The implementation of reverse Kessler warm rain scheme for radar reflectivity assimilation using a nudging approach in New Zealand

Reverse Kessler warm rain processes were implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and coupled with a Newtonian relaxation, or nudging technique designed to improve quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) in New Zealand by making use of observed radar reflectivity and modest computing facilities. One of the reasons for developing such a scheme, rather than using 4D-Var for example, is that radar VAR scheme in general, and 4D-Var in particular, requires computational resources beyond the capability of most university groups and indeed some national forecasting centres of small countries like New Zealand. The new scheme adjusts the model water vapor mixing ratio profiles based on observed reflectivity at each time step within an assimilation time window. The whole scheme can be divided into following steps: (i) The radar reflectivity is firstly converted to rain water, and (ii) then the rain water is used to derive cloud water content according to the reverse Kessler scheme; (iii) The cloud water content associated water vapor mixing ratio is then calculated based on the saturation adjustment processes; (iv) Finally the adjusted water vapor is nudged into the model and the model background is updated. 13 rainfall cases which occurred in the summer of 2011/2012 in New Zealand were used to evaluate the new scheme, different forecast scores were calculated and showed that the new scheme was able to improve precipitation forecasts on average up to around 7 hours ahead depending on different verification thresholds.     

Distribution of thermal areas on an active lava flow field: Landsat observations of Kilauea,Hawaii, July 1991

A Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image acquired on 23 July 1991 recorded widespread activity associated with the Episode 48 of the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. The scene contains a very large number (>3500) of thermally elevated near infrared (0.8–2.35 m) pixels (each 900 m²), which enable the spatial distribution of volcanic activity to be identified. This activity includes a lava lake within Pu'u 'O'o cone, an active lava tube system (7.9 km in length) with skylights between the Kupaianaha lava shield and several ocean entry points, and extensive active surface flows (total area of 1.3 km²) within a much larger area of cooling flows (total16 km²). The production of an average flux density map from the TM data of the flow field, wherein the average flux density is defined in units of Wm^-2, allows for the chronology of emplacement of active and cooling flows to be determined. The flux density map reveals that there were at least three breakouts (>5000 Wm^-2) feeding active flows, but on the day that the data were collected the TM recorded a waning phase of surface activity in this area, based on the relatively large amount of intermediate power-emitting (cooling) flows compared to high power-emitting (active) flows. The production of a comparable flux density map for future eruptions would aid in the assessment of volcanic hazards if the data were available in near-real time.     

Controls on valley spacing in landscapes subject to rapid base‐level fall

What controls the architecture of drainage networks is a fundamental question in geomorphology. Recent work has elucidated the mechanisms of drainage network development in steadily uplifting landscapes, but the controls on drainage‐network morphology in transient landscapes are relatively unknown. In this paper we exploit natural experiments in drainage network development in incised Plio‐Quaternary alluvial fan surfaces in order to understand and quantify drainage network development in highly transient landscapes, i.e. initially unincised low‐relief surfaces that experience a pulse of rapid base‐level drop followed by relative base‐level stasis. Parallel drainage networks formed on incised alluvial‐fan surfaces tend to have a drainage spacing that is approximately proportional to the magnitude of the base‐level drop. Numerical experiments suggest that this observed relationship between the magnitude of base‐level drop and mean drainage spacing is the result of feedbacks among the depth of valley incision, mass wasting and nonlinear increases in the rate of colluvial sediment transport with slope gradient on steep valley side slopes that lead to increasingly wide valleys in cases of larger base‐level drop. We identify a threshold magnitude of base‐level drop above which side slopes lengthen sufficiently to promote increases in contributing area and fluvial incision rates that lead to branching and encourage drainage networks to transition from systems of first‐order valleys to systems of higher‐order, branching valleys. The headward growth of these branching tributaries prevents the development of adjacent, ephemeral drainages and promotes a higher mean valley spacing relative to cases in which tributaries do not form. Model results offer additional insights into the response of initially unincised landscapes to rapid base‐level drop and provide a preliminary basis for understanding how varying amounts of base‐level change influence valley network morphology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ neutron diffraction study of deuterated portlandite Ca(OD)2 at high pressure and temperature

The structure of deuterated portlandite, Ca(OD)₂, has been investigated using time-of-flight neutron diffraction at pressures up to ∼4.5 GPa and temperatures up to ∼823 K. Rietveld analysis of the data reveals that with increasing pressure, unit-cell parameter c decreases at a rate about 4.5 times larger than that for a, which is largely due to rapid contraction of the interlayer spacing in this pressure range. Fitting of the determined cell volumes to the third-order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state yields a bulk modulus (K ₀) of 32.2 ± 1.0 GPa and its first derivative (K ₀′) of 4.4 ± 0.6. Moreover, on compression, hydrogen-mediated interatomic interactions within the interlayer become strengthened, as reflected by decreases in interlayer D···O and D···D distances with increasing pressure. Correspondingly, D–D, the distance between the three equivalent sites over which D is disordered, increases, suggesting a pressure-induced hydrogen disorder. This behavior is similar to that reported in brucite at elevated pressure. On heating at ∼2.1 GPa, cell parameter c increases more rapidly than a, as expected. However, because of the pressure effect, the thermal expansion coefficients, particularly along c, are much smaller than those at ambient pressure. With increasing temperature, the three partially occupied D sites become further apart, and the D-mediated interactions, mainly the interlayer D···D repulsion, become weakened.     

Rare earth element geochemistry of Late Devonian reefal carbonates, Canning Basin, Western Australia: confirmation of a seawater REE proxy in ancient limestones

Rare earth element and yttrium (REE+Y) concentrations were determined in 49 Late Devonian reefal carbonates from the Lennard Shelf, Canning Basin, Western Australia. Shale-normalized (SN) REE+Y patterns of the Late Devonian samples display features consistent with the geochemistry of well-oxygenated, shallow seawater. A variety of different ancient limestone components, including microbialites, some skeletal carbonates (stromatoporoids), and cements, record seawater-like REE+Y signatures. Contamination associated with phosphate, Fe-oxides and shale was tested quantitatively, and can be discounted as the source of the REE+Y patterns. Co-occurring carbonate components that presumably precipitated from the same seawater have different relative REE concentrations, but consistent REE+Y patterns. Clean Devonian early marine cements (n = 3) display REE+Y signatures most like that of modern open ocean seawater and the highest Y/Ho ratios (e.g., 59) and greatest light REE (LREE) depletion (average Nd_SN/Yb_SN = 0.413, SD = 0.076). However, synsedimentary cements have the lowest REE concentrations (e.g., 405 ppb). Non-contaminated Devonian microbialite samples containing a mixture of the calcimicrobe Renalcis and micritic thrombolite aggregates in early marine cement (n = 11) have the highest relative REE concentrations of tested carbonates (average total REE = 11.3 ppm). Stromatoporoid skeletons, unlike modern corals, algae and molluscs, also contain well-developed, seawater-like REE patterns. Samples from an estuarine fringing reef have very different REE+Y patterns with LREE enrichment (Nd_SN/Yb_SN > 1), possibly reflecting inclusion of estuarine colloidal material that contained preferentially scavenged LREE from a nearby riverine input source. Hence, Devonian limestones provide a proxy for marine REE geochemistry and allow the differentiation of co-occurring water masses on the ancient Lennard Shelf. Although appropriate partition coefficients for quantification of Devonian seawater REE concentrations from out data are unknown, hypothetical Devonian Canning Basin seawater REE patterns were obtained with coefficients derived from modern natural proxies and experimental values. Resulting Devonian seawater patterns are slightly enriched in LREE compared to most modern seawaters and suggest higher overall REE concentrations, but are very similar to seawaters from regions with high terrigenous inputs. Our results suggest that most limestones should record important aspects of the REE geochemistry of the waters in which they precipitated, provided they are relatively free of terrigenous contamination and major diagenetic alteration from fluids with high, non-seawater-like REE contents. Hence, we expect that many other ancient limestones will serve as seawater REE proxies, and thereby provide information on paleoceanography, paleogeography and geochemical evolution of the oceans.     

Intra-annual variability of urban effects on streamflow

While considerable research has established the impacts of urbanization on streamflow, there has been little emphasis on how intra-annual variations in streamflow can deepen the understanding of hydrological processes in urban watersheds. This study fills this critical research gap by examining, at the monthly scale, correlations between land-cover and streamflow, differences in streamflow metrics between urban and rural watersheds, and the potential for the inflow and infiltration (I&I) of extraneous water into sewers to reduce streamflow. We use data from 90 watersheds in the Atlanta, GA region over the 2013–2019 period to accomplish our objectives. Similar to other urban areas in temperate climates, Atlanta has a soil-water surplus in winter and a soil-water deficit in summer. Our results show urban watersheds have less streamflow seasonality than do rural watersheds. Compared to rural watersheds, urban watersheds have a much larger frequency of high-flow days during July–October. This is caused by increased impervious cover decreasing the importance of antecedent soil moisture in producing runoff. Urban watersheds have lower baseflows than rural watersheds during December–April but have baseflows equal to or larger than baseflows in rural watersheds during July–October. Intra-annual variations in effluent data from wastewater treatment plants provide evidence that I&I is a major cause of the relatively low baseflows during December–April. The relatively high baseflows in urban watersheds during July–October are likely caused by reduced evapotranspiration and the inflow of municipal water. The above seasonal aspects of urban effects on streamflow should be applicable to most urban watersheds with temperate climates.     

Which way do you lean? Using slope aspect variations to understand Critical Zone processes and feedbacks

Soil‐mantled pole‐facing hillslopes on Earth tend to be steeper, wetter, and have more vegetation cover compared with adjacent equator‐facing hillslopes. These and other slope aspect controls are often the consequence of feedbacks among hydrologic, ecologic, pedogenic, and geomorphic processes triggered by spatial variations in mean annual insolation. In this paper we review the state of knowledge on slope aspect controls of Critical Zone (CZ) processes using the latitudinal and elevational dependence of topographic asymmetry as a motivating observation. At relatively low latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to be steeper. At higher latitudes and elevations this pattern reverses. We reproduce this pattern using an empirical model based on parsimonious functions of latitude, an aridity index, mean‐annual temperature, and slope gradient. Using this empirical model and the literature as guides, we present a conceptual model for the slope‐aspect‐driven CZ feedbacks that generate asymmetry in water‐limited and temperature‐limited end‐member cases. In this conceptual model the dominant factor driving slope aspect differences at relatively low latitudes and elevations is the difference in mean‐annual soil moisture. The dominant factor at higher latitudes and elevations is temperature limitation on vegetation growth. In water‐limited cases, we propose that higher mean‐annual soil moisture on pole‐facing hillslopes drives higher soil production rates, higher water storage potential, more vegetation cover, faster dust deposition, and lower erosional efficiency in a positive feedback. At higher latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to have less vegetation cover, greater erosional efficiency, and gentler slopes, thus reversing the pattern of asymmetry found at lower latitudes and elevations. Our conceptual model emphasizes the linkages among short‐ and long‐timescale processes and across CZ sub‐disciplines; it also points to opportunities to further understand how CZ processes interact. We also demonstrate the importance of paleoclimatic conditions and non‐climatic factors in influencing slope aspect variations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The timing and magnitude of changes to Hortonian overland flow at the watershed scale during the post-fire recovery process

Extreme hydrologic responses following wildfires can lead to floods and debris flows with costly economic and societal impacts. Process-based hydrologic and geomorphic models used to predict the downstream impacts of wildfire must account for temporal changes in hydrologic parameters related to the generation and subsequent routing of infiltration-excess overland flow across the landscape. However, we lack quantitative relationships showing how parameters change with time-since-burning, particularly at the watershed scale. To assess variations in best-fit hydrologic parameters with time, we used the KINEROS2 hydrological model to explore temporal changes in hillslope saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sh) and channel hydraulic roughness (n_c) following a wildfire in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed (41.5 km²), which burned during the 2009 Station fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA. This study explored runoff-producing storms between 2008 and 2014 to infer watershed hydraulic properties by calibrating the model to observations at the watershed outlet. Modelling indicates K_sh is lowest in the first year following the fire and then increases at an average rate of approximately 4.2 mm/h/year during the first 5 years of recovery. The estimated values for K_sh in the first year following the fire are similar to those obtained in previous studies on smaller watersheds (<1.5 km²) following the Station fire, suggesting hydrologic changes detected here can be applied to lower-order watersheds. Hydraulic roughness, n_c, was lowest in the first year following the fire, but increased by a factor of 2 after 1 year of recovery. Post-fire observations suggest changes in n_c are due to changes in grain roughness and vegetation in channels. These results provide quantitative constraints on the magnitude of fire-induced hydrologic changes following severe wildfires in chaparral-dominated ecosystems as well as the timing of hydrologic recovery.     

On the origin of the unusual orbit of Comet 2P/Encke

The orbit of Comet 2P/Encke is difficult to understand because it is decoupled from Jupiter—its aphelion distance is only 4.1 AU. We present a series of orbital integrations designed to determine whether the orbit of Comet 2P/Encke can simply be the result of gravitational interactions between Jupiter-family comets and the terrestrial planets. To accomplish this, we integrated the orbits of a large number of objects from the trans-neptunian region, through the realm of the giant planets, and into the inner Solar System. We find that at any one time, our model predicts that there should be roughly 12 objects in Encke-like orbits. However, it takes roughly 200 times longer to evolve onto an orbit like this than the typical cometary physical lifetime. Thus, we suggest that (i) 2P/Encke became dormant soon after it was kicked inward by Jupiter, (ii) it spent a significant amount of time inactive while rattling around the inner Solar System, and (iii) it only became active again as the ν₆ secular resonance drove down its perihelion distance.