Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

The impact of dust on the scaling properties of galaxy clusters

We investigate the effect of dust on the scaling properties of galaxy clusters based on hydrodynamic N -body simulations of structure formation. We have simulated five dust models plus radiative cooling and adiabatic models using the same initial conditions for all runs. The numerical implementation of dust was based on the analytical computations of Montier & Giard. We set up dust simulations to cover different combinations of dust parameters that make evident the effects of size and abundance of dust grains. Comparing our radiative plus dust cooling runs with a purely radiative cooling simulation, we find that dust has an impact on cluster scaling relations. It mainly affects the normalization of the scalings (and their evolution), whereas it introduces no significant differences in their slopes. The strength of the effect critically depends on the dust abundance and grain size parameters as well as on the cluster scaling. Indeed, cooling due to dust is effective in the cluster regime and has a stronger effect on the 'baryon driven' statistical properties of clusters such as   L _X– M , Y – M , S – M   scaling relations. Major differences, relative to the radiative cooling model, are as high as 25 per cent for the   L _X– M   normalization, and about 10 per cent for the Y – M and S – M normalizations at redshift zero. On the other hand, we find that dust has almost no impact on the 'dark matter driven'   T _mw– M   scaling relation. The effects are found to be dependent in equal parts on both dust abundances and grain size distributions for the scalings investigated in this paper. Higher dust abundances and smaller grain sizes cause larger departures from the radiative cooling (i.e. with no dust) model.     

The dark matter environment of the Abell 901/902 supercluster: a weak lensing analysis of the HST STAGES survey

We present a high-resolution dark matter reconstruction of the   z = 0.165  Abell 901/902 supercluster from a weak lensing analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope STAGES survey. We detect the four main structures of the supercluster at high significance, resolving substructure within and between the clusters. We find that the distribution of dark matter is well traced by the cluster galaxies, with the brightest cluster galaxies marking out the strongest peaks in the dark matter distribution. We also find a significant extension of the dark matter distribution of Abell 901a in the direction of an infalling X-ray group Abell 901α. We present mass, mass-to-light and mass-to-stellar mass ratio measurements of the structures and substructures that we detect. We find no evidence for variation of the mass-to-light and mass-to-stellar mass ratio between the different clusters. We compare our space-based lensing analysis with an earlier ground-based lensing analysis of the supercluster to demonstrate the importance of space-based imaging for future weak lensing dark matter 'observations'.     

Clitellate worms (Annelida) in lateglacial and Holocene sedimentary DNA records from the Polar Urals and northern Norway

While there are extensive macro‐ and microfossil records of a range of plants and animals from the Quaternary, earthworms and their close relatives amongst annelids are not preserved as fossils and therefore the knowledge of their past distributions is limited. This lack of fossils means that clitellate worms (Annelida) are currently underused in palaeoecological research, even though they can provide valuable information about terrestrial and aquatic environmental conditions. Their DNA might be preserved in sediments, which offers an alternative method for detection. Here we analyse lacustrine sediments from lakes in the Polar Urals, Arctic Russia, covering the period 24 000–1300 cal. a BP, and NE Norway, covering 10 700–3300 cal. a BP, using a universal mammal 16S rDNA marker. While mammals were recorded using the marker (reindeer was detected twice in the Polar Urals core at 23 000 and 14 000 cal. a BP, and four times in the Norwegian core at 11 000 cal. a BP and between 3600–3300 cal. a BP), worm extracellular DNA ‘bycatch’ was rather high. In this paper we present the first reported worm detection from ancient DNA. Our results demonstrate that both aquatic and terrestrial clitellates can be identified in late‐Quaternary lacustrine sediments, and the ecological information retrievable from this group warrants further research with a more targeted approach.     

Climatic and structural controls on Late-glacial and Holocene rockfall occurrence in high-elevated rock walls of the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps)

In the Mont Blanc massif (European Western Alps), rockfalls are one of the main natural hazards for alpinists and infrastructure. Rockfall activity after the Little Ice Age is well documented. An increase in frequency during the last three decades is related to permafrost degradation caused by rising air temperatures. In order to understand whether climate exerts a long-term control on rockfall occurrence, a selection of paleo-rockfall scars was dated in the Glacier du Géant basin [>3200 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. Rockfall occurrence was compared to different climatic and glacial proxies. This study presents 55 new samples (including replicates) and 25 previously-published ages from nine sampling sites. In total, 62 dated rockfall events display ages ranging from 0.03 ± 0.02 ka to 88.40 ± 7.60 ka. Holocene ages and their uncertainties were used to perform a Kernel density function into a continuous dataset displaying rockfall probability per 100 years. Results highlight four Holocene periods of enhanced rockfall occurrence: (i) c. 7–5.7 ka, related to the Holocene Warm Periods; (ii) c. 4.5–4 ka, related to the Sub-boreal Warm Period; (iii) c. 2.3–1.6 ka, related to the Roman Warm Period; and (iv) c. 0.9–0.3 ka, related to the Medieval Warm Period and beginning of the Little Ice Age. Laser and photogrammetric three-dimensional (3D) models of the rock walls were produced to reconstruct the detached volumes from the best-preserved rockfall scars (≤0.91 ± 0.12 ka). A structural study was carried out at the scale of the Glacier du Géant basin using aerial photographs, and at the scale of four selected rock walls using the 3D models. Two main vertical and one horizontal fracture sets were identified. They correspond respectively to alpine shear zones and veins opened-up during long-term exhumation of the Mont Blanc massif. Our study confirms that climate primarily controls rockfall occurrence, and that structural settings, coincident at both the massif and the rock wall scales, control the rock-wall shapes as well as the geometry and volume of the rockfall events. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The potential for convection and implications for geothermal energy in the Perth Basin, Western Australia

Convection of groundwater in aquifers can create areas of anomalously high temperature at shallow depths which could be exploited for geothermal energy. Temperature measurements in the Perth Basin (Western Australia) reveal thermal patterns that are consistent with convection in the Yarragadee Aquifer. This observation is supported by Rayleigh number calculations, which show that convection is possible within the range of aquifer thickness, geothermal gradient, salinity gradient and permeability encountered in the Yarragadee Aquifer, assuming that the aquifer can be treated as a homogeneous anisotropic layer. Numerical simulations of convection in a simplified model of the Yarragadee Aquifer show that: (1) the spacing of convective upwellings can be predicted from aquifer thickness and permeability anisotropy; (2) convective upwellings may be circular or elongate in plan view; (3) convective upwellings create significant temperature enhancements relative to the conductive profile; (4) convective flow rates are similar to regional groundwater flow rates; and (5) convection homogenises salinity within the aquifer. Further work is required to constrain the average horizontal and vertical permeability of the Yarragadee Aquifer, to assess the validity of treating the aquifer as a homogeneous anisotropic layer, and to determine the impact of realistic aquifer geometry and advection on convection.     

Kinematics of large syn-orogenic intrusions: example of the Lower Proterozoic Saraya batholith (Eastern Senegal)

The large Saraya batholith intruded the Lower Proterozoic sequences of Eastern Senegal. Structural analysis indicates that this large granitic batholith corresponds to a composite body consisting of several coalescent plutons and interfering diapirs. Interpretation of the structural fabric patterns in these plutons and in the host-rocks constitutes the basis of a hypothetical model of initiation, ascent and emplacement as follows: (1.) development of a deep N-S granitic ridge controled by a major crustal fracture generated by an earlier extensional phase re-activated by a strike-slip fault which, probably, would facilitate segregation, collection and ascent of magmas; (2.) intrusion and splitting up of the ridge into several diapirs which ascended simultaneously and separately in a setting of a N-S sinistral transcurrent deformation inducing a transverse NW-SE shortening and forceful emplacement of plutons and (3.) final emplacement characterized by interference between regional deformation and pluton ‘ballooning’, the latter leading to the coalescence of intrusions and to the formation of a larger, apparently homogeneous body. This model could be extended to the other large Birimian batholiths of the Lower Proterozoic in Eastern Senegal.