RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN DEBRIS FLOW RESEARCH IN ITALY

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Dendrogeomorphic dating of rockfalls on low‐latitude,high‐elevation slopes: Rodadero,Iztaccíhuatl volcano,Mexico

Dynamics and rates of rockfalls have been repeatedly studied in mountain environments with archival records as well as lichenometric, radiocarbon or dendrogeomorphic approaches. In this study, we test the potential of conifers growing at a low‐latitude, high‐elevation site as a dendrogeomorphic tool to reconstruct to calendar dates associated rockfall activity. Analysis is based on tree‐ring records of Mexican mountain pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) growing at timberline [~4000 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] and at the runout fringe of a north–northeast (NNE)‐facing slope of the dormant Iztaccíhuatl volcano (Mexico), which is subject to frequent rockfalls. The potential and limitations of tree‐ring data are demonstrated based on 67 rockfall impacts dated in the increment‐ring series of 24 trees since ad 1836. While findings of this paper are site‐specific, the study clearly shows the potential of dendrogeomorphic approaches in extra‐Alpine, low‐latitude environments and for the understanding of rockfall processes in space and time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global sensitivity analysis through polynomial chaos expansion of a basin-scale geochemical compaction model

We present a model-driven uncertainty quantification methodology based on sparse grid sampling techniques in the context of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (GPCE) approximation of a basin-scale geochemical evolution scenario. The approach is illustrated through a one-dimensional example involving the process of quartz cementation in sandstones and the resulting effects on the dynamics of the vertical distribution of porosity, pressure, and temperature. The proposed theoretical framework and computational tools allow performing an efficient and accurate global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the system states (i.e., porosity, temperature, pressure, and fluxes) in the presence of uncertain key mechanical and geochemical model parameters as well as boundary conditions. GSA is grounded on the use of the variance-based Sobol indices. These allow discriminating the relative weights of uncertain quantities on the global model variance and can be computed through the GPCE of the model response. Evaluation of the GPCE of the model response is performed through the implementation of a sparse grid approximation technique in the space of the selected uncertain quantities. GPCE is then be employed as a surrogate model of the system states to quantify uncertainty propagation through the model in terms of the probability distribution (and its statistical moments) of target system states.     

Constraints on the location of a putative distant massive body in the Solar System from recent planetary data

We analytically work out the long-term variations caused on the motion of a planet orbiting a star by a very distant, pointlike massive object X. Apart from the semi-major axis a, all the other Keplerian osculating orbital elements experience long-term variations which are complicated functions of the orbital configurations of both the planet itself and of X. We infer constraints on the minimum distance d _X at which X may exist by comparing our prediction of the long-term variation of the longitude of the perihelion \({\varpi}\) to the latest empirical determinations of the corrections \({\Delta\dot\varpi}\) to the standard Newtonian/Einsteinian secular precessions of several solar system planets recently estimated by independent teams of astronomers. We obtain the following approximate lower bounds on d _X for the assumed masses of X quoted in brackets: 150–200 au (Mars), 250–450 au \(({0.7 m_{\oplus}})\), 3500–4500 au (4 m _Jup).     

Predictive potential of Perzyna viscoplastic modelling for granular geomaterials

This paper reappraises Perzyna-type viscoplasticity for the constitutive modelling of granular geomaterials, with emphasis on the simulation of rate/time effects of different magnitude. An existing elasto-plastic model for sands is first recast into a Perzyna viscoplastic formulation and then calibrated/validated against laboratory test results on Hostun sand from the literature. Notable model features include (1) enhanced definition of the viscous nucleus function and (2) void ratio dependence of stiffness and viscous parameters, to model the pycnotropic behaviour of granular materials with a single set of parameters, uniquely identified against standard creep and triaxial test results. The comparison between experimental data and numerical simulations points out the predicative capability of the developed model and the complexity of defining a unique viscous nucleus function to capture sand behaviour under different loading/initial/boundary and drainage conditions. It is concluded that the unified viscoplastic simulation of both drained and undrained response is particularly challenging within Perzyna's framework and opens to future research in the area. The discussion presented is relevant, for instance, to the simulation of multiphase strain localisation phenomena, such as those associated to slope stability problems in variably saturated soils.     

Testing the Universal Soil Loss Equation‐MB equation in plots in Central and South Italy

Planning soil conservation strategies requires predictive techniques at event scale because a large percentage of soil loss over a long‐time period is due to relatively few large storms. Considering runoff is expected to improve soil loss predictions and allows relation of the process‐oriented approach with the empirical one, furthermore, the effects of detachment and transport on soil erosion processes can be distinguished by a runoff component. In this paper, the empirical model USLE‐MB (USLE‐M based), including a rainfall‐runoff erosivity factor in which the event rainfall erosivity index EI₃₀ of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) multiplies the runoff coefficient Q_R raised to an exponent b₁ > 1 is tested by the measurements carried out for the Masse (10 plots) and Sparacia (22 plots) experimental stations in Italy. For the Masse experimental station, an exponent b₁ > 1 was also estimated by tests carried out by a nozzle‐type rainfall simulator. For each experimental site in fallow conditions, the effect of the sample size of the plot soil loss measurements on the estimate of the b₁ coefficient was also studied by the extraction of a fixed number N of randomly obtained pairs of the normalized soil loss and runoff coefficient. The analysis showed that the variability of b₁ with N is low and that 350 pairs are sufficient to obtain a stable estimate of b₁. A total of 1,262 soil loss data were used to parameterize the model both locally and considering the two sites simultaneously. The b₁ exponent varied between the two sites (1.298–1.520), but using a common exponent (1.386) was possible. Using a common b₁ exponent for the two experimental areas increases the practical interest for the model and allows the estimation of a baseline component of the soil erodibility factor, which is representative of the at‐site soil intrinsic and quasi‐static properties. Development of a single USLE‐MB model appears possible, and sampling other sites is advisable to develop a single USLE‐MB model for general use.     

Seismic improvement of slender masonry tower by using hysteretic devices and partial prestressing technique

An innovative system for seismic improvement of slender masonry towers by using hysteretic devices and partial prestressing technique was developed and applied to a case study. The proposed technique consists in a low level of prestressing of the upper part of the tower in order to localize in the un-prestressed lower part of the tower, i.e. a limited zone near the basement, the vertical displacements due to the cracking of masonry under seismic action. The positioning of dissipative devices, such as the Buckling-Restrained Axial Dampers, across the localization zone allows a significant contribution in terms of damping for hysteretic dissipation. The main effect of such an intervention is the reduction of the seismic demand to the tower and consequently the reduction of the top displacement as well as of the level of damage of the masonry. Both numerical analyses and experimental tests on a scale model of a Venetian bell tower were carried out showing the efficiency and reliability of the proposed technique.     

Seasonal surface ocean circulation and dynamics in the Philippine Archipelago region during 2004–2008

The dynamics of the seasonal surface circulation in the Philippine Archipelago (117°E–128°E, 0°N–14°N) are investigated using a high-resolution configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the period of January 2004–March 2008. Three experiments were performed to estimate the relative importance of local, remote and tidal forcing. On the annual mean, the circulation in the Sulu Sea shows inflow from the South China Sea at the Mindoro and Balabac Straits, outflow into the Sulawesi Sea at the Sibutu Passage, and cyclonic circulation in the southern basin. A strong jet with a maximum speed exceeding 100 cm s⁻¹ forms in the northeast Sulu Sea where currents from the Mindoro and Tablas Straits converge. Within the Archipelago, strong westward currents in the Bohol Sea carry the surface water of the western Pacific (WP) from the Surigao Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Dipolog Strait. In the Sibuyan Sea, currents flow westward, which carry the surface water from the WP near the San Bernardino Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Tablas Strait.These surface currents exhibit strong variations or reversals from winter to summer. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation during winter (summer) in the Sulu Sea and seasonally reversing currents within the Archipelago region during the peak of the winter (summer) monsoon result mainly from local wind forcing, while remote forcing dominates the current variations at the Mindoro Strait, western Sulu Sea and Sibutu passage before the monsoons reach their peaks. The temporal variations (with the mean removed), also referred to as anomalies, of volume transports in the upper 40 m at eight major Straits are caused predominantly by remote forcing, although local forcing can be large during sometime of a year. For example, at the Mindoro Strait, the correlation between the time series of transport anomalies due to total forcing (local, remote and tides) and that due only to the remote forcing is 0.81 above 95% significance, comparing to the correlation of 0.64 between the total and local forcing. Similarly, at the Sibutu Passage, the correlation is 0.96 for total versus remote effects, comparing to 0.53 for total versus local forcing. The standard deviations of transports from the total, remote and local effects are 0.59 Sv, 0.50 Sv, and 0.36 Sv, respectively, at the Mindoro Strait; and 1.21 Sv, 1.13 Sv, and 0.59 Sv at the Sibutu Passage. Nonlinear rectification of tides reduces the mean westward transports at the Surigao, San Bernardino and Dipolog Straits, and it also has non-negligible influence on the seasonal circulation in the Sulu Sea.