1997年9月26日意大利中部Umbria-marche地震前的水文地质变化

分析了1997年9月26日意大利中部Umbria与marche交界地区的Umbria-marche地震序列引起的水文体系的变化。为了量化水文体系的变化,从地方当局和矿泉水公司收集了地下水位、泉水的流量以及河水流速等的资料,这些资料可以确定异常的影响面积,并且可以通过与从震前几年资料估算出的年平均体系的对比来量化异常的变化,试图对异常进行判定。分析结果表明,两个含水单元,即Umbria-marche山峰和Val-nerina单元,具有紧密的联系,它们都由于水文系统的改变而受到影响。地震前几个月两条河流测量站记录到了异常变化,认为是地震前兆异常。     

Applications of statistical and GIS techniques to slope instability zonation (1: 50.000 Fabriano geological map sheet)

The aim of this work is the evaluation of the vulnerability of landslides in static, pseudostatic and dynamic conditions, to produce slope instability maps. A deterministic approach, using a GIS, (ILWIS 1.4 — The Integrated Land and Water Information System User's Manual, Enschede, 1993, The Netherlands) is presented. The analysis in static and pseudostatic conditions, using the infinite slope: analysis and the ordinary slice method, is carried out and the values of Fs (factor of safety) and Kc (coefficient of critical horizontal acceleration) are evaluated; the analysis in dynamic condition is performed, using Newmark's method, (Geotechnique, 1965, 23, 139-60), and the value of the final displacement during the application of an accelerogram is calculated. The applied methodologies and the results for the area corresponding to the NE sector of the 1:50.000 “Fabriano” (Marche Region, Italy) geological map sheet, are presented.     

入室盗窃临近重复案件与孤立案件分布的影响因素对比研究

以中国南方某特大城市YP区为例,结合犯罪地理学主要理论选取相关变量构建二元逻辑回归模型,探讨区域环境对入室盗窃临近重复案件和孤立案件分布的影响差异。研究发现：居民数量、银行&ATM机和公园集聚的区域发生临近重复案件的概率比孤立案件更高,而道路密度高的社区难以发生临近重复案件;青少年人口比重高和低租金住户多的社区会加剧弱势群体、问题人群的集中趋势,临近重复犯罪发生的可能性也会随之上升,其中青少年人口的影响程度高于低租金住户。研究结果可对微观社区层面入室盗窃临近重复犯罪的治安防控与警务政策制定提供一定的参考。     

Wind storm risk management: sensitivity of return period calculations and spread on the territory

Modeling and forecasting damage from wind storms is a major issue for insurance companies. In this article, we focus on the sensitivity of estimations of return periods for extreme events with respect to modeling assumptions and the type of input data. Numerous variables play a role: the quality of data concerning the location of insured buildings and weather report homogeneity, missing updates for correcting non-stationarities concerning the insurance portfolio history, ground roughness or climate change, the evolution of the model after an unprecedented event such as the Lothar storm observed in 1999 in Europe, temporal aggregation of daily events over several days, where events could span over several days up to one week, and storm trajectories, which could change due to global warming or sweep larger areas. Our work explores three important aspects. First, we highlight the geographic heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of wind speeds and the resulting damages. Therefore, we propose to partition the French territory into 6 relatively homogeneous storm zones, based on the dependence among observed wind speeds and geographic distance. Second, we extend a storm index—defined in Mornet et al. (Risk Anal 35:2029–2056, 2015)—to take into account geographic heterogeneity, and we analyze its tail behavior to show the difficulties met to obtain reliable results on extreme events. Third, we explore the calculation of Solvency Capital Requirements based on a model that we propose for the annual claim amount distribution. The purpose of our analysis is to quantify and to point out the high level of uncertainty in the computation of return periods and of other quantities strongly influenced by extreme events.     

Characteristics of strong ground motion data recorded in the Gubbio sedimentary basin (Central Italy)

Various authors, analysing the set of accelerograms recorded at Gubbio Piana (GBP) (central Italy), have demonstrated that strong amplification occurs at this accelerometric station, which is installed within an alluvial basin. In particular, Ambraseys et al. [(2005a), Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53; (2005b), Bull Earth Eng 3:55–73] observed that the strong motion peaks at GBP greatly exceed the median values predicted by the attenuation relationships they derived for Europe. In this work, we analyse and discuss some characteristics of the ground motion recorded at the GBP station. We show that the ground motion parameters, such as peak-ground acceleration and peak-ground velocity, are strongly influenced by the presence of locally induced surface waves that produce both a lengthening of the significant shaking duration and an increase in the peak values with respect to a nearby bedrock site. The basin-induced surface waves are observed in the three components of motion and their effects on the peak values are particularly evident in the vertical component. In the frequency domain, the energy of the surface waves is mostly restricted to the frequency band 0.4–0.8 Hz for both the horizontal and vertical components. The horizontal and vertical Fourier amplitudes are also very similar, and this indicates that the H/V spectral ratio technique is not applicable to describing the site response due to the propagation of seismic wave in a complex 2D/3D geological structure. Finally, a preliminary polarization analysis shows that the directions of polarization, as well as the degree of elliptical polarization, exhibit a strong variability with time, that may be related to a complex propagation of Love and Rayleigh waves within the basin.     

Overview of the Italian strong motion database ITACA 1.0

The Italian Strong Motion Database, ITACA, was developed within projects S6 and S4, funded in the framework of the agreements between the Italian Department of Civil Protection (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, DPC) and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), starting from 2005. The alpha version of the database was released in 2007 and subsequently upgraded to version 1.0 after: (i) including the most recent strong motion data (from 2005 to 2007) recorded in Italy, in addition to the 2008 Parma earthquake, M 5.4, and the M ≥  4.0, 2009 Abruzzo seismic events; (ii) processing the raw strong motion data using an updated procedure; (iii) increasing the number of stations with a measured shear wave velocity profile; (iv) improving the utilities to retrieve time series and ground motion parameters; (v) implementing a tool for selecting time series in agreement with design-response spectra; (vi) compiling detailed station reports containing miscellaneous information such as photo, maps and site parameters; (vii) developing procedures for the automatic generation of station reports and for the updating of the header files. After such improvements, ITACA 1.0 was published at the web site , in 2010. It presently contains 3,955 three-component waveforms, comprising the most complete catalogue of the Italian accelerometric records in the period 1972–2007 (3,562 records) and the strongest events in the period 2008–2009. Records were mainly acquired by DPC through its Accelerometric National Network (RAN) and, in few cases, by local networks and temporary stations or networks. This paper introduces the published version of the Italian Strong Motion database (ITACA version 1.0) together with main improvements and new functionalities.     

Evaluation of site effects in the Aterno river valley (Central Italy) from aftershocks of the 2009 L��Aquila earthquake

A temporary network of 33 seismic stations was deployed in the area struck by the 6th April 2009, Mw 6.1 (Scognamiglio et?al. in Seism Res Lett 6/81, 2010), L??Aquila earthquake (central Italy), with the aim to investigate the site amplification within the Aterno river Valley. The seismograms of 18 earthquakes recorded by 14 of the 33 stations were used to evaluate the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for each site and the standard horizontal spectral ratio (SSR) between a site and a reference station. The obtained results have been compared to the geological and geophysical information in order to explain the resonance frequencies and the amplification levels with respect to surface geology of the valley. The results indicate that there is no uniform pattern of amplification, because of the complex geologic setting, as the thickness and degree of cementation of the deposits is highly variable.     

交互作用视角下人口流动性与住房类型对城市入室盗窃空间格局的影响

已有研究发现社区住房类型对城市入室盗窃的空间格局有重要影响,但鲜有学者探讨位于不同人口流动程度社区环境中的不同住房对入室盗窃影响的差异。本研究以中国东南沿海城市ZG市为例,基于日常活动和社会失序等理论,以社区为分析单元,利用入室盗窃警情数据、第六次人口普查数据和兴趣点数据（Point of Interest, POI）,运用空间滞后负二项回归方法,分析人口流动性与住房类型的交互作用对入室盗窃空间格局的影响。结果表明：人口流动性高的社区入室盗窃率较高;自建住房比例对入室盗窃率有显著的正向影响,原公有住房比例和商品房比例则呈显著的抑制作用;交互变量的结果发现,人口流动性与不同类型住房变量的交互作用存在差异,其中,人口流动性与自建住房、经济适用房、原公有住房的交互变量对入室盗窃的发生具有显著的促进作用,而与商品房的交互对入室盗窃的影响并不显著。说明在探讨不同类型住房与入室盗窃的关系时,应重视其所在社区的人口流动程度的影响。     

The ITalian ACcelerometric Archive (ITACA): processing of strong-motion data

The Italian strong-motion database was created during a joint project between Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, Italian Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology) and Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC, Italian Civil Protection). The aim of the project was the collection, homogenization and distribution of strong motion data acquired in Italy in the period 1972–2004 by different institutions, namely Ente Nazionale per l’Energia Elettrica (ENEL, Italian electricity company), Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente (ENEA, Italian energy and environment organization) and DPC. Recently the strong-motion data relative to the 23th December 2009, Parma (Mw = 5.4 and Mw = 4.9) and to the April 2009 L’Aquila sequences (13 earthquakes with 4.1 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.3) were included in the Italian Accelerometric Archive (ITACA) database (beta release). The database contains 7,038 waveforms from analog and digital instruments, generated by 1.019 earthquakes with magnitude up to 6.9 and can be accessed on-line at the web site . The strong motion data are provided in the unprocessed and processed versions. This article describes the steps followed to process the acceleration time series recorded by analogue and digital instruments. The procedures implemented involve: baseline removal, instrumental correction, band pass filtering with acausal filters, integration of the corrected acceleration in order to obtain velocity and displacement waveforms, computation of acceleration response spectra and strong motion parameters. This procedure is applied to each accelerogram and it is realised to preserve the low frequency content of the records.