In situ neutron diffraction study of deuterated portlandite Ca(OD)2 at high pressure and temperature

The structure of deuterated portlandite, Ca(OD)₂, has been investigated using time-of-flight neutron diffraction at pressures up to ∼4.5 GPa and temperatures up to ∼823 K. Rietveld analysis of the data reveals that with increasing pressure, unit-cell parameter c decreases at a rate about 4.5 times larger than that for a, which is largely due to rapid contraction of the interlayer spacing in this pressure range. Fitting of the determined cell volumes to the third-order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state yields a bulk modulus (K ₀) of 32.2 ± 1.0 GPa and its first derivative (K ₀′) of 4.4 ± 0.6. Moreover, on compression, hydrogen-mediated interatomic interactions within the interlayer become strengthened, as reflected by decreases in interlayer D···O and D···D distances with increasing pressure. Correspondingly, D–D, the distance between the three equivalent sites over which D is disordered, increases, suggesting a pressure-induced hydrogen disorder. This behavior is similar to that reported in brucite at elevated pressure. On heating at ∼2.1 GPa, cell parameter c increases more rapidly than a, as expected. However, because of the pressure effect, the thermal expansion coefficients, particularly along c, are much smaller than those at ambient pressure. With increasing temperature, the three partially occupied D sites become further apart, and the D-mediated interactions, mainly the interlayer D···D repulsion, become weakened.     

The implementation of reverse Kessler warm rain scheme for radar reflectivity assimilation using a nudging approach in New Zealand

Reverse Kessler warm rain processes were implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and coupled with a Newtonian relaxation, or nudging technique designed to improve quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) in New Zealand by making use of observed radar reflectivity and modest computing facilities. One of the reasons for developing such a scheme, rather than using 4D-Var for example, is that radar VAR scheme in general, and 4D-Var in particular, requires computational resources beyond the capability of most university groups and indeed some national forecasting centres of small countries like New Zealand. The new scheme adjusts the model water vapor mixing ratio profiles based on observed reflectivity at each time step within an assimilation time window. The whole scheme can be divided into following steps: (i) The radar reflectivity is firstly converted to rain water, and (ii) then the rain water is used to derive cloud water content according to the reverse Kessler scheme; (iii) The cloud water content associated water vapor mixing ratio is then calculated based on the saturation adjustment processes; (iv) Finally the adjusted water vapor is nudged into the model and the model background is updated. 13 rainfall cases which occurred in the summer of 2011/2012 in New Zealand were used to evaluate the new scheme, different forecast scores were calculated and showed that the new scheme was able to improve precipitation forecasts on average up to around 7 hours ahead depending on different verification thresholds.     

Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012

Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities. To investigate relationships between recent declines in sea ice area with Arctic maritime activity, trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and on a comprehensive shipping dataset of observed vessel transits through the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Links to surface air temperature (SAT) and the satellite derived melt season length were also investigated. Between 1990 and 2012, statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed within the NORDREG zone on monthly and annual time-scales coincident with declines in sea ice area (FYI, MYI, and total ice) during the shipping season and on a monthly basis. Similarly, the NORDREG zone is experiencing increased shoulder season shipping activity, alongside an increasing melt season length and warming surface air temperatures (SAT). Despite these trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, although a step increase in shipping activity is apparent following the former summer sea ice extent minimum in 2007. Other non-environmental factors have also likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity within the Canadian Arctic, such as tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends.     

Occurrence, distribution and characteristics of beached plastic production pellets on the island of Malta (central Mediterranean)

The distribution, abundance and chemical characteristics of plastic production pellets on beaches of the island of Malta have been determined. Pellets were observed at all locations visited and were generally most abundant (>1000 m⁻² at the surface) on the backshores of beaches with a westerly aspect. Most pellets were disc-shaped or flattened cylinders and could be categorised as white, yellow, amber or brown. The polymeric matrix of all pellets analysed by infrared spectroscopy was polyethylene and the degree of yellowing or darkening was associated with an increase in the carbonyl index, hence extent of photo-oxidation or aging. Qualitatively, pellets are similar to those reported for other regions of the Mediterranean in surveys spanning three decades, suggesting that they are a general and persistent characteristic of the region.     

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.     

Cratering rates in the outer Solar System

This paper is a compilation by table, graph, and equation of impact cratering rates from Jupiter to Pluto. We use several independent constraints on the number of ecliptic comets. Together they imply that the impact rate on Jupiter by 1.5-km-diameter comets is currently ?(d > 1.5 km) = 0.005−0.003+0.006 per annum. Other kinds of impactors are currently unimportant on most worlds at most sizes. The size-number distribution of impactors smaller than 20 km is inferred from size-number distributions of impact craters on Europa, Ganymede, and Triton; while the size-number distribution of impacting bodies larger than 50 km is equated to the size-number distribution of Kuiper Belt objects. The gap is bridged by interpolation. It is notable that small craters on Jupiter’s moons indicate a pronounced paucity of small impactors, while small craters on Triton imply a collisional population rich in small bodies. However it is unclear whether the craters on Triton are of heliocentric or planetocentric origin. We therefore consider two cases for Saturn and beyond: a Case A in which the size-number distribution is like that inferred at Jupiter, and a Case B in which small objects obey a more nearly collisional distribution. Known craters on saturnian and uranian satellites are consistent with either case, although surface ages are much younger in Case B, especially at Saturn and Uranus. At Neptune and especially at Saturn our cratering rates are much higher than rates estimated by Shoemaker and colleagues, presumably because Shoemaker’s estimates mostly predate discovery of the Kuiper Belt. We also estimate collisional disruption rates of moons and compare these to estimates in the literature.     

On the origin of the unusual orbit of Comet 2P/Encke

The orbit of Comet 2P/Encke is difficult to understand because it is decoupled from Jupiter—its aphelion distance is only 4.1 AU. We present a series of orbital integrations designed to determine whether the orbit of Comet 2P/Encke can simply be the result of gravitational interactions between Jupiter-family comets and the terrestrial planets. To accomplish this, we integrated the orbits of a large number of objects from the trans-neptunian region, through the realm of the giant planets, and into the inner Solar System. We find that at any one time, our model predicts that there should be roughly 12 objects in Encke-like orbits. However, it takes roughly 200 times longer to evolve onto an orbit like this than the typical cometary physical lifetime. Thus, we suggest that (i) 2P/Encke became dormant soon after it was kicked inward by Jupiter, (ii) it spent a significant amount of time inactive while rattling around the inner Solar System, and (iii) it only became active again as the ν₆ secular resonance drove down its perihelion distance.     

Quaternary glacial history of the Central Karakoram

The Quaternary glacial history of the world's highest mountains, the Central Karakoram, is examined for the first time using geomorphic mapping of landforms and sediments, and ¹⁰Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of boulders on the moraines and glacially eroded surfaces. Four glacial stages are defined: the Bunthang glacial stage (>0.7 Ma); the Skardu glacial stage (marine Oxygen Isotope Stage [MIS] 6 or older); the Mungo glacial stage (MIS 2); and the Askole glacial stage (Holocene). Glaciers advanced several times during each glacial stage. These advances are not well defined for the oldest glacial stages, but during the Mungo and Askole glacial stages glacial advances likely occurred at 16, 11–13, 5 and 0.8 ka. The extent of glaciation in this region became increasingly more restricted over time. In the Braldu and Shigar valleys, glaciers advanced >150 km during the Bunthang and Skardu glacial stages, while glaciers advanced >80 km beyond their present positions during the Mungo glacial stage. In contrast, glaciers advanced a few kilometers from present ice margins during the Askole glacial stage. Glacier in this region likely respond in a complex fashion to the same forcing that causes changes in Northern Hemisphere oceans and ice sheets, teleconnected via the mid-latitude westerlies, and also to changes in monsoonal intensity.     

Regional-scale back-analysis using TRIGRS: an approach to advance landslide hazard modeling and prediction in sparse data regions

Landslides in Kerala, India, have been shown to be preceded not only by critical rainfall over a short period but also a much longer period of elevated pore pressure. Such rainfall-triggered landslides are difficult to monitor due to a lack of adequate data on the locations of failures and precipitation. Here, a method is presented using Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope stability (TRIGRS) as a tool to model the relationship between critical rainfall and antecedent pore pressure as they relate to slope stability, which can be useful for hazard assessment in sparse data regions. This is demonstrated by parameterizing the model with a combination of regional data sources, remote sensing, and temporal back-analysis based on two known failure events (June 2004 and July 2007). Ranges of possible geotechnical and hydraulic parameters were obtained from various local and regional sources, and soil thickness was modeled as a function of slope angle. Rainfall was estimated using satellite microwave radiometry data. For back-analysis, combinations of cohesion, friction angle, and water table depth were then tested in TRIGRS using trial and error until the predicted and observed failure times coincided for the two failure events. While the spatial prediction accuracy of the model is low and multiple solution sets are expected to exist, the results confirm that information regarding the critical pre-failure conditions and stability changes over time can be derived despite data-poor circumstances. Future studies can be undertaken extending this method to characterize many parameter combinations and incorporate more failure cases to develop probabilistic early-warning thresholds.