Climate change impacts on runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia)

The main freshwater source of arid/semi-arid Central Asia is stored in its high mountain glaciers. Water for the downstream countries is mainly supplied through the Syrdarya River that originates at the confluence of the Naryn and Karadarya rivers in the Ferghana Valley. Runoff generation from glaciers plays a crucial role, although a considerable number of small tributaries supply the river with additional runoff from snowmelt and rain in the mountains surrounding the Ferghana Valley. Observations of rising air temperature and accelerated glacier shrinkage make it most likely that the relative contributions of the smaller tributaries will increase. Hitherto, assessments of climate change effects on the water resource availability have largely neglected the growing importance of the runoff from smaller tributaries. We used a dynamically downscaled A1B SRES scenario for climate change effects for the period 2071–2100 in relation to the reference period of 1971–2000 and a version of the conceptual hydrological Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning model (HBV-light) to estimate runoff contributions with particular respect to the small tributaries. The simulations showed a 12–42% decrease in summer runoff; and a 44–107% increase in winter-spring runoff. This indicates the hydrological regime is shifting towards a runoff from snowmelt earlier in the year. The study suggests that actions for climate change adaptation should be complemented by land management configured to secure optimal runoff supplement from the smaller catchments.     

Semiempirical band structure calculations on skutterudite-type compounds

Semiempirical band structure calculations were performed on several skutterudite-type compounds by using the extended Hückel method. Starting with the molecular orbital calculations on isolated P₄ and As₄ rings, the reason for the band dispersions of the skutterudites was found to be the interactions between the nonmetal atoms. Both the intermolecular and the intramolecular interactions between the phosphorus atoms are stronger than those between the arsenic atoms. Hence, the dispersion of the bands in CoP₃ is larger than that in CoAs₃. The COOP (crystal orbital overlap population) integrals of the intramolecular P-P bonds reveal the relation between the valence electron count and the observed bond lengths. The P-P bonds in the skutterudite-type compounds like TP₃ (T = Co, Rh, Ir) become stronger by reduction as in NiP₃ and weaker by oxidation as in RT₄X₁₂ (X = P, As, Sb; R = alkaline earth or rare earth metals) because the bands near the Fermi level are bonding. The electronic reason for the geometric distortion of the Ge₂Y₂ (Y = S, Se) units of mixed skutterudites TGe_1.5Y_1.5 is caused by an electron pair gap on germanium, which corresponds to low electron density perpendicular to the ring plane on the germanium atoms. Received: 6 October 1998 / Revised, accepted: 18 June 1999     

Melt in the impact breccias from the Eyreville drill cores,Chesapeake Bay impact structure,USA

The center of the 35.3 Ma Chesapeake Bay impact structure (85 km diameter) was drilled during 2005/2006 in an ICDP–USGS drilling project. The Eyreville drill cores include polymict impact breccias and associated rocks (1397–1551 m depth). Tens of melt particles from these impactites were studied by optical and electron microscopy, electron microprobe, and microRaman spectroscopy, and classified into six groups: m1—clear or brownish melt, m2—brownish melt altered to phyllosilicates, m3—colorless silica melt, m4—melt with pyroxene and plagioclase crystallites, m5—dark brown melt, and m6—melt with globular texture. These melt types have partly overlapping major element abundances, and large compositional variations due to the presence of schlieren, poorly mixed melt phases, partly digested clasts, and variable crystallization and alteration. The different melt types also vary in their abundance with depth in the drill core. Based on the chemical data, mixing calculations were performed to determine possible precursors of these melt particles. The calculations suggest that most melt types formed mainly from the thick sedimentary section of the target sequence (mainly the Potomac Formation), but an additional crystalline basement (schist/gneiss) precursor is likely for the most abundant melt types m2 and m5. Sedimentary rocks with compositions similar to those of the melt particles are present among the Eyreville core samples. Therefore, sedimentary target rocks were the main precursor of the Eyreville melt particles. However, the composition of the melt particles is not only the result of the precursor composition but also the result of changes during melting and solidification, as well as postimpact alteration, which must also be considered. The variability of the melt particle compositions reflects the variety of target rocks and indicates that there was no uniform melt source. Original heterogeneities, resulting from melting of different target rocks, may be preserved in impactites of some large impact structures that formed in volatile‐rich targets, because no large melt body exists, in which homogenization would have taken place.     

城市环境气候图的发展及其应用现状

城市环境气候图最初于20世纪70年代由德国气候研究者开发制作,通过近40年的发展,目前在世界范围内已有20个国家开展了相关研究与应用项目,从而为改善城市气候环境与提高人居生活条件提供决策依据。该文首先对城市环境气候图的发展及其制作方法进行了一个总体性的回顾,然后选取德国、日本和中国香港地区的研究案例用以考察目前该领域研究和应用现状与存在问题,进一步详细探讨了未来发展的方向,最后指出了在我国城市化进程中为应对诸多气候环境问题所迫切需要开展的相关研究问题。     

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models.     

Chalcides and pnictides of group VIII transition metals: Far-infrared spectroscopic studies on compounds MX 2, MXY,and MY 2 with pyrite,marcasite, and arsenopyrite structure

The far-infrared (FIR) spectra of pyrites, marcasites and loellingites, and arsenopyrites of the type MX ₂, MY ₂, and MXY with M=Fe, Co, Ru, Rh, Os, Ir X=S, Se, Te, and Y=P, As, and Sb have been studied, including group theoretical treatment of the phonon modes. The internal Y - Y and X - Y stretching modes, infrared (IR) allowed only in the case of the arsenopyrites, have been found to be in the range 440–490, 470–510, 450–490, 430–450 and 400–420 cm^?1 for MP ₂, MPS, MPSe, MAsS, and MSbS type compounds, respectively. From the obtained spectra intensity weighted mean phonon frequencies, i.e. central frequencies as defined by Plendl (1961), and mass weighted ones have been calculated and interpreted in terms of the strength of the MX and MY bonds, especially comparing 3d, 4d, and 5d transition metal compounds. Method of preparation and X-ray data of the chalcides and pnictides studied are also given.     

Reaction rim growth in the system MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 under uniaxial stress

We synthesize reaction rims between thermodynamically incompatible phases in the system MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂ applying uniaxial load using a creep apparatus. Synthesis experiments are done in the MgO-SiO₂ and in the MgO-Al₂O₃ subsystems at temperatures ranging from 1150 to 1350 °C imposing vertical stresses of 1.2 to 29 MPa at ambient pressure and under a constant flow of dry argon. Single crystals of synthetic and natural quartz and forsterite, synthetic periclase and synthetic corundum polycrystals are used as starting materials. We produce enstatite rims at forsterite-quartz contacts, enstatite-forsterite double rims at periclase-quartz contacts and spinel rims at periclase-corundum contacts. We find that rim growth under the “dry” conditions of our experiments is sluggish compared to what has been found previously in nominally “dry” piston cylinder experiments. We further observe that the nature of starting material, synthetic or natural, has a major influence on rim growth rates, where natural samples are more reactive than synthetic ones. At a given temperature the effect of stress variation is larger than what is anticipated from the modification of the thermodynamic driving force for reaction due to the storage of elastic strain energy in the reactant phases. We speculate that this may be due to modification of the physical properties of the polycrystals that constitute the reaction rims or by deformation under the imposed load. In our experiments rim growth is very sluggish at forsterite-quartz interfaces. Rim growth is more rapid at periclase-quartz contacts. The spinel rims that are produced at periclase-corundum interfaces show parabolic growth indicating that reaction rim growth is essentially diffusion controlled. From the analysis of time series done in the MgO-Al₂O₃ subsystem we derive effective diffusivities for the Al₂O₃ and the MgO components in a spinel polycrystal as ${\rm D}_{MgO} = 1.4 \pm 0.2 \cdot 10^{-15}$  m²/s and ${\rm D}_{Al_2O_3} = 3.7 \pm 0.6 \cdot 10^{-16}$  m²/s for T?=?1350 °C and a vertical stress of 2.9 MPa.     

Effect of land cover and hydro‐meteorological controls on soil water DOC concentrations in a high‐elevation tropical environment

Páramo soils store high amounts of organic carbon. However, the effects of climate change and changes in land cover and use (LC/LU) in this high‐elevation tropical ecosystem may cause a decrease in their carbon storage capacity. Therefore, better understanding of the factors influencing the Páramo soils' carbon storage and export is urgently needed. To fill this knowledge gap, we investigated the differences in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content in the soil water of four LC/LU types (tussock grass, natural forest, pine plantations, and pasture) and the factors controlling its variability in the Quinuas Ecohydrological Observatory in south Ecuador. Weekly measurements of soil water DOC concentrations, meteorological variables, soil water content, and temperature from various depths and slope positions were monitored within the soils' organic and mineral horizons between October 2014 and January 2017. These data were used to generate regression trees and random forest statistical models to identify the factors controlling soil water DOC concentrations. From high to low concentrations, natural forest depict the highest DOC concentrations followed by pasture, tussock grass, and pine forest. For all LC/LU types, DOC concentrations increase with decreasing soil moisture. Our results also show that LC/LU is the most important predictor of soil water DOC concentrations, followed by sampling depth and soil moisture. Interestingly, atmospheric variables and antecedent evapotranspiration and precipitation conditions show only little influence on DOC concentrations during the monitoring period. Our findings provide unique information that can help improve the management of soil and water resources in the Páramo and other peat dominated ecosystems elsewhere.     

Late Quaternary ice-rich permafrost sequences as a paleoenvironmental archive for the Laptev Sea Region in northern Siberia

Ice-rich permafrost sequences with large polygonal ice wedges represent excellent archives for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Such deposits contain numerous well-preserved records (ground ice, paleosols, peat beds, different types of fossils), which permit characterization of environmental conditions during a clearly defined period of the past 60 ka. Based on field investigations carried out within framework of the German-Russian project "Laptev Sea System 2000" on the Bykovsky Peninsula (SE of the Lena Delta) results from cryolithological studies, sedimentological analyses, as well as new radiocarbon data are presented. For the first time it is shown that the Ice Complex accumulated without significant interruptions from approximately 60 k.y. B.P. until the end of the Pleistocene. Geochemical data (total organic carbon, C/N, '¹³C_org) and the mass-specific magnetic susceptibility clearly show changing environmental conditions from stadial to interstadial times in the Late Pleistocene and during the transition to the Holocene. These results permit us to reconstruct the development of an Arctic periglacial landscape in the coastal lowland during Ice Complex formation in the Late Quaternary. This evolution coincided generally with the global environmental trend up to marine isotope stage 4.