The depressions are extended and elongated by the continuous fault activity. It was not until the slope-parallel depression connected with large-scale slope-perpendicular channels transporting materials into the depression via erosive turbidity currents that it evolved into a channel-levee system. This study is of global importance for understanding submarine channel generation and evolution since the fault-controlled slope-parallel channels have been found in tectonic active basins worldwide.     

Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar,Iran)

Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5&nbsp;km inland. In this study, we show how climate change...     

Monitoring of dust storm and estimation of aerosol concentration in the Middle East using remotely sensed images

Arabian Journal of Geosciences - Dust storms are one of the major environmental disasters in the arid regions of Middle East, occurring in very high frequency. As a result, monitoring dust storms...     

Forecasting of meteorological drought using Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model for different time steps (case study: southeastern part of east Azerbaijan province, Iran)

Drought is accounted as one of the most natural hazards. Studying on drought is important for designing and managing of water resources systems. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Wavelet-ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques for meteorological drought forecasting in southeastern part of East Azerbaijan province, Iran. The Wavelet-ANN and ANFIS models were first trained using the observed data recorded from 1952 to 1992 and then used to predict meteorological drought over the test period extending from 1992 to 2011. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of root mean squared error coefficient of determination (R ²) and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. In this study, more than 1,000 model structures including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Wavelet-ANN models were tested in order to assess their ability to forecast the meteorological drought for one, two, and three time steps (6 months) ahead. It was demonstrated that wavelet transform can improve meteorological drought modeling. It was also shown that ANFIS models provided more accurate predictions than ANN models. This study confirmed that the optimum number of neurons in the hidden layer could not be always determined using specific formulas; hence, it should be determined using a trial-and-error method. Also, decomposition level in wavelet transform should be delineated according to the periodicity and seasonality of data series. The order of models with regard to their accuracy is as following: Wavelet-ANFIS, Wavelet-ANN, ANFIS, and ANN, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, no research has been published that explores coupling wavelet analysis with ANFIS for meteorological drought and no research has tested the efficiency of these models to forecast the meteorological drought in different time scales as of yet.