Extreme precipitation in WRF during the Newcastle East Coast Low of 2007

In the context of regional downscaling, we study the representation of extreme precipitation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, focusing on a major event that occurred on the 8^th of June 2007 along the coast of eastern Australia (abbreviated “Newy”). This was one of the strongest extra-tropical low-pressure systems off eastern Australia in the last 30 years and was one of several storms comprising a test bed for the WRF ensemble that underpins the regional climate change projections for eastern Australia (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project, NARCliM). Newy provides an informative case study for examining precipitation extremes as simulated by WRF set up for regional downscaling. Here, simulations from the NARCliM physics ensemble of Newy available at ～10 km grid spacing are used. Extremes and spatio-temporal characteristics are examined using land-based daily and hourly precipitation totals, with a particular focus on hourly accumulations. Of the different physics schemes assessed, the cumulus and the boundary layer schemes cause the largest differences. Although the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme produces better rainfall totals over the entire storm, the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme promotes higher and more realistic hourly extreme precipitation totals. Analysis indicates the Kain-Fritsch runs are correlated with larger resolved grid-scale vertical moisture fluxes, which are produced through the influence of parameterized convection on the larger-scale circulation and the subsequent convergence and ascent of moisture. Results show that WRF qualitatively reproduces spatial precipitation patterns during the storm, albeit with some errors in timing. This case study indicates that whilst regional climate simulations of an extreme event such as Newy in WRF may be well represented at daily scales irrespective of the physics scheme used, the representation at hourly scales is likely to be physics scheme dependent.     

Securing the climate benefits of stable forests

Stable forests – those not already significantly disturbed nor facing predictable near-future risks of anthropogenic disturbance – may play a large role in the climate solution, due to their carbon sequestration and storage capabilities. Their importance is recognized by the Paris Agreement, but stable forests have received comparatively little attention through existing forest protection mechanisms and finance. Instead, emphasis has been placed on targeting locations where deforestation and forest degradation are happening actively. Yet stopping deforestation and forest degradation does not guarantee durable success, especially outside the geographic scope of targeted efforts. As a result, today’s stable forests may be at risk without additional efforts to secure their long-term conservation.

We synthesize the gaps in existing policy efforts that could address the climate-related benefits derived from stable forests, noting several barriers to action, such as uncertainty around the level of climate services that stable forests provide and difficulties describing the real level of threat posed. We argue that resource and finance allocation for stable forests should be incorporated into countries’ and donors’ comprehensive portfolios aimed at tackling deforestation and forest degradation as well as resulting emissions. A holistic and forward-looking approach will be particularly important, given that success in tackling deforestation and forest degradation where it is currently happening will need to be sustained in the long term.

Key policy insights

• Climate policies, finance, and implementation have tended to focus on areas of recent forest loss and near-term threats of anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in an imbalance of effort that fails to adequately address stable forests.

• In some contexts, policy measuresintended to secure the climate-related benefits of stable forests have competed poorly against more urgent threats. Policymakers and finance mechanisms should view stable forests as a complementary element within a holistic, long-term approach to resource management.

• International mechanisms and national frameworks should be adjusted and resourced to promote the long-term sustainability and permanence of stable forests.

• Beyond additional resources, the climate benefits of stable forests may be best secured by pro-actively designing implementing policies that recognize the rights and interests of stakeholders who are affected by land management decisions.

     

A numerical model for one‐dimensional simulation of stratospheric chemistry

Abstract

We describe a one‐dimensional (1‐D) numerical model developed to simulate the chemistry of minor constituents in the stratosphere. The model incorporates most of the chemical species presently found in the upper atmosphere and has been used to investigate the effect of increasing chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions on ozone (O₃).

Our calculations confirm previous results that O₃ depletions in the 20–25 km region, the region of the O₃ maximum, are very sensitive to the relative abundances of Cl_x and NO_y in the lower stratosphere for high Cl_x amounts. The individual abundances of lower stratospheric Cl_x and NO_y amounts are very sensitive to upper tropospheric mixing ratios, which, in turn, are determined largely by surface input fluxes and heterogeneous loss processes. Thus the behaviour of column O₃ depletions at high Cl_x levels is greatly affected, albeit indirectly, by tropospheric processes. For high Cl_x levels the O_x flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere is dramatically reduced, leading to a large reduction in tropospheric O₃. Some of the variation between different published 1‐D model results is most likely due to this critical dependence of O₃ depletion on NO_y‐Cl_x ratios.

Model simulations of time‐dependent CFC effects on ozone indicate that if CFCs were to remain at constant 1980 emission rates while N₂O increased at 0.25% a^?1 and CH₄ increased at 1% a^?1, we could expect a 2.2% decrease in total column O₃ (relative to the 1980 atmosphere) by the year 2000. However, if CFC emission rates were to increase by 3% a^?1 (current estimates are 5–6% a^?1), we would predict a depletion of 2.7% by the year 2000. The calculations for times beyond the year 2000 suggest that the effects on total O₃ will begin to accelerate. If methyl chloroform emissions are added at 7% a^?1 (current estimates are 7–9% a^?1) to the above CFC‐N₂O‐CH₄ scenario we calculate total O₃ depletions by the year 2000 that are 41% larger than those calculated without. This suggests that if the emissions of methyl chloroform continue to increase at their present rate then methyl chloroform could have a significant effect upon total O₃.     

Impact of tropical instability waves on nutrient and chlorophyll distributions in the equatorial Pacific

This work quantifies the role of tropical instability waves (TIWs) in modulating nutrient and chlorophyll distributions in the equatorial Pacific through an analysis of satellite data and a case study of in situ observations. A TIW index is constructed to differentiate periods of strong and weak TIW activity. TIW impacts are first examined in monthly averaged satellite SST and chlorophyll data for three distinct regions north of the equator where TIWs are most active. The chlorophyll data are high-pass filtered to preserve the seasonal cycle and remove long-term trends. Although SST follows a predictable relationship with the TIW index, chlorophyll concentrations do not. Periods of high TIW activity are characterized by cooler SSTs but consistently low chlorophyll. A case study of individual TIW vortices demonstrates that their impact on nutrients and chlorophyll is a function of intensity. Strong TIWs drive reductions in nutrients and chlorophyll due to the subduction of nutrient-replete water north of the equator and the advection of nutrient-poor water toward the equator from adjacent to the upwelling zone. Weak TIWs do not drive these advective processes to the same degree, so retain elevated nutrients that fuel chlorophyll increases. The most positive effect on nutrients and chlorophyll by TIWs was observed during boreal winter, likely owing to thermocline topography. A shallower thermocline in combination with weak TIWs results in elevated nutrients and chlorophyll north of the equator. Given the variability associated with TIW intensity and season, generalizing TIW effects has proven difficult, but targeted Lagrangian studies will better characterize these dynamic features and their impact on elemental fluxes.     

Theoretical Simulation of Solar Ultraviolet Fluxes Measured on the 8 July 1974 Stratoprobe I flights

Solar ultraviolet fluxes in the wavelength region 1900 to 2300Å were measured during the first balloon flight of Project stratoprobe on July 8, 1974, over a range of solar zenith angles at a float altitude of 28.6 km. High‐resolution computer simulations of the measured spectra were made for a range of solar zenith angles of 40° to 80° over the wavelength region 2050 to 2150A, and comparisons made with the observed spectra at 40° and 47 °. Qualitative agreements were obtained but there were significant discrepancies between the simulated and experimentally obtained fluxes. Sources of the discrepancies are discussed.     

Understanding divergent perspectives in marine governance in Kenya

To understand the subtle institutional conditions that underlie marine governance, beyond broad conceptualisations of property rights or pre-defined institutional designs, it is necessary to situate governance structures and human interactions within their historical and current social and political context. A two-tiered stakeholder analysis was developed to facilitate this. This analytical tool illuminates divergent perspectives between actors in two marine social-ecological systems in Southern Kenya. Investigating these differences emphasises the variety of historical contexts, social geographies, and current power relations in which different groups are situated. These historical and contextual factors mediate how groups perceive and respond to governance. They, therefore, have important implications for how institutions function.