Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020※

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ), and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, based on the Met Office GloSea5 system. The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation. The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong, consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months. However, the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period, leading to observed values that lie outside the 95％ prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts. The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall, whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast, but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured. This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.     

Radiolarites et sédiments hypersiliceux océaniques: une comparaison

The mineralogical and chemical composition of Jurassic radiolarian cherts has been studied in Morocco (Rif), Italy (Lombardy basin and Apennines), Greece (Pindus zone and Vourinos Massif), some in close association with ophiolites. We have compared these samples with Cretaceous cherts from the NW Pacific (Leg 32) and with Cenozoic diatomaceous oozes from the Sea of Japan (Leg 31). The silica in the radiolarian cherts is quartz or chalcedony. Most of these rocks also contain feldspars and hematite while the clay fraction is composed of illite and/or chlorite generally associated with swelling clays and, locally, with kaolinite. In oceanic sediments all mineralogical species of silica have been detected (from opal to quartz), the clays generally being the same as those of the radiolarian cherts, the feldspars also being present. Based on the chemical composition of the radiolarian cherts, three facies can be distinguished: massive cherts, pelitic radiolarites and ferruginous radiolarites, the latter occurring only near the contact with volcanic basement. The chemical composition of cherts and diatom oozes from the Pacific is very close to the composition of radiolarian cherts. Although the mineralogy of radiolarian cherts can be related to several models (detrital, diagenesis of pelagic clays etc.) the detrital origin of part of the clay fraction seems certain. The origin of silica and its relation to the palaeolatitudes and the relatively confined nature of the Tethys oceans as well as the influence of volcanic inputs are evaluated, Chemical and mineralogical composition of radiolarian cherts shows that the diagenesis of the clay fraction is not a significant source of silica. Accumulation of diatom oozes in the Sea of Japan and in other areas, shows that the distance from continents and very deep seas are not essential to the development of siliceous sedimentation.     

GENTILE IMPRESSIONS OF SALT LAKE CITY,UTAH, 1849–1870*

ABSTRACT. The landscape of Salt Lake City, Utah, drew considerable comment between 1849 and 1870 from non-Mormon travelers. These experiences, chiefly of overland emigrants, foreign travelers, and military personnel, include first impressions, feelings on entry, and later reactions. The setting, material landscape, Mormon citizenry, and travelers' attitudes toward early Salt Lake City Mormon customs and institutions are discussed.     

The spectra of singular values in a regional model

Large portions of the spectra of singular values are determined for both moist and dry versions of a tangent linear, regional model for 4 different synoptic cases. Norms considered include the usual energy norm and versions of a norm measuring only the energy in some set of rotational mode perturbations. At most, only a few percent of the singular vectors possible with any of the norms are growing ones. Inclusion of moist physics in the tangent linear model greatly affects the leading singular vectors but does not increase the number of growing singular vectors much. Most singular vectors are damping ones, and therefore random perturbations drawn from a white‐noise distribution will likely damp during the 24‐h forecast periods considered. Only a few singular vectors are required to explain a significant portion of the final‐time variance of such perturbations, however, because the leading singular values are so large compared with the rest. The truncated rotational mode norm is shown to be very useful for investigating these properties.     

Inferred variables in data assimilation: quantifying sensitivity to inaccurate error statistics

The ability of data assimilation systems to infer unobserved variables has brought major benefits to atmospheric and oceanographic sciences. Information is transferred from observations to unobserved variables in two ways: through the temporal evolution of the predictive equations (either a forecast model or its adjoint) or through an error covariance matrix (or a parametrized approximation to the error covariance). Here, it is found that high frequency information tends to flow through the former route, low frequency through the latter. It is also noted that using the Kalman Filter analysis to estimate the correlation between the observed and unobserved variables can lead to a biased result because of an error correlation: this error correlation is absent when the Kalman Smoother is used.     

A Holocene seabird record from Raffles Sø sediments, East Greenland, in response to climatic and oceanic changes

A 3.5-m-long sediment sequence from a lake on Raffles Ø, off Liverpool Land, East Greenland, was investigated for chronology, lithology, palynology and biogeochemistry. Radiocarbon-dating of plant remains and the lithology of the sediment succession indicate continuous sedimentation since deglaciation of the area prior to 10000 cal. yr BP. The postglacial palynological record shows little variation and evidence of a wind-transported pollen supply, both resulting from the geographical characteristics of Raffles Ø. Significant variations in the biogeochemical data reflect changes in aquatic bioproduction. These changes depend to some extent on climatic changes; however, they are mainly due to variations in seabird breeding colonies in the catchment which influence nutrient and cadmium supply to the lake. Large seabird breeding colonies were present between 7500 and 1900, from 1000 to 500, and since c. 100 cal. yr BP. Their absence prior to 7500 cal. yr BP may be the result of unsuitable feeding conditions close to Raffles Ø caused by a too dense or too open sea-ice cover. In contrast, between 1900 and 1000 and from 500 to 100 cal. yr BP, the seabird settlement was probably restricted by an insufficiently long breeding season due to cold climate conditions in East Greenland.     

LINKS BETWEEN PROGLACIAL STREAM SUSPENDED SEDIMENT DYNAMICS,GLACIER HYDROLOGY AND GLACIER MOTION AT MIDTDALSBREEN,NORWAY

Two-hourly suspended sediment concentration variations observed during the summer of 1987 in the proglacial stream draining Midtdalsbreen, Norway are modelled using multiple regression and time series techniques. Suspended sediment fluctuations are influenced by stream discharge variations, diurnal hysteresis effects, medium-term sediment supply and transport variations and the recent suspended sediment concentration history of the stream. They do not appear to be influenced by seasonal exhaustion or rainfall variations. Possible reasons for this are discussed. Large positive residuals from the fitted models are major pulses of suspended sediment unrelated to discharge variations; these sediment flushes correlate with periods of enhanced glacier motion. They cannot be explained by enhanced sediment production by subglacial erosion, but are probably due to the tapping of subglacially stored sediment during sudden changes in the hydraulics and/or configuration of the subglacial hydrological system. Seasonal changes in the lag between glacier motion peaks and suspended sediment flushes suggest that the subglacial hydrological system evolves over the summer from a distributed to a more channelized configuration.