Spatial variation of seismic motion induced by propagation of body waves

Spatial variation of earthquake ground motion is an important phenomenon that cannot be ignored in the design and safety of strategic structures. Several models have been developed to describe this variation using statistical, mathematical or physical approaches. The latter approach is not specific to an event. A recent contribution, which uses such an approach and called complete stochastic deamplification approach (CSDA), was developed [1]. The aim of this paper is to analyze the spatial variation of earthquake motion induced by the propagation of body waves using the CSDA. Coherency functions are evaluated for the cases of SH–SV–P waves propagating through stratified soil. Results obtained show that the variation of the coherency function is not the same for vertical and horizontal components and that the motion is more coherent at depth than at the free surface. In fact, we found that the rate of decrease with frequency and distance is not the same if P–SV waves propagate through stratified soil.     

Lateral structural variability in zone of eocene island-arc-continent collision,Kamchatka

The lateral variability of structural elements in the collision zone of the Cretaceous-Paleocene Achaivayam-Valagin island arc with the northeastern Asian margin is considered. The similarity and difference of Eocene collision structural elements in the north and the south of Kamchatka are shown. In northern Kamchatka, the continent-arc boundary is traced along the Lesnaya-Vatyn Thrust Fault, which completed its evolution about 45 Ma ago. The thin, near-horizontal allochthon of this thrust, composed of island-arc rocks, overlies the deformed but unmetamorphosed terrigeneous sequences of the Asian margin. The general structure of this suture in the Kamchatka Isthmus and southern Koryakia is comparable with the uppermost subduction zone, where a thin lithospheric wedge overlaps intensely deformed sediments detached from the plunging plate. In southern Kamchatka (Malka Uplift of the Sredinny Range), the arc-continent collision started 55–53 Ma ago with thrusting of island-arc complexes over terrigenous rocks of continental margin. However, the thickness of the allochthon was much greater than in the north. Immediately after this event, both the autochthon and lower part of allochthon were deformed and subsided to a significant depth. This subsidence gave rise to metamorphism of both the autochthon (Kolpakov and Kamchatka groups, Kheivan Formation) and lower allochthon (Andrianovka and Khimka formations). The anomalously fast heating of the crust was most likely related to the ascent of asthenospheric masses due to slab breakoff, when the Eurasian Plate was plunging beneath the Achaivayam-Valagin arc.     

The gawler ranges,South Australia: an unusual volcanic massif

The volcanic residuals of the Gawler Ranges together form an extensive massif that in its gross morphology differs markedly from most exposures of silicic volcanic rocks. The upland developed in two stages, the first involving differential fracture‐controlled subsurface weathering, the second the stripping of the regolith. As a result, an irregular weathering front was exposed, with domical projections prominent. These bornhardts are etch forms, and they are of considerable antiquity.

The differential weathering of the rock mass reflects the exploitation of various fracture systems by shallow groundwaters. Orthogonal fracture systems at various scales, sheet fractures and columnar joints control the morphology of the bornhardts in gross and in detail.

The exploitation of the structural base, which was established in the Middle Protero‐zoic, probably took place throughout the Late Proterozoic and the Palaeozoic, though only minor remnants of the Proterozoic land surface remain. The major landscape features developed during the Mesozoic. The weathering which initiated the bornhardts occurred in the Jurassic or earlier Mesozoic, and the landforms were exposed in Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary times.

Though structural forms dominate the present landscape, some major and some minor landforms are best explained in terms of climatic changes of the later Cainozoic. The palaeodrainage system, established under humid conditions by the Early Tertiary, was alluviated during the Cainozoic arid phases, and salinas were formed. The sand dunes of the region also reflect this aridity.     

Potential impact of ash eruptions on dairy farms from a study of the effects on a farm in eastern Bay of Plenty,New Zealand; implications for hazard mitigation

This paper investigates the impact ash fall would have on dairy farming, based on a study of ‘Tulachard’, a dairy farming operation at Rerewhakaaitu, North Island, New Zealand. It includes analysis of the potential effects on the dairy shed and milking machine, electrical supply and distribution, water supply and distribution, tractors and other farm vehicles, farm buildings (haysheds, pump sheds, implement sheds, etc.), milk-tanker access to the farm and critical needs of dairy cows and farm to keep milking. One of the most vulnerable areas identified in the study was the cooling of milk at the milking shed, pending dairy tanker pick-up. The cooling system’s condenser is exposed to the atmosphere and falling ash would make it highly vulnerable. Laboratory testing with wet and dry ash was conducted to determine its resilience to ash ingestion. It was found to perform satisfactorily during dry testing, but during wet testing significant clogging/blocking of the condenser’s radiator occurred, dramatically reducing airflow through the condenser. Specific mitigation recommendations have been developed that include cleaning with compressed air and adapting farm management techniques to lessen usage of the condenser during an ash-fall event. Specific recommendations for management of dairy farm operation are given to mitigate the effects of an ash-fall event.

Increased Terrestrial to Ocean Sediment and Carbon Fluxes in the Northern Chesapeake Bay Associated With Twentieth Century Land Alteration

We calculated Chesapeake Bay (CB) sediment and carbon fluxes before and after major anthropogenic land clearance using robust monitoring, modeling and sedimentary data. Four distinct fluxes in the estuarine system were considered including (1) the flux of eroded material from the watershed to streams, (2) the flux of suspended sediment at river fall lines, (3) the burial flux in tributary sediments, and (4) the burial flux in main CB sediments. The sedimentary maximum in Ambrosia (ragweed) pollen marked peak land clearance (~1900 a.d.). Rivers feeding CB had a total organic carbon (TOC)/total suspended solids of 0.24?±?0.12, and we used this observation to calculate TOC fluxes from sediment fluxes. Sediment and carbon fluxes increased by 138–269% across all four regions after land clearance. Our results demonstrate that sediment delivery to CB is subject to significant lags and that excess post-land clearance sediment loads have not reached the ocean. Post-land clearance increases in erosional flux from watersheds, and burial in estuaries are important processes that must be considered to calculate accurate global sediment and carbon budgets.     

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Applying the HAZUS-MH software tool to assess seismic risk in downtown Ottawa,Canada

The aim of this paper is to present earthquake loss estimations for a portion of downtown Ottawa, Canada, using the HAZUS-MH (Hazards United States Multi-Hazard) software tool. The assessment is performed for a scenario earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5, at an epicentral distance of 15 km, occurring during business hours. A level 2 HAZUS-MH analysis was performed where the building inventory, microzonation studies, and site-specific ground motion hazard maps (2% exceedence probability in 50 years) were all improved based on local information. All collected data were assembled into a set of standard geodatabases that are compatible with the HAZUS-MH software using a GIS-specific procedure. The results indicate that the greatest losses are expected in unreinforced masonry buildings and commercial buildings. Sensitivity studies show that soil classes, the vulnerability of schools, and the spatial scale of loss estimations are also important factors to take into account.     

Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. A real-time turbulence model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of hazardous aviation turbulence environments

Summary In this paper, we will focus on the real-time prediction of environments that are predisposed to producing moderate-severe (hazardous) aviation turbulence. We will describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system that is designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that simple hydrostatic precursor circulations organize regions of preferred wave breaking and turbulence at the nonhydrostatic scales of motion. This will be demonstrated with a hydrostatic numerical modeling system, which can be run in real time on a very inexpensive university computer workstation employing simple forecast indices. The forecast system is designed to efficiently support forecasters who are directing research aircraft to measure the environment immediately surrounding turbulence. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real-time on a university workstation in support of NASA-Langley’s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The model horizontal resolutions are 60, 30, and 15 km and the grids are centered over the region of operational NASA-Langley B-757 turbulence flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross section plot products are provided from 16,000–46,000 feet in 2,000 feet intervals. Products are available every three hours at the 60 and 30 km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15 km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.     

Role of land-surface temperature feedback on model performance for the stable boundary layer

At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme, in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role.