上海数字强震观测网

上海市数字强震观测网是我国第1个具有一定规模的数字强震观测网，是上海市“九五”期间建设完成的，它由3部分组成；地面观测网，结构观测网和深井强震观测系统，每一部分都有不同的功能和目的，本文详细介绍该强震网的整个概况。功能及取得的部分观测成果。     

长江口海域新生代地层与断裂活动性初探

长江口海域通过浅层人工地震勘察查明，新生代地层可分为5个地震层。分别为第四系、上新统、中新统上段、中新统下段及始新统。第三纪地层自东北向西南依次超覆、减薄尖灭，上部被第四纪地层不整合覆盖。沉积基底主要由晚侏罗世火山岩系及燕山晚期酸性小岩体构成，未发现早第三纪及晚白垩世断陷盆地。断裂构造很发育，按展布方向大体可归为北东、北西及近东西向3组，皆为正断层。前两者数量多、延伸长、断距大，与同区的航磁异常构架吻合。北东向断裂分段明显，西南段为第四纪断裂，中段为晚第三纪断裂，东北段为早第三纪断裂；而北西向断裂分段不很清晰。两者的垂直位移速率平均在0．015mm/a。本文对该海域有关的几个地质问题进行了讨论。     

河流深槽沉积体与油气的关系——以辽河坳陷大25井区为例

河流深槽沉积体是河流沉积的一种特殊沉积体。辽河坳陷第三纪断裂活动强烈，火山岩广泛分布，形成了独特的地貌条件，具备形成河流深槽沉积体的地质条件。本文以辽河坳陷东部凹陷大２５井区为例，对河流深槽沉积体的成因及特征进行探讨，证实了大２５井区巨厚砂砾岩沉积是河流在火山岩古地形的限制下发生急转弯，在其变曲河段的深槽中沉积的深槽沉积体。该沉积体中发育良好的储集空间，有利于油气储集。该类储集体的发现，丰富了辽河坳陷的储层类型，为油气勘探提供了新的领域。     

Attenuation relations of ground motion for rock and soil sites in eastern United States

This paper presents the attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations for rock and soil sites in the central and eastern United States (CEUS). For the bedrock site condition, 56 pairs of moment magnitude M and epicentral distance R are used to simulate ground motion, and for each pair of M and R, 550 samples of ground motion parameters are generated using a seismological model together with random vibration theory and distribution of extreme values. From the regression analyses of these data, the attenuation relations of ground motion parameters for the bedrock site are established. With the aid of appropriate site coefficients, these attenuation relations are modified for the site categories specified in the 1994 NEHRP Provisions. These attenuation relations are appropriate for the assessment of seismic hazards at far-field rock and soil sites in the CEUS.     

The characteristics of Quaternary activity of faults in the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth

Introduction As far as the frequency and magnitude are concerned, the earthquakes in the sea area to the east of Shanghai are far more strong than in land area with the largest one in the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth being MS=436, while in land, only MS=434 occurred on Sept. 1, 1624. As a moderately strong earthquake active area, the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth, may cause a potential risk to Shanghai. In 1971 and 1996, earthquakes with MS=5~6 occurred in this area. Geo…     

Preliminary Study on Cenozoic Group and Fault Activity in the Sea Area Near the Yangtze River Mouth

By shallow seismic prospecting, the Cenozoic Group in the sea area near the Yangtze Rver Mouth can be divided into five seismic sequences. They correspond to the Quaternary,Pliocene, Upper Miocene, Lower Miocene and Eocene respectively. The Quaternary System covers all the detecting area. The Tertiary System overlaps and thins out from NE to SW. The sedimentary basement mainly consists of volcanic rock (J3) and acidic rock (r35). Paleogene or Late Cretaceous basins are not found there. The faults that have been detected are all normal faults. They can be divided into three groups (NE, NW, near EW) by their trend. The NE and NW-trending faults are predominant, and agree with aeromagnetic anomaly. Their length and displacement are larger than that of the EW-trending faults. The activity of the NEtrending faults is different in different segments. The SW segment is a Quaternary fault, the middle segment is a Neogene fault, The NE is Paleogene. But the segment of the NW-trending fault is not obvious. The average vertical displacement rate is about 0.015mm/a.     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于Fisher判别的南方双季稻低温灾害等级预警

为了建立南方双季稻低温灾害综合预测预警技术体系, 基于南方双季稻种植区1961—2010年708个气象站的逐日气象资料、水稻生育期资料和低温灾害发生的气象行业标准,采用Fisher判别分析法、因子膨化法、相关性分析法,利用SPSS软件构建早稻春季低温灾害高风险区 (Ⅰ区) 未来10 d、晚稻寒露风高风险区 (Ⅰ区)、主灾区 (Ⅱ区) 未来5 d的低温灾害发生等级逐日滚动预警模型。其中,1961—2009年资料用于模型构建和回代检验,2010年资料用于模型的外延预测。结果表明:早稻、晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅰ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别达到90.5%,74.2%,80.3%,晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅱ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别为89.4%和80.3%。构建的南方双季稻低温灾害逐日滚动预警模型的外延预测基本一致准确率多超过80%,等级预测检验误差总体上在1个等级以内,模型评价效果较好。     

夏季热带北大西洋海温异常对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响

利用1979—2012年西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径资料,Hadley中心的海温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,研究了夏季(6—10月)热带北大西洋海温异常与西北太平洋热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)生成的关系及其可能机制。结果表明,夏季热带北大西洋海温异常与同期西北太平洋TC生成频次之间存在显著的负相关关系。热带北大西洋海温的异常增暖可产生一对东—西向分布的偶极型低层异常环流,其中气旋性异常环流位于北大西洋/东太平洋地区,反气旋异常环流位于西北太平洋地区。该反气旋环流异常使得TC主要生成区的对流活动受到抑制、低层涡度正异常、中低层相对湿度负异常、中层下沉气流异常,这些动力/热力条件均不利于TC生成。此外,西北太平洋地区低层涡旋动能负异常,同时来自大尺度环流的涡旋动能的正压转换也受到抑制,不能为TC的生成和发展提供额外能量源。反之亦然。     

青藏高原片麻岩穹窿与找矿前景

片麻岩穹窿是研究俯冲-折返和碰撞-折返造山过程的重要窗口。已查明的大量青藏高原片麻岩穹窿(群)分布在古特提斯和新特提斯大洋俯冲-折返以及地体碰撞-折返过程中。松潘-甘孜造山带中雅江甲基卡片(麻)岩穹窿的三叠纪变质片岩的含矿伟晶岩脉中发现了超大型锂矿床,揭示片(麻)岩穹窿构造与同构造花岗岩、含矿伟晶岩脉以及大型印支滑脱带在时空和成因上有天然联系,为片麻岩穹窿的找矿前景提供了范例。