Proposal for a soil classification based on parameters alternative or complementary to Vs,30

The selection of specific elastic response spectra according to soil categories is the easiest way to account for site effects in engineering projects and general-purpose hazard maps. Most of the international seismic codes make use of the average shear wave velocity of the upper 30 m (Vs_,30) to discriminate soil categories, although some doubts arose about the capability of Vs_,30 to predict actual soil amplification. In this work we propose two soil classifications in which the soil fundamental frequency (f₀) becomes either an alternative or a complement to Vs_,30. The performance of the derived categorizations is achieved through the estimation of the standard deviation associated to ground motion prediction equations of acceleration response spectra, considering recordings extracted from the Italian strong motion data base. The results indicate that there is a significant reduction of the standard deviation when the classification is based on the couple of variables Vs_,30–f₀, although a classification based of the single f₀ also leads to satisfactory results, comparable with those obtained assuming a classification scheme based on Vs_,30.     

Rock falls induced by earthquakes: a statistical approach

During September and October 1997 a seismic sequence of moderate magnitude struck the Umbria and Marche regions, central Italy. As a consequence of the main shocks several rock falls were triggered along the flanks of the Valnerina valley, an important canyon formed by the erosion of the Nera river on limestone formations. This landslide data set was used to explore the correlation existing among rock falls and several causal factors, like slope angle, geology and strong ground motion parameters. All the data have been digitised and georeferenced with the aid of a Geographic Information System in the form of digital thematic layers. The landslide inventory has been overlaid to the maps of causal factors, and the result arranged in order to create a data structure suitable to perform a multivariate statistics. A multiple regression allowed to formulate a predictive rule that can be used to produce a rock fall susceptibility map in case of an earthquake, in regions with similar geologic and geomorphologic characteristics.     

Slope vulnerability to earthquakes at subregional scale, using probabilistic techniques and geographic information systems

The susceptibility of slopes to failure during earthquakes is calculated, in terms of critical horizontal acceleration, on a subregional scale for the upper part of the Serchio River basin (Tuscany, Italy). According to the working scale (1:10 000) and to the availability and accuracy of the input data, the infinite slope analysis was judged to be the most appropriate method, but particular attention was devoted to the error evaluation due to spatial variability of the geotechnic, geometric, and hydrologic parameters. A geologic, geomorphologic and hydrologic survey of the area was therefore performed, and the geotechnic parameters were collected at local administrations. All the data were stored in a GIS, used as a tool to build the spatial and attribute data base and to prepare the input data layers for the stability analysis. In order to assess the variability of geotechnic parameters, a statistical analysis was performed to assign the best-fitting probability distribution to cohesion, angle of internal friction and unit weight of the soil. As hydrogeologic data were not available for the area, only surface hydrology information could be used; a map of probability of spring occurrences was derived by a bayesian method, the Weight of Evidence Modelling, and was used as groundwater indicator. A Monte Carlo procedure and a first-order second-moment method were applied and compared as error estimators in assessing the slope susceptibility to failure. The differences between the two methods are discussed, and two maps showing, respectively, the critical horizontal acceleration and the probability of failure associated with each slope are presented, together with the curve plotting the reliability index against the probability of failure.     

Italian accelerometric archive: geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations at strong-motion stations

Geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations, for the characterization of the strong-motion recording sites managed by the Italian Civil Protection, have been carried out in the framework of the project “Italian strong-motion database in the period 1972–2004”. The project aimed at creating an updated database of strong-motion data acquired in Italy by different institutions in the time span 1972–2004, and at improving the quality of disseminated data. This article illustrates the state of the recording site characterization before the beginning of the project, explains the criteria adopted to select the sites where geophysical/geotechnical investigation have been performed and describes the results of the promoted field surveys.     

Hydrogeological Changes Related to the Umbria–Marche Earthquake of 26 September 1997 (Central Italy)

Evidences of variations of the hydrologic regime have been observed after the Umbria–Marche seismic sequence, started on September 26th 1997, at the boundary between Umbria and Marche regions, central Italy. In order to quantify the hydrological variations, several data regarding groundwater level, spring discharge and river flow rates, have been collected from local authorities and mineral water companies. They allowed to confine the area affected by anomalies and to quantify the hydrological variations by a comparison with the average yearly regime, estimated from the data referring to previous years. An attempt to identify precursor phenomena has also been carried out. The results of the analysis sustain the close connection of two water reservoirs, the Umbria–Marche ridge and the Valnerina unit, that have both been affected by changes of the hydrologic regime. Two of the river gauge stations registered anomalies several months before the crisis started, acting as earthquake precursors.     

日常活动视角下居民健康影响的性别差异——以广州为例

中国城市化转型背景下,居民的公共健康成为城市地理研究的一个热点。越来越多研究关注健康的性别差异,但基于日常活动视角分析居民健康的影响因素和路径的性别差异研究较为缺乏。因此,作者尝试通过构建结构方程模型探讨不同性别群体居民属性、建成环境、日常活动对健康影响的差异。研究发现：全职男性、全职女性与非全职女性的自评健康存在显著差异,得分依次降低;健康影响因素和影响路径存在性别差异,女性日常活动受到更多约束,其健康更大程度受所住社区周边建成环境和日常活动的影响;女性亚群体之间的健康及影响路径也存在差异;在考虑居民健康性别差异的同时,需要重视就业状况对健康的影响。日常活动视角能揭示居民属性和建成环境对健康影响的路径,有助于理解居民健康影响的性别差异。本文拓宽了健康影响因素的研究框架,对转型背景下改善建成环境,减少日常活动约束,关注健康的性别差异具有重要的现实意义。     

ZG市工作日地铁站点扒窃案件的时空分布及其影响因素

以东南沿海城市ZG市为例,分析工作日地铁扒窃案件的时空分布特征,并进一步结合日常活动理论,探讨其形成机理。研究发现：① 时空分布上,地铁扒窃案件存在早晚2 个峰值,但滞后于地铁客流量高峰;白天,地铁扒窃主要集中在中心城区,在早晚时段,除中心城区外,地铁扒窃在城郊地区也有较多分布。② 影响因素上,地铁扒窃主要受到客流量及建成环境的影响,不同时段影响的因素存在差异。客流量及换乘点在地铁运营的任意时段均对地铁扒窃有正向的影响,地铁站周边的休闲场所对地铁扒窃犯罪的影响主要体现在9:00以后的时段。居住地及工作地虽然整体上对地铁扒窃没有显著影响,但是他们对地铁扒窃案件的作用方向在各时段模型中的作用力度均相反。③ 影响强度上,客流量在不同时段对地铁扒窃的影响强度存在差异,而换乘点及休闲场所在显著的时间段对地铁扒窃的影响力度并无明显差别。     

盗窃者犯罪出行距离的特征及其影响因素——基于居住社区、作案社区及出行物理障碍的综合考虑

从犯罪出行距离的角度研究犯罪行为,有助于更好地理解犯罪发生的机理。已有研究主要探讨作案社区的特征对犯罪者出行距离的影响,尚未综合考虑作案地、居住社区与作案社区差异及出行物理障碍(physical barrier)影响。论文以中国南方某特大城市为例,构建考虑个体层与作案社区层特征的多层线性回归模型,探究盗窃者犯罪出行距离的影响因素。研究发现：(1)相比作案社区层,个体层的变量对犯罪出行距离的影响更大;(2)出行物理障碍变量会提高模型的解释力,犯罪出行跨越的物理障碍越多,则出行距离越远,且它会影响作案社区中地铁、超市、银行对犯罪出行距离的作用;(3)居住社区与作案社区之间的环境差异对犯罪出行距离有影响,居住社区中的公交站、学校、超市越多,地铁站越少,犯罪者的出行距离越近。研究结论可以为犯罪者的地理画像与警务防控提供理论支撑。