The extreme precipitation events caused by climate change and the rapid development of urbanization have brought hidden flood risks to the cities. This paper comprehensively considered two major factors of vulnerability of urban flood-bearing and disaster prevention and mitigation (DPAM) capacity and built a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban flood-bearing risks. Secondly, a combined model consisted of composite fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model was constructed to calculate the comprehensive risk indicator. Finally, the Zhengzhou City was taken as an example, the comprehensive indices of urban flood-bearing risk from 2006 to 2015 were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of Zhengzhou City was generally on a slow upward trend, from II level (moderate-risk) in 2006 to III level (secondary high-risk) in 2015, which was mainly due to the mismatch between the rapid development of urbanization and the slow improvement of DPAM capabilities. This paper is expected to provide scientific reference and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and sponge city construction.
In this paper, a model is proposed to simulate frost jacking performances of a pile foundation within an axisymmetric pile–soil system through a coupling strategy. We consider three diversified stages for frost heave of adjacent foundation soil below freezing point, where mathematical expressions for the volumetric strain are given in terms of volumetric ice content, negative temperature and porosity. A modified strain-softening model characterizing frozen soil–pile interactions is established based on experimental results, taking into account the effects of normal pressure, negative temperature and moisture content. The proposed computational approach is then illuminated and validated via the numerical example of a simplified bridge pile foundation under natural permafrost condition. Variation of temperature regime, volumetric ice content, displacement and stress over time is analyzed. This model can be further applied to evaluating effects of different countermeasures that mitigate frost jacking hazard of single pile subjected to cold climate.
A key solution to urban and global sustainability is effective planning of sustainable urban development, for which geo-techniques especially cellular automata (CA) models can be very informative. However, existing CA models for simulating sustainable urban development, though increasingly refined in modeling urban growth, capture mostly the environmental aspect of sustainability. In this study, an adaptable risk-constrained CA model was developed by incorporating the social-ecological risks of urban development. A three-dimensional risk assessment framework was proposed that explicitly considers the environmental constraints on, system resilience to, and potential impacts of urban development. The risk-constrained model was then applied to a case study of Sheyang County, Jiangsu Province in the eastern China. Comparative simulations of urban development in four contrasting scenarios were conducted, namely, the environmental suitability constrained scenario, the ecological risk constrained scenario, the social risk constrained scenario, and the integrated social-ecological risk constrained scenario. The simulations suggested that considering only environmental suitability in the CA simulation of urban development overestimated the potential of sustainable urban growth, and that the urbanization mode changed from city expansion that was more constrained by social risks to town growth that was more constrained by ecological risks. Our risk-constrained CA model can better simulate sustainable urban development; additionally, we provide suggestions on the sustainable urban development in Sheyang and on future model development. 相似文献
The Chinese government adopted six ecological restoration programs to improve its natural environments. Although these programs have proven successful in improving local environments, some studies have questioned their performance when regions suffer from drought. Whether we should consider the effects of drought on vegetation change in assessments of the benefits of ecological restoration programs is unclear. Therefore, taking the Grain for Green Program(GGP) region as a study area, we estimated vegetation growth in the region from 2000–2010 to clarify the trends in vegetation and their driving forces. Results showed that: 1) vegetation growth increased in the GGP region during 2000–2010, with 59.4% of the area showing an increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI). This confirmed the benefits of the ecological restoration program. 2) Drought can affect the vegetation change trend, but human activity plays a significant role in altering vegetation growth, and the slight downward trend in the NDVI was not consistent with the severity of the drought. Positive human activity led to increased NDVI in 89.13% of areas. Of these, 22.52% suffered drought, but positive human activity offset the damage in part. 3) Results of this research suggest that appropriate human activity can maximize the benefits of ecological restoration programs and minimize the effects of extreme weather. We therefore recommend incorporating eco-risk assessment and scientific management mechanisms in the design and management of ecosystem restoration programs. 相似文献
