两种积云对流参数化方案对1998年区域气候季节变化模拟的影响研究

利用区域气候模式RegCM3,选择Kuo-Anthes积云对流参数化方案和基于FC80假设的Grell积云对流参数化方案,对1998年东亚气候分别进行年尺度模拟,模拟结果对比分析表明:在春、夏季转换时期, 两者模拟的降水形势差别较大, 对江淮、中南和华南地区的夏季降水量模拟差别最为明显。对流层上层模式变量和模式大气质量对积云对流参数化方案的选择不敏感, 而对流层中、下层模式变量对积云对流参数化方案比较敏感。不同积云对流参数化方案对8天时间尺度的天气系统模拟差别比较大。在积云对流比较活跃的夏季,不同参数化方案会导致模式大气出现不同的系统性偏差。由于模式在陡峭地形处动力过程计算方案存在缺陷,在高原与盆地的交界处,模式误差会产生明显的突变。     

全球重要农业文化遗产是否是保护传统农业系统的有效工具——社区认知视角的研究（英文）

联合国粮农组织提出“全球重要农业文化遗产”(Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System,GIAHS)项目来保护重要农业遗产以及有关的景观、生物多样性、知识和文化保护体系。许多国家将这一项目作为维持传统农业系统活态性的政策工具。本研究以浙江兴化垛田全球重要农业文化遗产为案例地,研究这种自上而下政府主导的保护实践是否能够有效推动保护政策实施。研究采用社会调查,在遗产核心区以问卷形式来了解农民对农业系统的理解及其相应的保护意愿。研究发现垛田农业系统作为重要农业文化遗产,仍然面临着人口老化与农业人口外流问题。农民对“全球重要农业文化遗产”概念并不熟悉,很少将其与所依赖的农业系统相联系。他们认为前者是一种能够带来经济收入的头衔,而后者具有值得保护的非经济价值。由于农民认为GIAHS能否带来经济结果存在不确定性,因此认为政府在保护中应当承担主要责任。所以,当GIAHS无法促进农业系统地非经济价值向经济价值转化时,它作为一种保护工具尚未有效地鼓励农民积极参与保护。基于这一研究结果,我们建议GIAHS概念应当与农民认知相匹配,从而为农民提供保护动力。     

晚冰期以来大柴旦盐湖沉积记录的古气候演变及其尘暴事件

选择大柴旦盐湖DCD03沉积剖面柱硼镁石矿层下伏土黄色淤泥质粉砂层为研究对象,基于AMS ~(14)C年代学、岩性地层学、矿物学以及地球化学等研究方法,旨在探讨土黄色湖相淤泥质粉砂沉积记录的尘暴事件,以及重建晚冰期以来西风环流显著影响区的水文气候变化。研究结果表明,DCD03沉积剖面的淤泥质粉砂样品粒度频率曲线呈现为双峰态,主峰(均值10μm)反映了河流作用携带入湖的细粒组分,次峰(32μm)则反映了风力作用以及河流作用等携带入湖的粗粉砂粒组分。大于64μm的砂砾组分可能代表外源风尘物质的输入,由尘暴天气携带入湖。大柴旦地区晚冰期以来依次出现了博令和阿勒罗德暖期(12.94～12.17 cal.ka BP)、新仙女木冷期(12.17～11.37 cal.ka BP)、不稳定的早全新世气候(11.37～8.64 cal.ka BP)以及趋于偏冷干的中全新世早期(8.64～7.39 cal.ka BP)。     

呼伦贝尔沙地沙丘砂来源的定量分析— 逐步判别分析(SDA)在粒度分析方面的应用

以呼伦贝尔沙地砂物质的粒度分析资料为基础,利用两组间的逐步判别分析(SDA) 来筛选决定不同沉积物间差异的主导因子,根据主导因子的个数、Mahalanobis距离D2、通过统计学检验的信度琢等3个因素,来定量地确定两个总体间的相似性大小。分析结果表明:呼伦贝尔沙地的风成沙丘砂主要来源于海拉尔组砂(Q3),但河流冲积砂和古土壤也有不可忽视的作用;在嵯岗镇附近及其以西的海拉尔河下游宽阔河谷中,自然条件下河流冲积砂也可以成为风成沙丘砂的主要沙源。     

INFLUENCE ON NORTHERN PACIFIC STORM TRACK OF EQUATO-RIAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC SSTA DURING WINTER

Singular value decomposition (SVD) is conducted of 15 winter tropical Pacific SST with 500 hPa filtered potential height variance over the northern Pacific storm track. It is shown that the first coupled mode obtained depicts the effect on the track of SSTA over equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Further composite analysis indicates that the SSTA over there during winter can give rise to or invigorate PNA teleconnection response pattern in 500 hPa height field which, in turn, exerts crucial influence on the interannual variability in vigor and east-west displacement of the Pacific storm track, especially over its central and eastern part.     

FY-4A AGRI辐射率资料偏差特征分析及订正试验

风云四号A星（Fengyun-4A,简称FY-4A）作为我国最新一代静止气象卫星,各方面技术指标都体现了“高、精、尖”特色,处于国际领先地位。其上搭载的多通道扫描成像辐射计（Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager,简称AGRI）较上一代静止卫星风云二号的可见光红外自旋扫描辐射仪观测精度更高、扫描时间更短,充分体现AGRI观测资料将有效提高“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的天气预报和灾害预警水平。偏差订正是卫星资料处理的重要环节之一,因此本文通过在WRFDA v3.9.1（Weather Research and Forecasting model’s Data Assimilation v3.9.1）搭建AGRI同化接口,利用RTTOV v11. 3辐射传输模式和GFS全球预报系统（Global Forecast System）分析场研究了FY-4A AGRI红外通道8～14晴空辐射率资料的偏差特征并进行偏差订正对比试验,分析了卫星天顶角对AGRI资料偏差订正的影响,为将来实现AGRI红外通道辐射率资料在中尺度模式中的同化应用奠定基础。结果表明:（1）通道8～10及14为正偏差,通道11～13为负偏差。水汽通道9和10偏差及其标准差相对较小,偏差海陆差异不明显。通道11～14探测高度较低,陆地上观测受地表发射率影响大,质量控制时可剔除这些通道陆地上的观测。（2）各通道偏差随卫星天顶角变化的拟合直线斜率都小于0.035,对比试验结果表明偏差与卫星天顶角的关系不明显,预报因子中无需考虑卫星天顶角的作用。（3）通道8及11～14的偏差随着目标亮温的变化比水汽通道9～10明显,偏差有较强的目标亮温依赖特征。（4）根据分析的偏差特征对2018年5月13日18时（协调世界时,下同）至15日18时进行变分偏差订正试验,系统性偏差得到了有效的订正。     

2013年6月23日江淮地区梅雨锋暴雨的发展和维持机制

利用WRF模式对2013年6月23日江淮地区的梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,并利用模式输出的细网格资料进行诊断分析。结果表明：地面梅雨锋、高低空急流耦合、低层辐合高层辐散以及中层短波槽的配置有利于暴雨的发生发展;暴雨主要由两个中尺度对流系统的发展、维持、合并造成;低层辐合、高层辐散为暴雨提供了动力条件;高温高湿环境为暴雨提供水汽及热力条件。水汽及凝结潜热的诊断分析表明,高空槽的抽吸作用与潜热反馈的配合表现为两个方面,一是向中层输送水汽,使最大凝结发生在中层,加强低层的正涡度中心,二是向高层输送源源不断的热量,避免凝结潜热在中层堆积,有利于不稳定形势和上升运动的维持,从而影响中尺度对流系统的移动和发展。     

Spatio-temporal responses of cropland phenophases to climate change in Northeast China

We investigated the responses of cropland phenophases to changes of agricultural thermal conditions in Northeast China using the SPOT-VGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ten-day-composed time-series data, observed crop phenophases and the climate data collected from 1990 to 2010. First, the phenological parameters, such as the dates of onset-of-growth, peak-of-growth and end-of-growth as well as the length of the growing season, were extracted from the smoothed NVDI time-series dataset and showed an obvious correlation with the observed crop phenophases, including the stages of seedling, heading, maturity and the length of the growth period. Secondly, the spatio-temporal trends of the major thermal conditions (the first date of ≥10℃, the first frost date, the length of the temperature-allowing growth period and the accumulated temperature (AT) of ≥10℃) in Northeast China were illustrated and analyzed over the past 20 years. Thirdly, we focused on the responses of cropland phenophases to the thermal conditions changes. The results showed that the onset-of-growth date had an obvious positive correlation with the first date of ≥10℃ (P < 0.01), especially in the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle and eastern parts of Jilin Province. For the extracted length of growing season and the observed growth period, notable correlations were found in almost same regions (P < 0.05). However, there was no obvious correlation between the end-of-growth date and the first frost date in the study area. Opposite correlations were observed between the length of the growing season and the AT of ≥10℃. In the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle part of Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, the positive correlation coefficients were higher than the critical value of 0.05, whereas the negative correlation coefficients reached a level of 0.55 (P < 0.05) in the middle and southern parts of Heilongjiang Province and some parts of the Sanjiang Plain. This finding indicated that the crop growth periods were shortened because of the elevated temperature; in contrast, the extended growth period usually meant a crop transformation from early- or middle-maturing varieties into middle or late ones.     

Promoting Rural Revitalization through the Conservation of Agricultural Heritage Systems

正The 2~(nd) Conference of the East Asia Research Association for Agricultural Heritage Systems(ERAHS),on the theme of"Rural Revitalization in Marginal Areas:Biodiversity and Traditional Agriculture",was successfully held in Sado City,Japan from June 22~(nd) to 26~(th),2015,which involved more than 120 participants including researchers,government officials,entrepreneurs and journalists from China,Japan,Korea and the Philippines.This conference was organized by ERAHS and     

Agricultural Heritage Systems: A Bridge between Urban and Rural Development

In the early 1990s, China stepped into the stage of rapid urbanization with a flourishing economy and new technological development. Surplus labor from rural areas flooded into cities and became the main force of urban development. However some severe threats to human survival emerged from urbanization, such as over- extensive urban development, excessive resource consumption, ecological degradation, food security and safety risks and social crises. It has become an imperative to balance urban and rural development to achieve greater harmony between nature and society. This paper firstly tried to focus on public dietary change, agricultural industry development, institutional guarantee, ecological restoration, as well as cultural tourism in urban and peri-urban agricultural heritage sites. Then, it established a development model, balanced the urbanization and urban-supported agriculture. This paper proposed “Agricultural heritage systems” as an entry point for balancing the development of urban areas and rural areas. Agricultural heritage systems can inherit local traditional culture, keep the green and organic agriculture cultivation systems, exploit the distinct landscape tourism, and the like for diversified development; In addition, agricultural heritage systems can take full advantage of abundant funds, firm the institutional guarantee and advanced technologies from the nearby urban complex for regurgitation-feeding of rural enterprises. With the help of these strategies, we can achieve the harmony of “Ecological Urban” and “Garden Countryside”.