中国地区硫酸盐气溶胶的分布特征

建立了一个三维欧拉型排放/输送/转化/沉降模式,其主要特点是采用独立的气相化学子模式计算各种不同条件下SO2的转化速率,建立转化率的数据库,直接为欧拉模式调用,并对液相化学和湿清除过程进行了参数化处理。这样使模式既考虑了大气化学过程的非线性,又具有较高的计算效率,能够方便地计算年（季）尺度的硫酸盐气溶胶SO2-4的浓度分布。利用中尺度气象模式MM4和欧拉输送模式模拟了中国地区硫酸盐气溶胶的时空分布,其结果可以方便地应用到考虑硫酸盐气溶胶气候效应的气候模式中去。     

晚冰期以来大柴旦盐湖沉积记录的古气候演变及其尘暴事件

本文选择大柴旦盐湖DCD03沉积剖面柱硼镁石矿层下伏土黄色淤泥质粉砂层为研究对象,基于AMS ₁₄C年代学、岩性地层学、矿物学以及地球化学等研究方法,旨在探讨土黄色湖相淤泥质粉砂沉积记录的尘暴事件,以及重建晚冰期以来西风环流显著影响区的水文气候变化。研究结果表明,DCD03沉积剖面的淤泥质粉砂样品粒度频率曲线呈现为双峰态,主峰(均值10 μm)反映了河流作用携带入湖的细粒组分,次峰(﹥32 μm)则反映了风力作用以及河流作用等携带入湖的粗粉砂粒组分。大于64 μm的砂砾组分可能代表外源风尘物质的输入,由尘暴天气携带入湖。大柴旦地区晚冰期以来依次出现了博令和阿勒罗德暖期(12.94~12.17 cal. ka BP)、新仙女木冷期(12.17~11.37 cal. ka BP)、不稳定的早全新世气候(11.37~8.64 cal. ka BP)以及趋于偏冷干的中全新世早期(8.64~7.39 cal. ka BP)。     

Progresses and Perspectives of the Resource Evaluation Related to Agri-cultural Heritage Tourism

The scientific evaluation of tourism resources is not only an important prerequisite for the development of agri-cultural heritage tourism (AHT), but it can also promote the conservation and management of Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS). With the goal of providing scientific support for the sustainable management of tourism resources, this review systematically analyzes the overall situation, research regions, developmental timeline trends, key fields and hot topics of resource evaluation research related to AHT over 2005-2020. With a comprehensive perspective that incorporates both traditional literature review and quantitative literature review, the study revealed four important aspects of AHT research. (1) Relevant articles could be divided into two phases, a development-oriented period (2005-2012) and a conservation-oriented period (2013-2020). (2) GIAHS accounts for the absolute majority (about 66.7%) of relevant studies. In particular, Longji Terraces System, Hani terraces system and Dong’s Rice-Fish-Duck System were the research hotspots IAHS, and Yunnan, Zhejiang and Guangxi were the research hotspot provinces. (3) Terraced landscapes and tea culture were the most popular themes in tourism resource evaluation, while sports tourism, tea culture tourism and study tours are becoming the new trends in IAHS sites. (4) Research methods have undergone a shift from qualitative to quantitative approaches, and a combination of these two in an interdisciplinary manner is becoming a new research trend. By reviewing and prospecting the relevant literature, this study not only makes a unique contribution to the tourism resource evaluation of IAHS, but also helps to enrich the relevant evaluation theories and further promote the sustainable development of heritage tourism from theoretical and methodological perspectives.     

Balance characteristics of multivariate background error covariances and their impact on analyses and forecasts in tropical and Arctic regions

For variational data assimilation, the background error covariance matrix plays a crucial role because it is strongly linked with the local meteorological features, and is especially dominated by error correlations between different analysis variables. Multivariate background error (MBE) statistics have been generated for two regions, namely the Tropics (covering Indonesia and its neighborhood) and the Arctic (covering high latitudes). Detailed investigation has been carried out for these MBE statistics to understand the physical processes leading to the balance (defined by the forecasts error correlations) characteristics between mass and wind fields for the low and high latitudes represented by these two regions. It is found that in tropical regions, the unbalanced (full balanced) part of the velocity potential (divergent part of wind) contributes more to the balanced part of the temperature, relative humidity, and surface pressure fields as compared with the stream function (rotational part of wind). However, the exact opposite happens in the Arctic. For both regions, the unbalanced part of the temperature field is the main contributor to the balanced part of the relative humidity field. Results of single observation tests and six-hourly data assimilation cycling experiments are consistent with the respective balance part contributions of different fields in the two regions. This study provides an understanding of the contrasting dynamical balance relationship that exists between the mass and wind fields in high- and low-latitude regions. The study also examines the impact of MBE on Weather Research and Forecasting model forecasts for the two regions.     

华北和印度夏季风降水变化的对比分析

 利用华北和印度夏季降水资料,采用趋势分析、小波变换等方法,对两地区夏季风降水进行了对比分析。结果表明：1) 华北和印度夏季风降水量都存在线性减少倾向,但华北更为显著,减少达16 mm/10 a;2) 华北和印度夏季风降水变化都以18 a周期为主,近年都有逐渐缩短的趋势,而印度的这种周期缩短得比华北更快,近年降水变化周期接近15 a;3) 华北和印度夏季风降水变化在1956、1976、1992/1993年发生了趋势转折;4) 华北和印度降水量主要集中在6-9月,夏季风降水特征非常明显,但两地变化特征表现不尽相同。     

中低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温异常年代际变化的时空特征比较

对1955—1998年的夏季次表层(0~400 m)海温进行了EOF分解,对比分析了中低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温的年代际变化特征。结果表明:中纬太平洋夏季次表层海温有2种年代际分布模态:0~160 m表现为PDO型,200~400 m表现为全区一致型;低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温有3种年代际分布模态:0~60 m和300~400 m为全区一致型,80~240 m为东西反向型。太平洋夏季次表层海温异常的年代际变化在中低纬都存在从上而下的时间滞后;而同一层中低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温年代际突变的时间也不一致。     

WRF-Hybrid背景误差协方差调整在台风同化及预报中的应用研究

利用雷达径向风单点试验和2006年8月超强台风"桑美"个例,首先研究了静态背景误差协方差的尺度化因子和方差在台风系统雷达资料同化中对台风路径和强度预报的影响。结果表明:在高时空分辨率的雷达资料同化中,较小的尺度化因子能显著改进对台风路径的预报;尺度化因子的影响比方差的影响更为显著。基于上述实验结果,进一步研究了WRFDA-Hybrid系统中"流依赖"控制变量的水平局地化和垂直局地化对台风预报的影响。试验结果表明:当"流依赖"的水平局地化距离与静态背景误差协方差的尺度化因子具有等效影响范围的时候,WRFDA-Hybrid能够得到比较合理的分析结果。同时针对雷达观测资料的空间分布特征,本文提出了一种新的基于雷达探测高度的垂直局地化方案,对台风的强度和路径预报均有显著的改进。     

AVHRR分裂窗算法反演高山草甸地表温度精度评估

利用理塘县高山草甸地表温度实测数据,分析6种常用AVHRR分裂窗算法的精度,为青藏高原地区地表温度的卫星反演提供技术支持.结果表明：6种常用AVHRR分裂窗算法反演地表温度与实测值之间有很好的线性正相关关系,反演温度与实测温度最大偏差3.36K,最大平均绝对误差2.25k,最小平均绝对误差0.77K.给出了反演高山草甸地表温度的AVHRR分裂窗算法建议.     

Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR方法同化多普勒雷达速度观测资料Ⅰ:模拟资料试验

利用WRF(Weather research and forecasting)模式及模式模拟的资料,采用Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR(ensemble transform Kalman filter-three-dimensional variational data assimilation)方法同化模拟雷达观测资料。该混合同化方法将集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ensemble transform Kalman filter)得到的集合样本扰动通过转换矩阵直接作用到背景场上,利用顺序滤波的思想得到分析扰动场;然后通过增加额外控制变量的方式把"流依赖"的集合协方差信息引入到变分目标函数中去,在3DVAR框架基础下与观测数据进行融合,从而给出分析场的最优估计。试验结果表明,Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR同化方法相比传统3DVAR可以提供更为准确的分析场,Hybrid方法雷达资料初始化模拟的台风涡旋结构与位置比3DVAR更加接近"真实场",对台风路径预报也有明显改进。通过对比Hybrid S试验与Hybrid F试验发现,Hybrid的正效果主要来源于混合背景误差协方差中的"流依赖"信息,集合平均场代替确定性背景场带来的效果并不显著。     

复杂地形下C波段雷达定量降水估计算法

C波段雷达定量降水估计(QPE)精度受到很多因素的影响,主要包括:(1)雷达标定,(2)非气象回波的干扰,(3)降水物垂直空间变化,(4)地形或地物的严重遮挡,(5)Z-R关系的代表性,(6)雷达拼图的质量,(7)雷达观测回波衰减等.文中雷达定量降水估计算法基于陕西省C波段天气雷达展开,从雷达探测数据质量控制、地形遮挡...