从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

Kinetic-simulating experiment combined with GC-IRMS analysis: application to identification and assessment of coal-derived methane from Zhongba Gas Field (Sichuan Basin, China)

The main purpose of this study is to model the δ¹³C values of methane derived from coal by combining kinetic-simulating experiment with the gas chromatography-isotope ratio mass spectrum (GC-IRMS) analysis. The stable carbon isotopic variation of methane in pyrolysates with heating temperature indicates that the assumptions for both a constant kinetic isotope effect (α) and a uniform initial isotopic composition (δ¹³C_o) are impractical for explaining the carbon isotopic fractionation during coalification. For purposes of simplification, two approaches are used in this paper to deal with the heterogeneity of terrestrial organic matter. One is that, assuming a uniform initial isotopic composition (i.e., δ¹³C_{i, o}=δ¹³C_o) for all methane-generating precursors in coal, the isotopic variation of methane is fitted by adjusting ΔE_{a, i} (E_{a¹³C, i}−E_{a¹²C, i}) for each hypothetical reaction. The other is that, assuming a constant kinetic isotope effect during the whole gas formation, that is all ΔE_{a, i} values are identical, the modeling of methane isotopic composition is achieved by changing the ¹³CH₄ generation potential of each reaction (f_{i, ¹³C}), namely, by adjusting the initial δ¹³C value (δ¹³C_{i, o}) for each methane-generating precursor. Results of the kinetic calculation shows that the two simulating methods can yield a similar result at a geological heating rate of 2 °C/My, which further demonstrates that those natural gases with methane δ¹³C value being approximately −36‰ are possibly sourced from the upper Triassic coal measure strata in the Northwestern Sichuan Basin.     

Estimating coefficients of volume compressibility from compression of strata and piezometric changes in a multiaquifer system in west Taiwan

This paper estimates the coefficients of volume compressibility from variation in compressible layer thickness and changes in piezometric heads by using detail ground surface surveys and a multilayer monitoring well at a selected site (Shigang) within the Choshui River alluvial fan in west Taiwan. The paper integrates various types of in situ monitoring tools, including leveling surveys, continuous global position system (GPS) stations, multilevel layer compression and groundwater pressure head-monitoring wells, to investigate the situation and progress of the subsidence problem in the region. The results from the cross-analyses of the measured data show that surface settlement caused by the compression of strata is between the depths of 60 and 210 m where the clayey stratum within 120-180 m was most pronounced and contributes up to 53% of the total compression. The results indicate that the clayey stratum is under normal consolidation. The results also reflect the fact that 20% of settlement contribution comes from the sandy stratum within 90-120 m; the elasto-plastic behavior of this sandy stratum is clear. The coefficients of volume compressibility of the clayey and sandy stratum analysed from the stratum's compression records; they were 6.38×10⁻⁸ and 5.71×10⁻⁹ m²/N, respectively. Ultimately, this parameter estimation would permit to control and predict land subsidence based on change in pressure head which are related to groundwater extraction.     

On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

Improving Sequential Simulation with a Structured Path Guided by Information Content

Multiple-point simulation is a newly developed geostatistical method that aims at combining the strengths of two mainstream geostatistical methods: object-based and pixel-based methods. It maintains the flexibility of pixel-based algorithms in data conditioning, while enhancing its capability of reproducing realistic geological shapes, which is traditionally reserved to object-based algorithms. However, the current snesim program for multiple-point simulation has difficulty in reproducing large-scale structures, which have a significant impact on the flow response. To address this problem, we propose to simulate along a structured path based on an information content measure. This structured path accounts for not only the information from the data, but also some prior structural information provided by geological knowledge. Various case studies show a better reproduction of large-scale structures. This concept of simulating along a structured path guided by information content can be applied to any sequential simulation algorithms, including traditional variogram-based two-point geostatistical algorithms.     

Simulations of a coupled hydro-chemo-mechanical system in rocks

A coupled hydro-chemo-mechanical numerical model is developed for these coupled phenomena in many engineering fields. The model has been applied to predicting the response of a stressed rockmass column to an injected reactive fluid (reagent) flow. The response includes evolutions of porosity, permeability, reagent and mineral concentrations during dissolution. In the model, the progress of dissolution is defined by the change in porosity ratio and the porosity increases with dissolution assuming there is no precipitation. The numerical evolutions of porosity, permeability, reagent and mineral concentrations during dissolution are validated against steady state solutions. The model results show that these evolutions are regulated to a certain extent by the applied external loadings: an applied extensional stress enhances the progress of the dissolution process while an applied compression stress slows the progress of the dissolution process. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The influence of hydrocarbon expulsion on carbon isotopic compositions of individual n-alkanes in pyrolysates of selected terrestrial kerogens

Expulsion of petroleum from source rock is a complex part of the entire migration process. There exist fractional effects on chemical compositions in hydrocarbon expulsion. Does the carbon isotopic fractionation occur during expulsion and to what extent? Here the influence of hydrocarbon expulsion on carbon isotopic compositions of individual n-alkanes from pyrolysates of selected terrestrial kerogens from Tuha basin and Fushun, Liaoning Province of China has been experimentally studied. The pyrogeneration-expulsion experiments were carried out under semi-closed system. The carbon isotopic compositions of individual n-alkanes were measured by GC-IRMS. The main conclusions are as follows. First, there is carbon isotopic fractionation associated with hydrocarbon expulsion from Type III kerogens in Tuha Basin. There exist differences of carbon isotopic compositions between the unexpelled n-alkanes and expelled n-alkanes from Tuha desmocollinite and Tuha mudstone. Second, there is almost no carbon isotopic fractionation associated with hydrocarbon expulsion from Type II kerogens in Fushun and Liaohe Basin. Third, carbon isotopic fractionation in hydrocarbon expulsion should be considered in making oil-source correlation of Type III kerogens at least in the Tuha Basin. Further studies need to be carried out to determine whether this is true in other basins. Fourth, oil and source at different maturity levels cannot be correlated directly for Type III kerogens since the carbon isotopic compositions of expelled hydrocarbons at different temperatures are different. The expelled hydrocarbons are usually lighter (depleted in ¹³C) than the hydrocarbons remaining in the source rock at the same maturity.     

基于等高线的DEM生成算法研究和实现

数字高程模型是近年来发展起来的为地理信息系统提供空间分析和辅助决策的数据基础。随着科学技术特别是计算机技术的迅速发展，DEM在数据获取方法、数据存储和数据处理速度等方面已经取得突破性进展。通过系统介绍生成DTM过程中等高线的离散化方法，DELAUNAY三角网的特性和基于等高线数据的TIN的建立，以及对产生的问题的一些解决方法。     

基础地理信息应用服务研究

本文全面、系统地分析了基础地理信息在地理信息产业中的作用、基础地理信息的各种应用，并在此基础上提出了基础地理信息的服务策略。